US retail activity in November 2024 showed a slight increase on a month-by-month comparison despite key shopping days falling into December, says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.
Clothing and accessory stores saw a slight sales decline of 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis but enjoyed a 4.21% annual uplift on an unadjusted basis.
General merchandise stores also experienced a negligible decrease of 0.05% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis but grew by 2.01% annually on an unadjusted basis.
“November sales increased on top of a strong October and would have been even higher if Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday hadn’t fallen in December. Year-over-year gains were solid even as retail prices in many categories are lower this year, showing that consumers are buying more merchandise as the economy continues to grow. We remain confident in our holiday forecast,” Matthew Shay said.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, backed by Affinity Solutions, November’s total retail sales, with the exclusion of automobile and gasoline transactions, showed a 0.15% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, and a 2.35% surge on an unadjusted basis from the same month last year.
This growth is modest compared to October’s figures, which displayed a 0.74% month-over-month and a 4.13% year-over-year increases.
When isolating core retail sales, which eliminate the impact of restaurants, automobile dealerships, and gasoline stations, the numbers slightly dipped by 0.19% from October to November.
However, they still marked a 1.43% increase from November of the previous year. This contrasted with October’s more robust growth of 0.83% month-over-month and 4.59% year-over-year.
Cumulatively, total sales for the first eleven months of 2024 have risen by 2.15% compared to the same period in the previous year, while core sales have seen a 2.33% uptick.
These figures emerge as the NRF predicts a 2.5% to 3.5% growth in retail sales for the holiday season spanning November to December, relative to 2023.
Breaking down November’s performance by retail categories, five out of nine sectors experienced annual gains, with leading contributions from online sales, grocery and beverage outlets, and clothing and accessory stores. Monthly gains were observed in two categories.
A closer look at sector-specific data reveals:
Online and other non-store sales advanced by 1.32% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and soared by 21.48% on an unadjusted annual basis.
Recently, NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz stated expectations for a strong holiday sales period are intact following a robust third quarter and positive economic indicators.
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