Besinethemba lonyaka ka-2021 “oqhelekileyo” ngakumbi, kodwa xa usenza ujonge ngakumbi njengohlobo “lokulingana.” Oko kuthethiweyo, ishishini lolawulo lwe-asethi libe nethamsanqa - kunye nohlengahlengiso oluthile (kwaye ngakumbi uhambo oluncinci) siqhube ishishini lethu ngempumelelo. Imozulu, kunye ne-ESG ngokubanzi, zihlala ziphambili kwi-ajenda yomntu wonke, kodwa phantsi kwebhonethi isantya sotshintsho sikhulu, kunye nenkqubela phambili enkulu kwidatha, ukuhlanganiswa kwenkqubo yotyalo-mali kunye nohlalutyo lwemozulu. Nangona kunjalo, into enkulu "eyaziwayo engaziwayo" yinto eyenzekayo kwi-macro backdrop (kwaye nini) kunye neziphumo zeemarike...Sinikezela ngeengcinga malunga noku ngezantsi, kunye nolunye uqikelelo lwethu luka-2022.
Iingcamango ezili-10 kuLawulo lwe-Asethi ngo-2022
1. I-macro tailwinds iyaphela, ikhupha umoya kwiiseyile zabaphathi.
Iimeko eziqhube iimarike ukuba zibe phezulu zikulungele ukubuya njengoko iireyithi zinyukela phezulu, inkuthazo yemali ebekujoliswe kuyo irhoxiswa, kwaye iibhanki ezingoovimba ziphinda ziphinde zithenge izinto zexabiso. Oku kuya kudala ukubalwa kwabaphathi be-asethi abaye baphuhla kumashishini abo, baxhomekeke kakhulu ekungeneni kokuqhuba kwe-beta ngaphandle kwe-alpha ephakathi, okanye abaxhomekeke kakhulu kwixabiso eliphantsi lokuxhasa imiqulu yokwenziwa kwezivumelwano kunye nembuyekezo yengxowa-mali. Iza kuphinda imise iipateni zemfuno yemveliso, izicwangciso eziluncedo, iindidi ze-asethi kunye nejografi (umzekelo, ixabiso, ii-asethi zokwenyani ezikwaziyo ukumelana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, izibambiso ezinobuthathaka bokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye neebhaskithi zempahla yorhwebo, ukukhetha amazwe asahlumayo orhwebo) angakhange atsale ngqalelo ingako okanye angakhange athandeke xa kuthelekiswa neemeko zemarike ezikhulayo.
2. Abaphathi bemveli bafumana indlela ethile…nayiphi na indlela yokungena kwiimalike zealts nakwiimarike zabucala.
Abadlali bemveli abafuna ukwandisa kwiindlela ezizezinye kunye neemarike zabucala kodwa bafumanisa ukuxatyiswa kwezinto ezinokubakho kuphezulu kakhulu okanye baxhalabile malunga neengozi zokudibanisa, baya kwandisa ngokwemvelo kwindawo ye-semi-liquid yeeklasi ze-asethi zemveli (umzekelo, indawo ye-IPO yangaphambili kwi-equities, okanye i-CLO / iimali-mboleko ezidibeneyo kwingeniso esisigxina). Abanye baya kuluma i-bullet kwaye bahlawule nantoni na efunekayo ukukhusela i-alts kunye nezakhono zemarike yabucala, nokuba yinkampani epheleleyo okanye abantu abanexabiso eliphezulu abanamava afanelekileyo, irekhodi kunye noqhagamshelwano. Uxinzelelo lokufumana amathuba okukhula okunenzuzo luye lwafikelela kwinqanaba apho umngcipheko wokungabi nabu buchule uya kuba mkhulu kunomngcipheko wokuhlawula ngaphezulu okanye ukudityaniswa okumdaka.
3. Ukubetha "igesi" - i-tokenization iqhuba isigaba esilandelayo sedemokhrasi yemarike yabucala.
Idemokhrasi yee-asethi zabucala iqokelele isantya kwiminyaka yakutshanje njengoko abaphathi bejolise kudidi olutsha lwabatyali-mali abanezakhiwo ezinokuthengisa kwaye njengoko amaqonga ethekhnoloji anciphisa umthwalo wolawulo wokusasaza kunye notyalo-mali kwiimveliso zentengiso yabucala. Njengoko iziseko ezingundoqo zokugqibela zakhelwe ukuxhasa ukwenziwa kwee-asethi zentengiso yabucala, iya kungenisa igagasi elilandelayo lofikelelo lomtyali-mali ngokunciphisa iindleko, ukunyusa izinga lemalike yentengiso yesibini, kunye nokwenza ukuba kufikelelwe ngamaqhezu. Oku kuya kuvula amathuba amatsha kwiimarike zabucala kubaphathi be-asethi abanokwakha iimveliso ezinyanzelisayo, kunye neenkqubo ezixhasayo, iinkqubo kunye nolawulo olufunekayo ukuze kuthatyathwe ithuba lethekhinoloji yeleja esasaziweyo.
4. Ugqatso lokufumana inkunzi yexesha elide luya kuqina.
Iqhutywa ngumnqweno weshishini wemithombo ezinzileyo yemali eyinkunzi kwaye ikhuthazwa kukuzimisela kwabatyali-mali ukuncama imali yokuhlawula amatyala ukuze bafikelele kubaphathi abakumgangatho ophezulu, kuya kubakho amaza eemali ezintsha zexesha elide okanye ezisisigxina eziququzelela utyalo-mali kwii-asethi ezingekho mthethweni. Ngokuhambelana nalo mkhwa, abaphathi be-asethi - kubandakanywa abarhanelwa abaqhelekileyo (i-equity yabucala / iifemu zamatyala abucala), kunye neebhanki ezinezixhobo ezizezinye zotyalo-mali kunye nabaphathi bendabuko, ngakumbi abo bagxininise umvuzo osisigxina okanye ilifa le-inshurensi yotyalo-mali - baya kukhuphisana kwishishini le-inshurensi njengenxalenye yesicwangciso sokutshixa kwimithombo yenkxaso-mali yexesha elide. Oku kuya kukhawulezisa ngakumbi indima ebalulekileyo edlalwa ngabaphathi bee-asethi ekuguquleni icandelo le-inshorensi libe ngumjelo wokudibanisa inkunzi ibe yizicwangciso eziliqili zesivuno/imbuyekezo.
5. Indawo elawulayo "yokutshisa," ngakumbi malunga nokuhlanjululwa luhlaza.
Abalawuli bayanda ukubamba abaphathi ukuba baphendule kwiindawo ezininzi, kodwa ngokubonakalayo malunga nokuhlanjululwa kohlaza apho kukhula ngamandla kuwo omabini amacala eAtlantiki. Ulawulo luya kuba luqikelelo ngakumbi, ukuya kuthi ga ekuziseni "ileyibhile yezondlo" kwiimveliso ze-ESG, ubambe abaphathi be-asethi uxanduva lokunikezela ngesithembiso sabo sotyalo-mali lwe-ESG kunye nexabiso lemali.
6. Ukusuka kwiimveliso zeESG ukuya kumava e-ESG.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, uninzi lujolise ekuphuhliseni nasekuqaliseni iimveliso ze-ESG ukwanelisa imfuno ekhulayo yazo zonke izinto ezibhalwe ESG. Oku kuza kutshintsha njengoko abaxumi beqonda ukuba iimfuno zabo azifezekiswa ngokupheleleyo ngokuthenga nje iimveliso ezingacalulwanga. Nangona zonke iimveliso ziya kufuna ukwanelisa iimfuno ezisisiseko zezemali, abaphathi be-asethi abakhokelayo baya kuthatha indlela "yomthengi wokuqala" kunye namava oyilo olupheleleyo - apho imveliso yoyilo yinto enye nje - ukwanelisa iimfuno eziphezulu ezifana nokuzalisekisa injongo, ukudala impembelelo, ukwakha ukuthembela kunye nengqiqo yoluntu, kunye nokubangela uvuyo.
7. Inyani iba yinyani.
Ngokusekwe kuphando lwangaphambili phambi kobhubhane, siqikelele ukuba umphathi we-asethi ngokupheleleyo unokusebenza ngesiseko seendleko ezisezantsi ezingama-40%. Amava kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo agxininise ukuba imodeli enjalo inokuba kufutshane nenyani kunentsomi yesayensi. Ngelixa uninzi lweefemu ziya kuhlala kwimodeli yokusebenza exutyiweyo, abanye abathungi baya kuthathela ingqalelo ngokunzulu ukushiya iofisi kunye nokunxibelelana nomntu, ngokungakhathali bafake idijithali, kwaye apho ingengondoqo ekuboneleleni ngexabiso, bakhuphe yonke imiba yeshishini labo. Abasebenzi baya kuzikhethela ngokwabo kule mizi-mveliso banikwe isindululo sexabiso elikhethekileyo njengoko beya kuba njalo abathengi abaxabisa ithemba lemirhumo ephantsi kunye nokusebenza okuphuculweyo kwenethi kumava aphezulu.
8. Ukuhanjiswa kweendleko eziphezulu ngabaphathi bee-asethi.
Indlela yokuthengisa ngokusebenzisa abameli bezemali ayitshintshanga kangako kumashumi eminyaka; ihlala iyinkqubo yokuthengisa ekhokelwa yimveliso kunye nemifanekiso esisiseko yokusebenza kunye neengcaciso zemveliso. Oku kuya kutshintsha njengoko abaphathi be-asethi bethatha izinto ezandleni zabo kwaye bayile iingcebiso zedijithali kunye nezixhobo zokunika ingxelo ukunceda abasasazi baphakamise amava omthengi wokugqibela. Iyakuguqula intsebenziswano yabathengi ukusuka kwenye yeemveliso ezithengisayo ukuya kwelinye lamabali athengisayo - amabali abathengi abanokunxibelelana nawo, ngokweemvakalelo nangokwasengqondweni. Oku kuya supercharge ukusasazwa ngeendlela ukuba sithembele ukusebenza ngokwemali yemveli, iprofayile umngcipheko kunye neencoko Holdings-based nje ayikwazi ukuhambelana.
9. Iinzame zaseChina zokwakha elunxwemeni ziyaqina.
Phakathi kongenelelo lolawulo kurhwebo kunye nokungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko, ngo-2021 ubone ukusekwa kunye nokuguqulwa kweqela leenkampani ezisebenzisanayo, kunye nezibhengezo zamaphulo adibeneyo olawulo lobutyebi bamanye amazwe (iqumrhu lolawulo lwempahla, ngaphandle kwegama). Njengoko abadlali behlabathi besebenza ngokupheleleyo, ugxininiso luya kusuka ekufumaneni iilayisensi ukuya kukhuphiswano lweshishini. Abaphathi behlabathi abaphambili ngakumbi e-China baya kuqalisa ukuphuhlisa izicwangciso zasekhaya ezihlukeneyo (umzekelo, i-ESG, i-REITs, i-cross-border, njl.), ukulungelelanisa ukuhanjiswa kweendawo zendawo (umzekelo, ukusetyenziswa kwe-WeChat, njl.), apho imfuno yendawo inokutyhala rhoqo umda wemigaqo yemodeli yokusebenza yeqela.
10. Ukuguqulwa, ukuguqulwa, kunye nokuguqulwa - i-M & A iya kuphinda ihlaziye ishishini ngeendlela ezininzi.
Abadlali beshishini elikhulu baya kuthathela ingqalelo izivumelwano ezinkulu kwaye balandele i-M&A ngokukhutheleyo njengeemfuno kunye neenzuzo zokukhula zibe zikhulu kakhulu ukuba zingahoywa. Oku kubandakanya ukufikelela okuphuculweyo kokusasazwa; ukugcina kugqatso lwezixhobo zokuchitha kwitekhnoloji ephezulu, idatha, kunye netalente yobungakanani; ukufikelela kwiimarike ezikhula ngokukhawuleza; kunye nokwandisa amandla okusebenza. Kwangaxeshanye, iifemu zezabelo zabucala ziyakukhetha ngokukhethayo amashishini asele ekhulile, adumbileyo (aphakathi kunye namakhulu) kwaye asebenzise iindlela zokudala ixabiso labucala ukuze kuqhutywe utshintsho oluyimfuneko oluxhathise amaqela olawulo akhoyo. Kwezinye iimeko, baya kukhawulezisa isantya somsebenzi wabo ekuthatheni izikhundla zobunini ngokuyinxenye kwiifemu ezinobungakanani obuphakathi (ingakumbi abaphathi bealts) apho abaseki/abalawuli bejonge “ukukhupha iitshiphusi etafileni” kwaye ngokuyinxenye benze imali ngezikhundla zabo zobunini.
Siyathemba ukuba ezi ngcinga zikunika ukutya ukuze uqalise ingxoxo enika umdla. Ngaba usazise ukuba ungathanda ukuxoxa ngayo nantoni na ngakumbi.
Umthombo ovela Oliver Wyman
Ulwazi olubekwe ngasentla lunikezelwa ngu-Oliverwyman ngokuzimeleyo kwe-Chovm.com. I-Chovm.com ayenzi lumelo kunye neziqinisekiso malunga nomgangatho kunye nokuthembeka komthengisi kunye neemveliso.
