Sonke siye sazibuza ixesha elithile ngoku: Amaxabiso emodyuli ye-photovoltaic anokuhla kangakanani ngaphambi kokuba ekugqibeleni kufikelelwe? Ngokucacileyo, kusekho indawo yokwehla ngakumbi, njengoko onke amaxabiso ehlile kwakhona kule nyanga.
Ngokwe-avareji, amaxabiso kuzo zonke iindidi zeemodyuli alungiswe ezantsi malunga ne-10%. Akuzange kube ngaphambili kwimbali ye-photovoltaics amaxabiso ephaneli ehla kakhulu ngexesha elifutshane. Kwinyanga okanye ezimbini ngoku, amaxabiso ebengaphantsi kwexesha eliphantsi langaphambili lika-2020 kwaye nangaphezulu ngaphantsi kweendleko zemveliso yabaninzi abavelisi. Ukuvelisa imida yenzuzo kubonakala ngathi yinto yexesha elidlulileyo okwangoku kwaye kuninzi lwabo ngoku yinto nje yokunciphisa umonakalo okanye ukusinda.
Sinokufikelela njani koku, yaye bangoobani oonobangela bolu tyekelo lokuzitshabalalisa?
Okokuqala, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba amaxabiso emodyuli anyuke ngaphezulu kwe-50% phakathi kuka-Okthobha wama-2020 kunye no-Okthobha ka-2022, okungabangelwa kuphuhliso lwetekhnoloji, kodwa ngenxa yokunqongophala kobonelelo olunxulumene nobhubhane oludityaniswa nokunyuka kwemfuno ngaxeshanye. Ekugqibeleni, abaninzi abadlali kwiimarike ze-photovoltaic benza imali enhle kakhulu - ngeendleko zabathengi bokugqibela. Kuze kube kutshanje, ixabiso lenkqubo ye-photovoltaic laliphezulu kunokuba lide ixesha elide. Ngoku izinto zitshintshe ngokupheleleyo, nto leyo ekhokelela ekwehleni kwamaxabiso. Isantya kunye nokuqina kolu tshintsho, nangona kunjalo, kuyamangalisa nabathathi-nxaxheba bemarike abanamava.
Emva kwemiba yokunqongophala kweminyaka emibini edlulileyo, abaninzi abafakeli kunye nabathengisi bevenkile benza uqikelelo lwesisa kwaye bayalela iimpahla ezintsha ngokungathi akukho ngomso. Abavelisi, ikakhulu abavela e-Asiya, baye basabela kwaye bawandisa amandla abo. Umthamo wemveliso wehlabathi ukholisa ukodlula eyona mfuno ilindelekileyo nge-30% ukuya kwi-50%, ukuze ukuguquguquka kuhlawulelwe ngokukhawuleza. Imigca yemveliso ke iye yanyuswa okanye iphantsi njengoko kufuneka. Kutshanje, nangona kunjalo, lo matshini uphume kancinci esandleni njengoko abavelisi abaninzi kuye kwafuneka batshintshe iseli kunye nemveliso yemodyuli ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwitekhnoloji ye-p-uhlobo lwe-PERC ukuya kuhlobo lwe-n-TOPCon, ngenxa yeengxaki zamalungelo omenzi kwingingqi nganye. Nangona kunjalo, kuba izithintelo zokuthengisa azizange zisebenze kwihlabathi liphela, amandla amatsha akhelwe i-TOPCon ngaphandle kokubuyisela amandla amadala kwaye ngaphandle kokuwavala rhoqo.
Okulindelweyo kubonakale kulungile kwixesha elide enkosi kwiindleko eziphezulu ezisisigxina zemithombo yamandla eqhelekileyo. Ngelishwa, abezopolitiko baseYurophu babelungile kakhulu ekutshintsheni imithombo yamafutha e-fossil endala kunye nemitsha ngesaziso esifutshane, ngoko ke ukubandezeleka kweendleko zamandla ezinyukayo ngokukhawuleza kwawa. Ubhubhane kwakhona kubonakala ngathi woyisiwe kwaye umndilili waseYurophu unokuhamba ngaphandle kwemiqobo kwakhona. Ubuncinci ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, abantu abaninzi abasandul 'ukufuna ukutyalomali kwiinkqubo ze-photovoltaic ngoku banqabile. Inyaniso yokuba amazinga enzala kwimali-mboleko aqhubeleka nokunyuka ayenzi isigqibo sibe lula. Umphumo wazo zonke izinto ezidweliswe ukuwohloka kwemfuno ukwenzela ukuba imboni ye-photovoltaics ingakaveli kwi-slump yasehlobo naphakathi koSeptemba.
Umdla ophela ngokukhawuleza ekuveliseni umbane welanga ngokuqinisekileyo uthetha ukuba iincwadi zokuodola zabafakeli kunye nabacwangcisi beeprojekthi ziqhuba iimodyuli ezingenanto kwaye zi-odolwe kwangaphambili kunye neziguquli azikwazi ukuziswa ngexesha. Iimpahla ziya zisanda kubathengisi nakwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla zabenzi. Kukho ngoku kuthiwa i-40 GW ukuya kwi-100 GW yeemodyuli ezingathengiswa kwiivenkile zaseYurophu, ngokukodwa kwindawo yaseRotterdam. Ukumisela isixa esichanekileyo phantse akunakwenzeka. Nangona kunjalo, kwanele ukwazi ukuba sele kukho malunga nokunikezelwa kweemodyuli zonyaka eYurophu ukuqonda imilinganiselo kunye nobubanzi bomcimbi. Ukugcina ezi mpahla kubiza indawo eninzi kwaye ke imali; ilahleko iyanda imihla ngemihla, ngelixa amathuba okuthengisa ehla. Uxinzelelo luyanda de i-avalanche ekugqibeleni iqale ukutyibilika kwaye abokuqala baya kuqala ukunika iimodyuli zabo ngaphantsi kweendleko zokuthenga okanye zokuvelisa. Abakhuphisana nabo banyanzelwa ukuba balandele umkhondo kwaye i-spiral ezantsi imiselwe.
Ngoku umntu unokucinga ukuba ukuhla kwamaxabiso kuya kufuneka kunyuse imfuno. Kwiimeko ezininzi, inqanaba lexabiso langoku lezinto eziphathekayo alikafiki kubathengi bokugqibela okanye abatyali-mali. Kwabaninzi ababoneleli, uluhlu oludala, oluthengwe ngamaxabiso aphezulu, luselukhulu kakhulu. I-wave of devaluation nayo isaqala, yiyo loo nto ukuhla kwexabiso kuya kuba nzima kakhulu inyanga nenyanga. Abaninzi basenethemba lokubaleka ngeliso elimnyama. Kodwa umngcipheko wokubambelela kwimpahla endala uphezulu kakhulu. Abo banomdla photovoltaics kwakhona esweni amaxabiso ngokusondeleyo kakhulu kwaye uthelekise unikezelo. Ngokufanelekileyo, abathengi abaninzi bokugqibela ngoku balindele ukuba amaxabiso anikezelweyo ehle ngakumbi kwaye bayathandabuza ukubeka iodolo.
Ngoko yonke into ngoku ixhomekeke ekubeni uhambo lukusa phi. Amaxabiso kufuneka ehle kangakanani phambi kokuba imfuno inyuke kwakhona kwaye ibhalansi ifunyenwe?
Imigca yokuvelisa e-China sele ivaliwe, kwaye ukuya kwi-50 GW iya kwakhiwa kweli lizwe kulo nyaka - ngaphezu kwe-80 GW ukuya kwi-90 GW esele ifakwe kulo nyaka. Kodwa nokuba akukho nanye imodyuli entsha eza eYurophu ivela eTshayina, besiya kufuna iinyanga ezininzi de kucinywe ukusilela kwemodyuli. Iimodyuli ezigciniweyo nazo zininzi iimveliso ezineeseli ze-PERC, ezisebenza ngokuphantsi kunezo iimodyuli ezinobuchwephesha bamva nje. Ndiyathandabuza ukuba ezi zikulungele ukwandisa imfuno yasekhaya ngamandla. Ezi mveliso zinokuthi zisetyenziswe kwiimarike ngaphandle kweYurophu, apho abantu bavuyayo ngeemodyuli zelanga ezingabizi. Ngokombono wam, kuphela xa i-glut ekhoyo yeemodyuli ingancitshiswa iya kuba kwinqanaba lexabiso eliphilileyo liyakwazi ukusekwa kwimarike kwakhona. Ngelo xesha, nangona kunjalo, i-shakeout yemarike iya kubonakala kwaye abanye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike baya kuwa ngasendleleni.
Umthombo ovela pv imagazini
Ukuziphendulela: Ulwazi oluchazwe ngasentla lunikezelwa yimagazini ye-pv ngaphandle kwe-Chovm.com. I-Chovm.com ayenzi lumelo kunye neziqinisekiso malunga nomgangatho kunye nokuthembeka komthengisi kunye neemveliso.
