Ukuphela kokuBuyiselwa kwakhona: uHlaziyo loQoqosho olukhulu lwase-US

Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga enzala kuthatha irhafu kubathengi kunye namashishini, imarike yezindlu iye yacotha, ukusilela kwezorhwebo kwenzeka kwaye uluhlu lwempahla luhlala luphantsi; oku kukhokelele kuqoqosho lwase-US ukuba lwekhontrakthi kwikota yesibini ilandelelana, nto leyo ephelise ukuchacha kobhubhani we-COVID-19 (coronavirus).

Ukuqhuba iinkxalabo zokudodobala koqoqosho, i-GDP yokwenyani iye yahlengahlengiswa ukuze yehle ngesantya sonyaka se-0.9% kwikota yesibini yowama-2022.

Ngaphandle kokuhla, iKomiti yeSizwe yoPhando lwezoQoqosho lwe-Business Cycle Dating Committee ibonise ukuba uqoqosho alukabikho kwimeko yokudodobala kwezoqoqosho ekubeni imarike yabasebenzi iqhubekile yanda kwaye inkcitho yokusetyenziswa komntu iphezulu.

Ngelixa ezi zalathi zikhomba kwizinto ezilungileyo, uqoqosho lusaqhuba ukuba nemingeni emalunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, ukuncipha kovakalelo lwabathengi kunye nokuphazamiseka okuqhubeka okokoko kunikezelo lwezibonelelo, ukuqinisa uloyiko lokudodobala koqoqosho ukuya phambili.

Imarike yabasebenzi

• Iyonke imisebenzi engezofama inyuke nge-1.2 yezigidi kwikota yesibini ka-2022, ilandelwa ngomnye wemisebenzi engama-528,000 eyongezwe ngoJulayi 2022. Icandelo lezeMfundo nezeMpilo lelona candelo linegalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni, longeza imisebenzi eyi-122,000 ngoJulayi, lilandelwa licandelo lezoLonwabo kunye neloBundwendwe, elongeze imisebenzi engama-96,000 ngoJulayi.
• Njengoko iiofisi ziphinde zavulwa, isabelo sabasebenzi abakude siye saqhubeka sihla ukuya kwi-7.1% ngexesha le-Q2 2022, lehla ukusuka kwi-10.0% ngo-Matshi 2022. Nangona kunjalo, oku kuyahluka kakhulu ngokwecandelo kunye neemfuno zomsebenzi, kunye Icandelo loLwazi ukubamba esona sabelo sikhulu sabasebenzi abakude, kulandele Iinkonzo zobuNgcali, ezeNzululwazi nezobuGcisa.
• Izinga lentswela-ngqesho lifikelele kumanqanaba obhubhane we-3.5% ngoJulayi. Nangona izinga lentswela-ngqesho libuyile, izinga lokuthatha inxaxheba kwabasebenzi lisengaphantsi kwamanqanaba obhubhane.
• Kuyo yonke i-United States, i-avareji yemivuzo yeyure yonyuka ngexesha le-Q2 2022. Nangona kunjalo, umvuzo kwi icandelo loRhwebo lweWholesale yaliwe. Ngaphandle kokwenyuka kwamaxabiso okuthe gqolo, umndilili wokwenyani umvuzo weyure unyuke ngoJulayi ngelixa ungaphantsi kakhulu kwamanqanaba afunyenwe ngoJulayi ka-2021.

Inkcitho yabasebenzisi

• Iindleko ezipheleleyo zokusetyenziswa komntu (i-PCE) zikhule nge-5.5% ngexesha lekota yesibini ye-2022. Okwangoku, i-PCE yonyaka inyuke nge-8.4% ukususela ngoJuni 2022. Ukukhula kwenkcitho yabathengi kuye kwaqhutywa kakhulu ngokuchithwa kwezinto ezingenakulinganiswa, ngokukodwa ukuchitha i-petroli kunye nezinye iimpahla zamandla kunye neendleko zokusetyenziswa kwendlu (inkcitho yendlu).
• Ukuchitha kwimpahla ehlala ixesha elide kunyuke kancinane kuphela ngexesha le-Q2 2022, ukunyuka kwe-0.2%. Kwicandelo lempahla ehlala ixesha elide, inkcitho kwiimoto neenxalenye nefenitshala kunye nezixhobo zendlu ezomeleleyo inyuke nge-0.9% kunye ne-1.1% ngexesha le-Q2 2022, ngokulandelelanayo. Ngokuchasene noko, inkcitho kwizinto zokuzonwabisa kunye nezithuthi kunye nezinye iimpahla ezihlala ixesha elide zehle nge-0.5% kunye ne-2.0% ngexesha elifanayo, ngokulandelelanayo.
• Ukuchitha kwiimpahla ezinganyamezelekiyo nako kunyukile ngexesha le-Q2 2022, eqhutywa ikakhulu yinkcitho yepetroli kunye nezinye iimpahla zamandla ezinyusa i-5.3% ngexesha elinye. Ukongeza, inkcitho ekutyeni nakwiziselo ezithengelwe ukusetyenziswa ngaphandle kwendawo yonyuke nge-0.7% ngexesha le-Q2 ka-2022.
• Inkcitho kwiinkonzo inyuke nge-2.2% ngexesha le-Q2 2022. Ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa kweenkonzo zothutho (5.5%) kunye neenkonzo zokutya kunye neendawo zokuhlala (3.5%) ziqhube inkcitho kwiinkonzo ukunyuka ngexesha le-Q2.

I xabiso

• Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (ngaphandle kokutya namandla), umlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso okhethwayo weFederal Reserve, unyuke nge-1.3% ngekota yesibini ka-2022. Ngenxa yoko, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyaka nonyaka kumi kwi-4.8% kunyaka ophela ngoJuni ka-2022.
• Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, njengoko kulinganiswe ngeSalathiso seXabiso loMthengi (CPI) kwaye kubandakanywa ukutya kunye nezinto zamandla, kunyuke nge-8.5% kunyaka ophela ngoJulayi wama-2022. I-CPI idla ngokuba lelona nani lixhaphakileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso phakathi kwabathengi kuba ukutya namandla zizinto eziphambili zenkcitho kumakhaya.
• I-CPI yehle kancinane ngoJulayi 2022 xa kuthelekiswa noJuni, iqhutywa ikakhulu sisalathiso samandla esihla nge-4.6% ngoJulayi, okulandele ukonyuka kwe-7.5% ngoJuni. Ngaphezu koko, isalathisi sepetroli sehle nge-7.7% kwaye isalathisi segesi yendalo sehle nge-3.6% ngoJulayi 2022. Nangona kunjalo, isalathisi sombane sinyuke nge-1.6% ngoJulayi.
• Uhlaselo lwaseRussia lwase-Ukraine kunye nokuvalwa okunxulunyaniswa nobhubhane e-China kuye kwayenza mandundu ngakumbi imiba yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwi-Q2, ibeka uxinzelelo oluphezulu kumaxabiso ezinto zorhwebo kwaye ikwanegalelo ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso.
• Ukulwa nokunyuka kwembali yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, i-Federal Reserve inyuse izinga lenzala ngo-2022, kunye noMongameli u-Biden asayine uMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwe-Inflation ka-2022 emthethweni. Nangona kunjalo, i-Ofisi yeBhajethi yeCongressional ayilindelanga naluphi na utshintsho olubalulekileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yalo mthetho mtsha.

Iindlela zokuhlala

• Nangona ukukhula okuqinileyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022, ixabiso lokwakhiwa kwendawo yokuhlala lawa ngoJuni. Nangona isele ingaphezulu kwamanqanaba obhubhane, ulwakhiwo lwezindlu ezitsha luye lwacotha kakhulu ngokunjalo, kuqikelelwa ukuba amakhaya aqikelelwa kwi-1.7 miliyoni asakhiwa.
• Ngelixa ulwakhiwo lwendlu yosapho olunye luye lwawa rhoqo ngexesha le-Q2 2022, ulwakhiwo lweentsapho ezininzi lunyuke kancinci. Ngokubanzi, abakhi baye bakwazi ukusabela kwimfuno ebuthathaka njengoko inzala kunye nexabiso lemali-mboleko linyuka, linciphisa ukufikeleleka kwezindlu ezintsha. Ngeli xesha, iindleko eziphezulu zokurenta ziyaqhubeka ukuba lithuba lokuba abakhi baqeshe iiyunithi ze-multifamily.
• Njengoko amazinga emali-mboleko ebesoloko enyuka, izicelo ze-mortgage yase-US ziye zehla ngokomndilili ngo-2022, njengoko imfuno yemali mboleko yokuthenga amakhaya kunye nomsebenzi wokuxhasa imali wehlile. Nangona imilinganiselo yemali-mboleko yehle kancinci kwiveki ephela nge-12 ka-Agasti, 2022, izicelo zisanqabile, kunye nabathengi abaxhalabileyo malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye namakhaya agcina ixabiso eliqhubela phambili uloyiko lokudodobala koqoqosho.

Iindlela zokungahlali

• Ulwakhiwo lweendawo zokuhlala zehle nge-1.2% kwikota yesibini ka-2022, luqhutywa ngamandla, uhola wendlela kunye nezitalato kunye nolwakhiwo lwenkolo. Ukwakhiwa kokunikezelwa kwamanzi kuye kwaqhubeka kubonisa ukukhula olomeleleyo, okuqhutywa kukunyusa ukuveliswa kwemveliso kunye nemveliso.
• Iimali-mboleko zorhwebo kunye nezoshishino ziye zanda ngesantya esikhawulezayo ngexesha le-Q2 2022 xa kuthelekiswa ne-Q1, ebonisa ukunyuka kotyalo-mali kwiplanti kunye nezixhobo kunye nenkunzi yokusebenza.
• Ngokupasiswa koMthetho woTyalo-mali kwiziSeko ezinguNdoqo kunye neMisebenzi (IIJA), umsebenzi wokwakhiwa kweeprojekthi ezifana nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni, ukulungisa iibhulorho nokwandisa iziseko zokutshaja iimoto zombane kulindeleke ukuba womeleze. Ngaphaya koko, uMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo, owaphunyezwa ngo-Agasti wama-2022, ubandakanya iikhredithi ezahlukeneyo zerhafu kunye nenkxaso-mali yeeprojekthi zamandla kunye nemozulu, eziya kunceda ngakumbi umsebenzi wokwakha.

Iimarike zemali

• I-Federal Reserve iqhubekile nokuqiniswa kwayo kwemali ngokuphakamisa uluhlu olujoliswe kuyo kwireyithi yemali ye-federal kwi-1.5% ukuya kwi-1.75%. I-Federal Funds Effective Rate okwangoku ihleli kwi-1.68%. Ukongezelela, iKomiti ye-Federal Open Market Committee (i-FOMC) yaqala ukunciphisa kakhulu i-securities holders yayo ukususela ngoJuni 1, 2022. Ngokuthengisa ukugcinwa kokhuseleko, i-FOMC ijolise ekunciphiseni ukunikezelwa kwemali ngaphakathi kwezoqoqosho. Injongo yalo kukunyuka kwexabiso lentengo elibalekayo, eliqhutywa ngamaxabiso aphezulu okuthengisa kunye namaxabiso amandla, ngokunyusa ireyithi yemali ye-federal esebenzayo kunye nokuthengisa izibambiso. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okongeziweyo kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke de i-FOMC ikwazi ukubuyisela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-2.0%.
• Uloyiko lokudodobala koqoqosho lunzima kakhulu kwiingqondo zabatyali-zimali njengoko befuna ukothula ii-asethi ezinobungozi. Ukwesaba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhokelwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, okuye kwabangela ukuba i-Fed iqhubeke nokunyusa izinga lenzala kunye nokunciphisa ukukhula kwe-GDP yase-US. Indibano emfutshane yentengiso yenzeke ecaleni kokuthengiswa kweebhondi zikarhulumente wase-US, oko kwanyusa isivuno kwinowuthi ye-Treasury yeminyaka eli-10.
• Ukususela ngoJulayi 2022, i-S & P 500 yayiphantsi kwe-14.5%, i-NASDAQ iphantsi kwe-20.0% kunye ne-DIJA phantsi kwe-11.1% ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka. Abatyalo-mali baqhubeka begcina i-inflation kwi-inflation ukufikelela ukuba utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed luya kuba njani intlanganiso nganye. Ukungazinzi kwimarike kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke de kube umgaqo-mali we-Fed ubonisa iimpawu zokunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ukusasazwa kweereyithingi zomngcipheko

• Umngcipheko ngo-2020 wawugxininiswe kwindawo ephezulu yesikali ngenxa yokuqhambuka kobhubhani we-coronavirus.
  • I-3.0% yamashishini alinganiswe njengomngcipheko ophakathi okanye ophezulu.
• Umngcipheko ngo-2021 uthotyiwe njengoko izithintelo zilula kakhulu.
  • I-3.0% yamashishini alinganiswe njengomngcipheko ophakathi okanye omkhulu
• Imbonakalo yomngcipheko kulindeleke ukuba ibe mandundu ngenxa yokunyuka kwamandla emali, iinkxalabo zokuhla kwezoqoqosho kunye nemiba eqhubekayo yokubonelela.
  • I-2.0% yemizi-mveliso ibekwe njengomngcipheko ophakathi okanye omkhulu ngo-2022.
  • I-2.0% yemizi-mveliso ibekwe njengomngcipheko ophakathi okanye omkhulu ngo-2023.

Iimbalasane zecandelo

• Indawo yokuhlala kunye neeNkonzo zoKutya -Icandelo le-Accommodation kunye neCandelo leeNkonzo zoKutya liye lavela kwicandelo eliyingozi kakhulu kwi-2020 kunye ne-2021 ukuya kwelinye leyona mngcipheko omncinci kwi-2022, eqhutywa yi-rebound kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho kunye nokuhamba. Ngaphandle kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezinegalelo kwiindleko eziphezulu zokusebenza kwezi ndawo, izithintelo ezincitshisiweyo ezinxulumene nobhubhane kulindeleke ukuba zixhamle kumashishini afana nala. Indawo yokutyela yeChain, IiBhari kunye neeklabhu zasebusuku kwaye Indawo enye yokutyela enenkonzo epheleleyo.
• Ezothutho kunye noGcino - Ngokubuyela ngokukhawuleza ekuhambeni, icandelo lezoThutho kunye ne-Warehousing kulindeleke ukuba liphazamiseke ngokubonelela kunye nokungalingani kwemfuno, ukuqhuba iindleko zepetroli. Ngelixa abanye abaqhubi banokudlula ngotshintsho lwamaxabiso kwiimarike eziphambili, abanye banokucutha kwingeniso. Nangona kunjalo, eli candelo kulindeleke ukuba libe lelinye lawona mngcipheko umncinci ngo-2022, uqhutywa kukunyuka kwemfuno.
• ukwakhiwa - Njengoko ukunyuka kwenzala kuphakamisa iindleko zokuboleka kwiiprojekthi zokwakha, ukwakhiwa kulindeleke ukuba kube lelinye lawona macandelo anobungozi ngo-2022 kunye nexesha lokujonga. Nangona kunjalo, inkxaso-mali evela kuMthetho woTyalo-mali kwiZiseko zoPhuhliso kunye neMisebenzi (IIJA) kunye noMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba ixhase umsebenzi wolwakhiwo olungelulo olokuhlala kule minyaka izayo. Ngokukodwa, i Ulwakhiwo lwaManzi kunye noGutyulo loGutyulo; Ulwakhiwo lweNdlela kunye noHola weNdlela; yaye Ibhulorho kunye noLwakhiwo lweNdlela ePhakamileyo Amashishini kulindeleke ukuba axhamle kwinkxaso-mali eyongezelelweyo kunye neekhredithi zerhafu.
• Urhwebo lokuthengisa– Inkcitho yabathengi inyukile kwizinto ezinganyamezelekiyo, ngakumbi igesi kunye nokutya, okuqhutywa kukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko inkcitho kwizinto ezinjalo isanda, ishishini leZitishi zeGesi kwaye iZitishi zeGesi ezinoShishino lweeVenkile eziluncedo babonise ukukhula kwengeniso, ngakumbi njengoko abaqhubi begqithise ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubathengi. Ngokufanayo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya kunyuse ingeniso ye Iivenkile ezinkulu kunye neeVenkile zokutya.

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