IMbango ePhakamileyo, Amaxabiso oMbane woMoya oPhantsi Wonyusa amaxabiso eMarike yoMbane yaseYurophu

I-photovoltaic yelanga, i-solar thermoelectric kunye nemveliso yamandla omoya

Kwiveki ye-25 kaSeptemba, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kunyuswe kuzo zonke iimarike ezihlalutyiweyo xa kuthelekiswa neveki ephelileyo. Imarike yaseNtaliyane ibhalise ukwanda okukhulu kwi-38%. Kwezinye iimarike, ukwanda kwemveliso yamandla elanga kwakufana kakhulu, ukusuka kwi-15% eSpeyin ukuya kwi-18% eJamani. Ngapha koko, nangona imitha yelanga iyancipha njengoko kusondela ubusika, iPeninsula yase-Iberia ivelise i-163 GWh yamandla elanga ngoMvulo, nge-25 kaSeptemba, umthamo wemveliso yamandla elanga engazange ibonwe ukusukela nge-1 kaSeptemba.

Ngeveki ka-Oktobha 2, ngokutsho I-AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's uqikelelo lwemveliso yamandla elanga, imveliso yamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuba yehle kwiimarike ezihlalutyiweyo.

Ngoko imveliso yamandla omoya, kukho ukuhla kwemveliso ukusuka kwiveki ye-25 kaSeptemba kuzo zonke iimarike ezihlalutywe ngu I-AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Ukuwa okukhulu, i-55%, yabhaliswa kwimarike yaseFransi kwaye iyancipha incinci, i-2.4%, kwimarike yaseNtaliyane. Kwiimarike ezishiyekileyo, ukwehla kwemveliso yamandla omoya ukusuka kuma-44% eJamani ukuya kuma-49% ePortugal.

Kwiveki ye-2 ka-Okthobha, I-AleaSoft Energy ForecastingUqikelelo lwemveliso yamandla omoya lubonisa ukuba imveliso yamandla omoya iya kuqhubeka ukuwa eItali naseFransi, kodwa iya kwanda kwezinye iimarike ezihlalutyiweyo.

Imfuno yombane

Kwiveki ye-25 kaSeptemba, imfuno yombane kunyukile kwiimarike ezininzi zaseYurophu ezihlalutywayo xa kuthelekiswa neveki ephelileyo. Ukunyuka okukhulu, i-5.6%, yabonwa kwimarike yaseDatshi, ilandelwa yi-2.3% yokunyuka kwimarike yaseSpain. Ukunyuka okuncinci, i-0.5%, yabhaliswa kwi-Great Britain. Imfuno yombane yehle kwiimarike ezimbini kuphela ezicazululiweyo, nge-4.5% e-Italy kunye ne-3.4% eBelgium.

Ekuhambeni kwexesha, amaqondo obushushu aphakathi ukwanda kwiimarike ezininzi, ukusuka kwi-0.7 °C eNetherlands ukuya kwi-3.0 °C ePortugal. Nangona kunjalo, e-Itali naseJamani, amaqondo obushushu aphakathi ehle nge-1.8 °C kunye ne-0.1 °C, ngokulandelelanayo.

Ngeveki ka-Oktobha 2, ngokutsho I-AleaSoft Energy ForecastingUqikelelo lwemfuno yombane, imfuno yombane kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke ukwanda kwiimarike ezininzi zaseYurophu ezihlalutywayo, ngaphandle kweFransi, iJamani neItali.

Iimarike zombane zaseYurophu

Ngeveki ye-25 Septemba, amaxabiso phantse kuzo zonke iimarike zombane zaseYurophu zihlalutywe ngu I-AleaSoft Energy Forecasting inyukile xa ithelekiswa neveki ephelileyo. Ngelixa ngeveki ye-18 kaSeptemba, amaxabiso emihla ngemihla ahlala engaphantsi kwe-€ 100 / MWh, kwiintsuku ezininzi kwiveki ye-25 Septemba, amaxabiso emihla ngemihla agqithise le mali kunye ne-€ 120 / MWh kwezinye iimarike, okubangele i-avareji ephezulu yeveki kwiimarike ezininzi ezihlalutyiweyo, kwiimeko ezininzi ngaphezu kwe-€ 100 / MWh. Imeko eyahlukileyo yaba IPEX imakethi yaseItali, apho ixabiso lehle kancinci, nge-1.7%.

Kwelinye icala, ipesenti ephezulu ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, 46%, kwafikelelwa kwi Imarike yaseNord Pool kumazwe eNordic. Nangona amaxabiso emihla ngemihla ahlala ngaphantsi kwe-€ 10 / MWh, anyuka xa kuthelekiswa neveki edlulileyo, xa ixabiso elibi lemihla ngemihla libhalisiwe.

Kwiimarike ezishiyekileyo, amaxabiso anyuke phakathi kwe-11% kwi Imarike ye-MIBEL yasePortugal kunye ne Imarike ye-N2EX yaseUnited Kingdom kunye ne-35% kwi Imarike ye-EPEX SPOT eBelgium naseFransi.

Kwiveki yesine kaSeptemba, i-avareji yeveki yayingaphezulu kwe-€ 90 / MWh kwiimarike ezininzi zombane zaseYurophu ezihlalutyiweyo. Okungafaniyo kwakuyimarike yeNordic, apho ixabiso eliphantsi eliphantsi, i-3.82 / MWh, lafikelelwa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-avareji ephezulu yeveki, i-€ 116.21 / MWh, yafikelelwa kwimarike yase-Italy. Kwezinye iimarike ezihlalutyiweyo, amaxabiso avela kwi-€ 91.68 / MWh kwimarike yaseBrithani ukuya kwi-€ 113.67 / MWh kwimarike yesiPutukezi.

Kwiimarike zeNordic, amaxabiso abi ngeyure abhalisiwe ngoSeptemba 25, 26 kunye ne-30 kunye no-Oktobha 1. Kwimarike yaseBrithani, amaxabiso amabi abhaliswa ngoSeptemba 25 kunye ne-28. Ixabiso eliphantsi leyure kule marike, ‑ £ 19.78 / MWh, yafikelelwa ngoLwesine, Septemba 28, phakathi kwe-5: 00 kunye ne-6: 00. Eli lixabiso eliphantsi kakhulu kule marike ukususela ngoJulayi 16. Ukongezelela, amaxabiso amabi abhalisiwe kwiimarike zaseJamani, eBelgium, eFransi naseDatshi ngeCawa, ngo-Oktobha 1.

Nangona kunjalo, kwiveki yesine kaSeptemba, amaxabiso ngeyure ngaphezulu kwe-€ 200 / MWh afikeleleke kwiimarike ezininzi. NgoMvulo, ngoSeptemba 25, le mali yagqithiswa kwiiyure ezimbini kwiimarike zaseBelgium. Kwiimarike zaseJamani naseDatshi, ngaphezu kwe-25^th, Amaxabiso angaphezulu kwe-€ 200 / MWh abhaliswe ngoSeptemba 26, 27 kunye ne-28. Ixabiso eliphezulu, € 379.59 / MWh, libhaliswe ngoMvulo, Septemba 25, ukusuka kwi-19: 00 ukuya kwi-20: 00 eJamani naseNetherlands.

Ngeveki ye-25 kaSeptemba, ukunyuka kwexabiso legesi eliqhelekileyo, ukunyuka kweemfuno zombane kwiimarike ezininzi kunye nokwehla ngokubanzi kwimveliso yamandla omoya kwakhokelela kumaxabiso aphezulu kwiimarike zombane zaseYurophu.

I-AleaSoft Energy ForecastingUqikelelo lwamaxabiso lubonisa ukuba kwiveki yokuqala ka-Okthobha amaxabiso kwiimarike zombane ezininzi zaseYurophu ezihlalutyiweyo zinokuhla, ziphenjelelwa kukonyuka kwemveliso yamandla omoya kwezinye iimarike.

Brent, amafutha kunye CO₂

Ioli yeBrent ikamva leNyanga ePhambili kwi Imarike ye-ICE babhalisa ixabiso labo lokuhlalisa ubuncinci beveki, i-$ 93.29 / bbl, ngoMvulo, ngoSeptemba 25. Eli xabiso laliyi-1.2% ephantsi kunoMvulo wangaphambili, kodwa i-$ 0.02 / bbl ephezulu kunoLwesihlanu odlulileyo. Ukunyuka kwaqhubeka kwada kwafikelela kwixabiso eliphezulu lokuhlalisa iveki, i-$ 96.55 / bbl, ngoSeptemba 27. Eli xabiso laliyi-3.2% ephezulu kunoLwesithathu odlulileyo kwaye iphakamileyo ukususela ngoNovemba 7, 2022. Emva koko, amaxabiso ahla kancinci kodwa ahlala ngaphezu kwe-$ 95 / bbl. Ixabiso lokuhlalisa ngoLwesihlanu, ngoSeptemba 29, laliyi-$ 95.31 / bbl, i-2.2% ephezulu kunoLwesihlanu odlulileyo.

Kwiveki yesine kaSeptemba, ukucuthwa kwemveliso yi-Saudi Arabia kunye neRashiya, kunye nedatha ekunciphiseni kwee-stockpiles ezikrwada zase-US, zityhalele amaxabiso okuhlalisa i-Brent crude oil futures ephezulu ukuya kwi-96.55 yeedola / bbl ngoSeptemba 27. Nangona kunjalo, iinkxalabo malunga nokuziphendukela kwezoqoqosho kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni ixabiso elincinci kwiiseshoni zokugqibela zeveki. Idatha ekhutshwe ngoMgqibelo, i-30 Septemba, kwi-evolution yoqoqosho lwaseTshayina inokuxhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiintsuku zokuqala zika-Oktobha. Ukwenyuka kwemfuno enxulumene nokuhamba ngenqwelomoya ngenxa yokwanda kohambo ngexesha leeholide e-China kusenokuba nefuthe elinyukayo kumaxabiso.

Ngoko TTF igesi ikamva kwimakethi ye-ICE yeNyanga ePhambili, ngoMvulo, nge-25 kaSeptemba, bafikelele elona xabiso liphezulu lolungiso lweveki, lwe-44.44 €/MWh. Eli xabiso lalingama-29% ngaphezulu kunoMvulo odlulileyo kwaye liphezulu ukusuka ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli. Ngokwahlukileyo, ixabiso elincinci leveki lokuhlalisa ubuncinane, € 39.30 / MWh, libhaliswe ngoSeptemba 27. Nangona ukuhla, eli xabiso laliseyi-5.4% ephezulu kunoLwesithathu odlulileyo. Kwiiseshoni zokugqibela zeveki, amaxabiso anda kwakhona. Ngenxa yoko, ngoLwesihlanu, ngoSeptemba 29, ixabiso lokuhlalisa laliyi-€ 41.86 / MWh, i-5.2% ephezulu kunoLwesihlanu odlulileyo.

Ngeveki yesine kaSeptemba, ukulindela kweemfuno eziphezulu ngenxa yobusika obusondelayo kunye nokwehla kwemveliso yamandla avuselelekayo kubangele ixabiso eliphezulu kwiinyanga zakutshanje ngoMvulo. Nangona kunjalo, amanqanaba aphezulu e-European stocks kunye nethemba lobushushu obuphakathi kunye namanqanaba aphezulu okubonelela avumele amaxabiso aphantsi ukuba abhaliswe emva koko.

Ngoko CO₂ amalungelo okukhutshwa kwixesha elizayo kwi Imarike ye-EEX kwikhontrakthi yereferensi kaDisemba 2023, ixabiso leentlawulo eziphezulu zeveki, i-85.27 / t, yafikelelwa ngoMvulo, ngoSeptemba 25. Eli xabiso laliyi-5.5% ephezulu kunoMvulo odlulileyo. Nangona kunjalo, eli xabiso lalisele liphantsi kancinci kunexabiso langoLwesihlanu oludlulileyo, i-85.48 / t. Ukuhla kwexabiso kubhaliswe kwiiseshoni ezininzi zeveki yesine kaSeptemba. Ngenxa yoko, ixabiso lexabiso elincinci leveki, i-81.67 / t, libhaliswe ngoLwesihlanu, ngoSeptemba 29, kwaye laliyi-4.5% ngaphantsi koLwesihlanu odlulileyo.

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