Ukujongwa nzulu kwi-RCEP kunye neempembelelo zayo ezinokuthi zibekho

I-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) sisivumelwano sorhwebo lwasimahla phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu ali-15 kummandla we-Asia-Pacific. Lilonke, izizwe zibalelwa malunga ne-30% yabemi behlabathi (i-2.2 yeebhiliyoni zabantu), kwaye malunga ne-30% ye-GDP yehlabathi (i-26.2 yeetriliyoni zeedola), nto leyo eyenza i-RCEP ibe yeyona bloki yorhwebo inkulu kwimbali.

I-RCEP ayiphelelanga nje kwingingqi yobulungu bayo obuphambili, kodwa iziphumo zayo zivakala kwihlabathi liphela. Kweli nqaku, siza kujongisisa esi sivumelwano sibalulekileyo, sinika isishwankathelo sokuba sibandakanya ntoni kwaye zithini na iinjongo zaso.

Ukulandela oko, siza kujonga iziphumo ze-RCEP, kungekuphela nje kwingingqi ye-Asia-Pacific, kodwa nakwiYurophu. Uhlalutyo lwesi sivumelwano sorhwebo luya kunceda abathengisi abanqumla imida ukuba baqonde ukuba ngawaphi amathuba afanelekileyo azayo.

Isiqulatho
Amagqabantshintshi eNtsebenziswano yoQoqosho eBanzi yoMmandla (RCEP)
Ezona njongo ziphambili zeRCEP
Iimpembelelo zezopolitiko nezoqoqosho zeRCEP

Amagqabantshintshi eNtsebenziswano yoQoqosho eBanzi yoMmandla (RCEP)

IsiVumelwano se-RCEP sasayinwa ngokusesikweni nge-15 kaNovemba, ngo-2020, kwiNgqungquthela ye-ASEAN, eyayibanjwe phantse kwaye isingathwe yiVietnam. Iqale ukusebenza nge-1 kaJanuwari, ngo-2022.

Amaqela kwiSivumelwano seRCEP

I-RCEP yenziwe ngaba basayinileyo bali-15 balandelayo:

• Ostreliya
• Bruneyi
• Khambodiya
• iTshayina
• Indoneshiya
• Japhan
• iLaos
• Maleyishiya
• Myanmar
• Nyu Zilend
• Iiphilippines
• Singapho
• Vietnam
• emaznstie ekorea
• Thayilendi

IsiVumelwano sibandakanya amalungu akhoyo e-10-amalungu e-ASEAN yorhwebo kunye namanye amazwe amahlanu aseMpuma-Asia: i-China, iKorea, ne-Japan (ngamanye amaxesha ibizwa ngokuba yi-ASEAN +3), kunye ne-Australia kunye ne-New Zealand (ekwabizwa ngokuba yi-ASEAN +5).

I-RCEP inomxube wamazwe aphezulu, aphakathi, kunye nanengeniso ephantsi. Ezintlanu kwezona qoqosho zinkulu zintandathu kummandla we-Asia-Pacific ziyinxalenye yesi siVumelwano-iTshayina, iJapan, iOstreliya, iSouth Korea, kunye neIndonesia. Uqoqosho oluphakathi lubandakanya iMalaysia, iSingapore, iThailand, iNew Zealand, iVietnam, kunye nePhilippines. Uqoqosho oluncinci oluliqela lukwatyikitye, oko kukuthi, iKhambodiya, iBrunei, iLaos, neMyanmar.

Ixabiso eliqikelelweyo

Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngokukhula okuqhubekayo koqoqosho, ngakumbi malunga ne-China kunye ne-Indonesia, i-GDP iyonke yobulungu be-RCEP ingakhula ibe ngaphezu kwe-US $ 100 yetriliyoni ngo-2050. Oko kuya kuba phantse kabini ubukhulu beprojekthi ye-Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) uqoqosho.

A Uqikelelo luka-2020 sibonisa ukuba isiVumelwano sinokulwandisa uqoqosho lwehlabathi luphela ubuncinane nge-US$186 yeebhiliyoni. UPeter Petri kunye noMichael Plummer ukusuka kwiZiko leBrookings baqikelele ukuba i-RCEP inako ukongeza i-US$ 209 yebhiliyoni ngonyaka kwingeniso yehlabathi, kunye ne-US $ 500 yeebhiliyoni kurhwebo lwehlabathi ngo-2030.

The Iiprojekthi zeBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseAsia (ADB). ukuba i-China, iJapan, kunye noMzantsi Korea ziya kuxhamla kakhulu kwesi siVumelwano, ekunokwenzeka ukuba zifikelele kwi-US$85 yebhiliyoni, i-US$48 yebhiliyoni, kunye ne-23 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngokulandelelanayo. Uqikelelo lwe-ADB lukwabonisa ukuba iMalaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, kunye neVietnam zimi ukwenza iinzuzo ezibalulekileyo kwiRCEP.

Ezona njongo ziphambili zeRCEP

Ukuququzelela urhwebo notyalo-mali

Njengesivumelwano sokurhweba ngokukhululekileyo, enye yeenjongo eziphambili zeRCEP kukuseka intsebenziswano yezoqoqosho yala maxesha ukuze kuququzelelwe urhwebo notyalo-mali phakathi kwamaqela athatha inxaxheba. Kukho ugxininiso olukhethekileyo kurhwebo lwempahla kunye neenkonzo zokukhulula kwi-Asia yonke njengendlela yokuphuhlisa imeko yotyalo-mali enokhuphiswano.

Kwinqanaba elibonakalayo, isiVumelwano simisela ukucuthwa kwamaxabiso kunye nered tape ukuze kube lula ukufikelela kurhwebo norhwebo. Okubandakanyiweyo kwi-RCEP yimithetho emanyeneyo yemvelaphi yazo zonke iimpahla ezithengiswayo kwibloki.

Le migaqo yenzelwe ukuseka imigangatho efanayo echaza ukuba ukuba amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP aqhuba izinto okanye iimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe angamalungu, ezi zinto zithathwa njengezivela kwilizwe lokucubungula. Ekugqibeleni, oku kuya kunceda ukuseka iimarike ezivulekileyo nezinokhuphiswano.

Hlanganisa izivumelwano ezikhoyo ze-ASEAN +1 zibe sisivumelwano sorhwebo esinye

Umqhubi ophambili owabangela iingxoxo ze-RCEP kwi-2012 yayiyimfuneko yokuhlanganisa zonke izivumelwano zorhwebo ezikhoyo ze-ASEAN +1 zibe yimbumba. Yintoni eyayiyingxaki malunga nezivumelwano ze-ASEAN +1 zangaphambili kukuba babenamanqanaba ahlukeneyo amabhongo asekelwe kumaqabane, kwaye inani labo lalingenalo urhwebo olubalulekileyo kunye nezibophelelo ezinxulumene norhwebo, ezifana norhwebo lwedijithali okanye amalungelo epropathi yengqondo.

Ngokusebenzisa i-RCEP, amazwe ase-Asia-Pacific azimisele ukudibanisa uqoqosho lwawo kunye nokuseka imithetho yorhwebo ehambelanayo ngaphandle koxinzelelo lokufuna ukwenza izibophelelo ezithile kubadlali bangaphandle njenge-US. Oku kuyinyani ngokukodwa kwi-TPP, eyayilawulwa kakhulu yi-United States ngaphambi konyulo lukaDonald Trump.

Iimpembelelo zoqoqosho zeRCEP

Iimpembelelo kummandla we-Asia-Pacific

Ngokwembono yezoqoqosho, i-RCEP inokubonwa njengokuphumelela kumaziko athatha inxaxheba. Ngokusekwe kwisakhelo se-ASEAN samazwe amaninzi, ikwazile ukukhuthaza intsebenziswano yorhwebo phakathi koqoqosho oluphezulu lommandla. Ngapha koko, i-RCEP iphawula isivumelwano sokuqala sokurhweba simahla phakathi kweTshayina, iJapan kunye noMzantsi Korea.

Lilonke, kubonwa njengokuphumelela ummandla njengoko amazwe aseMpuma Asia ekwazi ukukhawulezisa ukuhlanganiswa koqoqosho lwawo. Ngokwemiqathango ethile, i-RCEP iya kuba noxanduva lokudibanisa ukuya kuma-30% abantu behlabathi kunye nemveliso, kwaye ivelise inzuzo yoqoqosho kuhlumo lwe-GDP kumalungu ukuya kwi-US $ 100 yetriliyoni edibeneyo ngo-2050.

Ngokuphathelele kumashishini amele ukuxhamla kwi-RCEP, ishishini leemoto limi njengenye yazo. Ukuthotywa kweerhafu ekuvunyelwene ngazo kwicandelo leemoto kuthetha ukuba iindidi ezininzi ze iimoto eziphakathi kancane kancane iza kuba nemirhumo yokungenisa elizweni ngaphandle epheliswe. Ezi ziindaba ezimnandi kubathengisi beemoto abawela imida phakathi kwengingqi.

Iimpembelelo kwiYurophu

Kukho ithuba lokumila kweendlela zorhwebo zehlabathi ezikhoyo kunye nemithetho ukuba iphakanyiswe yi-RCEP, kunye nokuhlengahlengiswa kwemithetho kunye nezicwangciso zenzeke ngaphaya kommandla we-Asia-Pacific.

I-EU inoqhagamshelo olukhoyo lwezorhwebo kunye nenani labatyikityi beRCEP, kunye nokungeniswa ngaphandle kunye nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweemveliso zoomatshini kunye neemveliso zemoto ziphakathi kweendidi zentengiso ezi-5 eziphezulu.

Njengoko i-RCEP ijonge ukuququzelela urhwebo kunye nokunciphisa iindleko zorhwebo phakathi kwamalungu e-RCEP, isiphumo kwamanye amashishini anokunciphisa ukukhuphisana kweemveliso zaseYurophu, kunye norhwebo lujikiselwe kwamanye amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP.

Nangona kunjalo, kwiskimu esikhulu sezinto, iYurophu nayo imele ukuzuza kwi-RCEP njengoko ukuncitshiswa kwezithintelo ezingahlawulisi ngendlela yokulungelelanisa iimfuno zolwazi kumashishini kuya kwenza ukuba imeko yorhwebo ezinzileyo kwiinkampani zaseYurophu. Kulo mzekelo, UPetri noPlummer baqikelele ukuba iYurophu inokufumana ukunyuka kwengeniso ngonyaka okuqikelelwa kwi-US$ 13 yebhiliyoni ngo-2030 kwi-RCEP.

Iinkampani zaseYurophu kunye namashishini asele emiselwe kakuhle kwi-intra-Asian supply chain azuza kakhulu, ngakumbi oomatshini bombane, icandelo leemoto, kunye nelaphu. Kukho ithemba ngaphakathi kushishino olulukiweyo, njengoko zichazwe nguMlawuli weEuropean Textile and Apparel Confederation, ukuba imakethi ehlangeneyo yaseAsia iya kubanakho ukonyusa imfuno yezinto zodidi oluphezulu kunye nobuchwepheshe obuphezulu obuvela kwi-EU.

Ekugqibeleni, eyona nto ithethwayo kukuba i-RCEP iphawula ukuqhawuka koqoqosho lwase-Asia eseMpuma ukusuka kumaqumrhu angaphezulu kommandla. Kodwa ngelixa kuya kubakho ukudityaniswa kwebloc entsha, efikelela kude ye-ASEAN +, i-win-win inzuzo inokufumaneka kunye namanye amaqela angaphandle kwalo mmandla kwinani lamashishini.

isiphelo

Ukuqaliswa kwe-RCEP kunokubaluleka okukhulu kwezoqoqosho nezopolitiko kungekuphela nje ummandla we-Asia-Pacific kodwa kwihlabathi liphela. Eli nqaku lizama ukunika umfanekiso opheleleyo wesakhiwo, ububanzi, kunye nefuthe le-RCEP njengendlela yabarhwebi abawela umda ukuze baqonde uphuhliso olulindelekileyo lwezoqoqosho kunye nendlela oluya kuchaphazela ngayo urhwebo phakathi kwemimandla eyahlukeneyo.

Njengoko utshintsho lwenyikima lwenzeka kwiipatheni kunye nemithetho yorhwebo lwehlabathi, kuyafuneka kumashishini amazwe ngamazwe ukuba aqonde iziphumo zophuhliso ezifana nokuncitshiswa kwemiqobo engahlawulisiyo kunye nokukhululwa korhwebo kwimpahla kunye neenkonzo kulo lonke elase-Asiya oluya kubangelwa yi-RCEP.