Amashishini oVeliso ngo-2030-Ngaphaya kwe-COVID-19

Vula iphephandaba leshishini okanye iphepha lewebhu olikhethileyo kwaye uya kufumana imiboniso eninzi malunga nokuba iya kujongeka njani into eqhelekileyo emva kwe-COVID-19. Kwaye kuyinyani ngokungenakuphikiswa: I-coronavirus yenoveli iya kuba neziphumo ezihlala zihleli kuluntu nakumashishini - ngokufana ne-9/11 isizisele amanqanaba amatsha kunye nokunyamezela kwesikhululo seenqwelomoya kunye nengxaki yezemali ka-2008 ikhokelele kulawulo olutsha noluqhubekayo lwezemali. Kodwa ukugxila ngokugqithiseleyo kwi-COVID-19 xa sicinga ngento enokuziswa likamva, ngokombono wethu, kukungaboni ngasonye. Enyanisweni, ezinye iintsingiselo zinokuba nempembelelo esisiseko. Ngexesha lephulo lethu elithi “Manufacturing Industries 2030” esaliqhubayo ngo-2020, siye sadlana udliwano-ndlebe namagosa alawulayo (ii-CEO) zeefemu eziphambili zemveliso. Egxininisa imfuno yokujonga ngokubanzi, omnye umphathiswa wathi: "I-COVID-19 ayilohlabathi - yilensi esijonga ngayo umhlaba ngoku." Kwaye omnye wayibeka ngolu hlobo: "I-COVID-19 ngokwayo ayilotshintsho, kodwa yintshatsheli yolunye utshintsho ebesele luqhubeka." 

Sukujonga emva ngomsindo

Le minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo ibonakale ilungile kushishino lwemveliso ngokukhula kwaminyaka le kwehlabathi okungaphezulu kweepesenti ezine, ibetha iGDP ngepesenti enye. (Bona uMboniso 1.) Kodwa akuzange kuqale ngolo hlobo ekuqaleni. Umothuko ovela kwintlekele yezemali ka-2008/2009 ikhokelele kwindlela elumkileyo kwishishini kwisiqingatha sokuqala seshumi leminyaka, kunye nokuqinisekisa ukomelela kunye nokubhetyebhetye kwakuphezulu engqondweni yeenkokeli zenkampani - amava kunye nengqondo ethe yanceda ishishini njengoko sasingena kwintlekele ye-COVID-19. "Idijithali" kunye "nokunyuka kwabadlali baseTshayina" yayiyeyona ndlela ibalaseleyo yokubaluleka kobuchule. Kungenjalo, iinkampani ezininzi zigxile ngakumbi ekuphuculeni nasekugqweseni kokusebenza kunye nokwandiswa kweepotfoliyo zazo. Ngelixa amanye amacandelo, afana nokwenziwa kweinjini yomoya okanye izixhobo zokuphatha izinto eziphathekayo, aye afumana ukudityaniswa koshishino, yayingeloxesha lokudityaniswa kweshishini kunye nokufunyanwa (M&A), nangona ukungabikho kweendibano ezininzi zemizi-mveliso ukuya ekupheleni kweshumi leminyaka kunokubonwa njengento engaqhelekanga okanye njengesiqalo somjikelo omtsha we-M&A hypothesis yethu (kwakhona8 bona).

Umboniso 1: Uhlumo lwangaphambili nolwexesha elizayo lwecandelo leemveliso zoshishino
Imveliso yeMpahla yoShishino lweHlabathi (Intengiso)¹ nge $US BN

Ubunjineli kunye neeMpahla zeMetal (NACE: 25, 27, 28): Iimveliso zentsimbi ezenziwe zenziwe, izixhobo zombane, oomatshini kunye ne-nec yezixhobo
Umthombo: Oxford Economics

Sazibuza, ingaba ishishini lokuvelisa liya kujongeka njani ngo-2030 - kungekhona nje ngokweengqikelelo zevolumu (njengoko kubonisiwe kuMboniso 1), kodwa ngokweendlela eziphambili zesakhiwo iifemu zokuvelisa kufuneka zijonge. Siqale iphulo elibizwa ngegama elifanayo apho siye saseka iingcamango ezili-12 malunga nophuhliso esicinga ukuba lunokuba nefuthe elibonakalayo kweli candelo kule minyaka ilishumi izayo. Ezi ngqikelelo ziye zavavanywa emva koko ngovavanyo olubanzi phakathi kwabaphathi kwaye kwaxoxwa nzulu kunye nee-CEO ezingaphezu kwama-20 kunye namanye amalungu ebhodi yolawulo yeenkampani zokuvelisa ngexesha lehlobo lika-2020. 

Uhlaza kushishino

Ukufezekisa ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuya kuba yimfuneko kodwa umahluko omncinci kubenzi beemveliso zemizi-mveliso - kodwa ukunceda abanye ukuba bangathathi hlangothi kunika ithuba letriliyoni yeedola.

Ihlabathi libukele

Uxinzelelo lwemidiya yoluntu kunye noluvo loluntu lubetha iifemu zoshishino. Inani elikhulayo lee-CEO liya kuzifumana igama kwaye lihlazekile ngenxa yokuziphatha kakubi kweshishini kunye nentlalo

Ingxaki yekhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi

Uluhlu oluhlala lukhula oluphikisanayo kunye neparameters ye-namic (efana nezithintelo zorhwebo, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko, izifo ezibulalayo, kunye neentlekele zendalo) ziya kunyanzela iinkampani ukuba zijikeleze isangqa, ukulawula ngokusebenzayo umngcipheko - kwaye uhlale uguquguqukaView all 12 hypotheses

Ngelixa indlela yethu yayikwindalo yehlabathi jikelele, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba iimpendulo zazityekele kakhulu ngakwiNtshona Yurophu. Iziphumo ezithathu ziyaphawuleka: Okokuqala, ngokomndilili, i-88 yepesenti yabaphenduli kuphando bavumile okanye ngokuyinxenye bavumelana neengqikelelo zethu. Ingqikelelo evunyiweyo exhokonxayo "Ukubaluleka koMveliso okuBulalayo" okunxulumene nokwahlulahlula okukhuphisanayo kunye nokusasazwa kwexesha elizayo kwenkcitho eyinkunzi kuye kwawa kancinane. Okwesibini, imixholo emininzi ephezulu “ngamanani aziwayo” kodwa athathe iimpawu ezintsha, nokuba kungenxa ye-COVID-19 okanye ngamava kule minyaka idlulileyo. Kwaye, okwesithathu, "Ukutyalwa koMveliso kwiShishini" "ngumntwana omtsha kwibhloko," enokubaluleka okuphezulu kwaye emele ithuba elikhulu kwicandelo.

Umboniso wesi-2: Iingcamango ze-2030 ngokuhambelana nemvume

Umthombo: uhlalutyo lukaOliver Wyman

Kwinqaku lokugqibela, njengenqaku lethu elahlukileyo (“Khwela kwiLiza eliLiza”) ubonisa ukuba, oku akuthethi ukwenza okulungileyo okanye ukuthobela. Ngokoqikelelo lwethu, lithuba leshishini leetriliyoni zeedola kubaboneleli bezixhobo zoshishino. Ngokuxhomekeke kwindlela umgaqo wexabiso lekhabhoni odlala ngayo unokuba yi-pool yexabiso elikhulu kubaxhasi bezixhobo abanokubonelela ngezixhobo okanye ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo zangoku, ezinciphisa i-carbon footprint yabaqhubi bezixhobo (umzekelo wokuvelisa amandla, intsimbi, i-samente, kunye neekhemikhali).

Ubuchwephesha obutsha bempumelelo (umzekelo malunga nezisombululo ze-hydrogen) kwaye kungoko iintlobo ezintsha zezixhobo zemizi-mveliso eziya kufuneka ziziswe kwisikali semizi-mveliso zinika ithuba lemizi-mveliso yokwenza izinto ezahlukeneyo kwaye ifumane isabelo sepayi. Inyani yokuba amazwe atyebileyo, ngakumbi aseYurophu, anokuthi aqhube i-ajenda yemozulu kwangethuba nangakumbi, inika abavelisi baseNtshona ithuba lokuba babe ngabahambisi bokuqala, bazibeke kwangethuba ukulungiselela ukukhutshwa kwehlabathi.

Iimbono ezivela phezulu

Le mixholo mithathu ilandelayo iphumile njengezihloko eziphambili kuluhlu lwethu "lwempembelelo ngokuchasene nesidingo sentshukumo". (Jonga uMboniso 2.) Sabelana ngezinye zeembono amaqabane ethu odliwano-ndlebe abelana nathi ngazo. 

Ukukhanya oku-1: Imfazwe yetalente

Lo mxholo uphume phezulu kwinqanaba. Kwakukho isivumelwano esibanzi phakathi kweenkokheli zenkampani ukuba ishishini lijongene notshintsho olukhulu kwipotifoliyo yezakhono kunye nokuphuculwa kwezakhono ngokubanzi ngaphambili. Uninzi lwezakhono zemveli ziya kuba yimfuneko, kodwa iinkokeli zenkampani zaziqinisekile ukuba utshintsho luya kwenzeka ngokuthe ngcembe kwaye lulawuleke ngokwasemzimbeni, ngaphandle kokuphinda kubhengezwe iinzame ezinkulu zokuhlengahlengisa. Umxholo oqhelekileyo ophakanyisiweyo wawungonelanga ukufikelela kwizakhono ezithile, ngakumbi kodwa kungekhona kuphela ezo zinxulumene nedijithali (umzekelo, izazinzulu zedatha, i-AI, okanye iingcali ze-cybersecurity). Iindawo zenkampani ezingathandekiyo kunye nomfanekiso "woqoqosho oludala" zicatshulwe njengezizathu. Olunye uqwalaselo olwathi kwabelwana ngalo ngokubanzi yayikukuthandabuza okuzayo kwetalente yolawulo lwabancinci ukuthatha izikhundla zokuphuma kumazwe angaphandle, njengoko kwakunjalo ngaphambili, okukhokelela ekunqongophaleni kwamava amazwe ngamazwe. Esi siganeko sasinxulunyaniswa nomxholo obanzi wokutshintsha izimo zengqondo malunga nomsebenzi ngokuchasene nobomi. Kwelinye icala, iinkokeli zenkampani zaziva zinezixhobo ezinamandla kwimfazwe yetalente, ezinjengokuqina kunye nokuqhelaniswa nexabiso (amanqaku avela ngokuphindaphindiweyo kudliwano-ndlebe neefemu eziphethwe ziintsapho), utyalo-mali ebantwini kunye nokuzimisela ukusebenzisa iimodeli ezintsha zomsebenzi, kunye nokuseka ivenkile kwiindawo ezihamba phambili ukulungiselela iimfuno zabasebenzi abatsha. Abanye bakubona njengethuba lokusebenzisa izimo-ngqondo eziphantsi zamashishini osapho ukutsala italente ekwinqanaba eliphezulu (njengobunzima obuchasene noshishino olukhulu kwiidolophu ezinkulu).

Umboniso wesi-3: I-hypotheses 2030 ibekwe ngokwempembelelo kunye nesidingo sokuthatha amanyathelo kushishino lwemveliso

Umthombo: uhlalutyo lukaOliver Wyman

Ukukhanya 2: Ingxaki yesixokelelwano sobonelelo kwihlabathi jikelele

I-COVID-19 yakutshanje enxulumene itsheyini yonikezo Ukuphazamiseka ngokuqinisekileyo kudlale indima ekuziseni esi sihloko ukuya kuthi ga ngoku kwinqanaba lethu. UVavanyo lwePulse lweQhinga leKlabhu yeZiveliso, umzekelo, lubonise ukuba ukuphazamiseka konikezelo lweefemu ezingaphezu kwama-50 epesenti yeefemu eziphendulayo kwaba ngumqhubi ophambili welahleko yengeniso, ngakumbi ekuqaleni kobunzima. Kwaye oku ngaphandle kwento yokuba amakhonkco obonelelo e-B2B yokwenziwa kwe-fir ms ngokwesiqhelo angaphantsi kwehlabathi kwaye anzima kakhulu kunee-OEMs zeemoto ze-e xample. Ngenxa yoko, zimbalwa iinkampani esenze udliwano-ndlebe nazo ziye zanekhefu elibi kakhulu kumxokelelwano wonikezelo ebenokumisa imveliso ngokupheleleyo. Omnye umalathisi womdlali ophambili koomatshini wadanduluka wathi: “Ukuthenga ngokufuthi ecaweni kuneengenelo zako. Ngelixa kungekho zinguqu eziphazamisayo kwizicwangciso zekhonkco lokubonelela bekulindelwe, kwacaca ukuba iinkampani ziya kukala ukhuseleko lonikezelo - kunye nokuguquguquka ngakumbi njengendlela yokufikelela kwesi siphelo - phezulu ukuya phambili (jonga inqaku lethu "Ukwenza amatyathanga obonelelo aVumeke ngakumbi”). Ngokuxhomekeke kwimodeli yeshishini, oko kunokuthetha nokuba ngaphezulu "kwendawo-kwendawo" (umzekelo kwimeko yabavelisi bamacandelo) okanye ngaphezulu "ukubekwa phakathi," kubandakanya kufutshane nokuthengiswa kwexabiso eliphantsi ukusuka e-Asia ukuya eMpuma Yurophu (kwimeko yomatshini onzima we-OEMs). Kwaye iya kukhokelela, apho kunokwenzeka ngokoqoqosho, ukusuka kwelinye ukuya kubuncinci beendlela ezimbini zokuhluza. Kodwa bekukho ukuvumelana okubanzi ukuba ugxininiso olutsha lokomelela akufuneki luze nangaliphi na ixabiso, njengoko "abathengi banokungakulungelanga ukuhlawula ngaphezulu."

Omnye umba othe weza ngokuvakalayo nangokucacileyo kwiingxoxo zethu yayingumba wokunyuka kwengxabano yezopolitiko kunye neengxabano zorhwebo, kunye neempembelelo zazo kungekuphela nje kumakhonkco okubonelela kodwa kwimodeli yoshishino lweefemu ezininzi zemveliso ezixhomekeke kakhulu ekuthumeleni kumazwe ngamazwe. Ngelixa ingeyiyo eyona ngqwalasela kulo mjikelo weengxoxo siceba ukwenza oku kube ngumxholo wengxoxo yeshishini elizayo.

Ukukhanya 3: Ixabiso lokwenyani ledijithali

Bekukho isivumelwano esibanzi malunga nokuqhubeka nokubakho okuphezulu “kwedijithali” kwiinkampani ezenza imveliso kwaye malunga nenyani yokuba liqhezu kuphela lalo mandla elithe lafunyanwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Izinto ezimbini ze-hypothesis yethu (ithuba elikhulu elingasetyenziswanga kwinzuzo esebenzayo yangaphakathi kunye nengeniso elinganiselweyo yengeniso yangaphandle) inokubonakaliswa kakuhle ngeengcaphuno ezimbini ezixhasayo. I-CEO yomboneleli okhokelayo weenkqubo ze-intralogistics okwangoku utyalo-mali kakhulu kwiinkqubo zokuphela-to-ekugqibeleni ezinikwe amandla edijithali uthe: "Sisabona iipesenti ezingama-20 ukuya kwi-30 yeepesenti yeenzuzo ezisebenzayo zangaphakathi ngedijithali. Kuthatha ixesha ukufika apho, kodwa ndiqinisekile ukuba nabani na ongatyali mali ngoku uza kube efile ngo-2030.” Kwiimodeli zoshishino lwedijithali, igosa eliyintloko lobuchwephesha (i-CTO) lomvelisi omkhulu wezinto zoomatshini uthe, “Asizi kwaye asizukwenza mali ininzi ngokuthengisa iimveliso zedijithali njengesoftware okanye ii-apps. Kodwa idijithali iya kusivumela ukuba senze imali ngeemveliso zethu zemveli ngendlela entsha. ” Nangona kunjalo, umzila wedijithali uphazamiseka ngokucacileyo ngu "Ukwanda kweMingcipheko ye-Cyber" (i-hypothesis 10) ekwaye yalinganiswa kakhulu, kwaye enye i-CEO yaphawula ukuba ukwamkelwa kwe-intanethi ye-intanethi ye-intanethi ye-intanethi ye-intanethi (IIoT) iyancipha ngenxa yokukhathazeka kwabathengi ekuhlaselweni kwenkqubo okanye ukubiwa kwedatha.

Ngaphandle kombono omnye wokuba idijithali iyaqhubeka isisihloko esiphezulu, i-hypothesis yethu yekhonkrithi yayiyenye yezona zinto zikhuphisana kakhulu. (Bona uMboniso 3.) Kodwa oko kusukuzana kusenokuba kwakuphenjelelwa kukuchaswa kwethu ngandlel’ ithile okukruqulayo “kweendlela zoshishino eziqhutywa yidatha.”

Phambili naPhezulu

I-COVID-19 yinyani, kwaye ukuchaneka koqoqosho kumanqanaba amiselweyo kuya kuthatha iminyaka embalwa, njengoko sibonile kukwehla koqoqosho kwangaphambili. Kodwa iingqikelelo zokukhula kwexesha elide zihlala zinjalo. Ishumi leminyaka liza kuzisa imiceli mngeni emidala kunye nemitsha yeefemu zemveliso - kunye namathuba amatsha, njengoko imixholo yethu eli-12 ibonisa. Njengamaxesha onke, ikamva liya kuba lelabo ababonayo, abaguquguqukayo, kunye nabalungisiweyo. Ngoku lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuba iinkokeli zenkampani zithathe isitokhwe, zisete umkhombandlela wobuchule, kwaye zilungiselele i-2020s. Ngelixa ikamva loshishino lisenokungaqinisekanga, kukho into enye eqinisekileyo: ayizukukruqula.

Amashishini oVeliso ngo-2030-Ngaphaya kwe-COVID-19 (Khuphela ingxelo epheleleyo apha)

Amashishini oVeliso ngo-2030-Ngaphaya kwe-COVID-19 (eTshayina) (Khuphela ingxelo epheleleyo apha)

Umthombo ovela Oliver Wyman

Ukuziphendulela: Ulwazi oluchazwe ngasentla lunikezelwa ngu-Oliver Wyman ngokuzimeleyo kwe-Chovm.com. I-Chovm.com ayenzi lumelo kunye neziqinisekiso malunga nomgangatho kunye nokuthembeka komthengisi kunye neemveliso.