Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi umndeni ojwayelekile wezingane ezine udinga cishe Imiqulu engama-28 yephepha lasendlini yangasese ngenyanga. Ngakho-ke, ngokwesibonelo, izinyanda eziyikhulu zephepha lasendlini yangasese elinama-roll angu-100 zingase zihlale umkhaya onjalo isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinyanga eziyi-32, noma cishe iminyaka eyishumi, ukuze ziqede lesi sitokwe esikhulu!
Ngaphambi kokuthi ubani azibuze, lesi sibalo sihambisana nesikhathi esibi sokuqoqwa kwephepha lasendlini yangasese okwenzeka emuva. ezungeze i-2020-isikhathi esikhulu kunazo zonke sokuthengiswa kwephepha lezindlu zangasese emlandweni wesintu kuze kube manje. Lesi sikhathi sigcizelelwa kakhulu ukuxhumana kwayo nemisebenzi ye-ecommerce, lapho abaningi bezama ukuthenga noma ukuthengisa lezi zinto eziqoqwe ku-inthanethi.
Impela, lesi sibalo esingajwayelekile sokusetshenziswa kwephepha langasese efanele ngqo lapha, kugqanyiswa Umphumela We-Bullwhip—isimo esivame ukubangela ukungahlinzeki kahle noma, njengoba kuboniswe kulesi sibonelo, ukugcwala ngokweqile kwamaleveli e-inventory. Qhubeka ufunde ukuze ubambe kahle I-Bullwhip Effect, izimbangela zayo eziyinhloko, namasu okunciphisa, ikakhulukazi ngokombono we-ecommerce.
Okuqukethwe
1. Uhlolojikelele Lwe-Bullwhip Effect
2. Izimbangela eziyinhloko eziholela ku-Bullwhip Effect
3. Amasu okunciphisa I-Bullwhip Effect
4. Ukunciphisa isiphithiphithi emaketangeni okuhlinzeka
Uhlolojikelele lwe-Bullwhip Effect
Ukuqonda Umphumela We-Bullwhip
Igama elithi Bullwhip Effect laliyi okokuqala ihlanganiswe abaphathi beProcter & Gamble's Amanabukeni ama-Pampers ngeminyaka yawo-1990s, kodwa umqondo wawo owumongo uye waqashelwa kusukela ngo-1961 ngezethulo zikaJay Forrester, uprofesa we-MIT ku-supply chain management dynamics.
I-Bullwhip Effect isebenza njengobufakazi bamandla okuziphatha kwabathengi kanye nokuba sengozini kwemboni ye-supply chain ekuziphatheni okunjalo, lapho izinguquko ezincane ezidingekayo kuleveli yokuthengisa zingabangela ukushintshashintsha okukhulu kakhulu kanye nomthelela wochungechunge kuwo wonke amaleveli abahlinzeki balo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, okuhlanganisa kumthengisi wezitolo, umkhiqizi, namazinga omhlinzeki.
Ibizwa ngokuthi “umphumela we-bullwhip” ngenxa yokuthi umphumela we-ripple ongabangelwa ushintsho oluncane ekuziphatheni kwabathengi kulo lonke uchungechunge lokunikezwa kwempahla kufana nokunyakaza kwe-bullwhip, lapho ukuqhwisha kwesandla okulinganiselwe kungabangela igagasi elikhulu ngakolunye uhlangothi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlatshelelwa kwesiswebhu ngokuvamile kukhulisa ukuqhela okuhambayo ukusuka emthonjeni wawo, kulokhu, ikhasimende, okukhiqiza amagagasi akhula njalo abangela ukunqwabelana kwempahla, izinkinga zokulawula ikhwalithi, nokunye ukungasebenzi kahle.
Njengoba yonke into idala umphumela we-snowball kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, umthelela walo mphumela ungaba ujulile futhi uhlale isikhathi eside. Lo mphumela ungakwazi ngisho nomthelela ezimpahleni zabathengi ngesidingo sokudayisa esizinzile. Ekugcineni, lapho umuntu eqhubeka ekhuphuka uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, ukubikezela kwesidingo okunemba kancane kuba njengoba okulindelekile kuvame ukuba kuvikelwe ngokweqile, futhi ngenxa yalokho kunwetshwe ngokungafanele kulo lonke umkhakha womhlinzeki ngokuhambisana “nokuphepha kokuqapha”.
Imithelela ekusebenzeni kwe-ecommerce
Umthelela we-Bullwhip Effect ngaphakathi kokusebenza kwezinkundla ze-ecommerce ungakhuliswa ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuhlangana kwezinto. Lezi zici zenza amabhizinisi e-ecommerce abe sengozini yokuguquguquka kwesidingo sabathengi, ikakhulukazi ezicini ezine zokusebenza kwe-ecommerce: ukuphathwa kwempahla, izidingo zenqubo yokugcwalisa, ukuthengiswa kwe-inthanethi, kanye nemvelo yochungechunge lokunikezela.
Okokuqala, ukuthembela kwe-ecommerce ekuphathweni okunembayo kwempahla kanye nezinqubo zokugcwalisa ngokushesha kubenza babe sengozini ikakhulukazi, njengoba noma yikuphi ukungaboni ngaso linye phakathi kwesidingo sangempela namazinga we-inventory kungakhuphukela ngokushesha kube ukuphazamiseka okukhulu. Amasistimu wokusungula afika ngesikhathi kanye nezithembiso zokulethwa okusheshayo i-ecommerce evame ukusebenza kukho, zenza lokhu kube kubi kakhulu njengoba lokhu kushiya isikhala esincane sephutha ekubikezeleni isidingo sabathengi.
Imvelo ye-ecommerce, ebonakala ngesivinini esisheshayo sokuthengiswa kwe-inthanethi kanye nokubonakala okusheshayo kwamazinga we-inventory kubathengi, ikhulisa nakakhulu umthelela wokuguquguquka kwesidingo. Uchungechunge olubanzi noluhlukahlukene lokuhlinzekwa kwezingxenyekazi ze-ecommerce zengeza kuphela ubunzima, okwengeza izendlalelo eziningi zobungozi emvelweni wazo osuvele uthambekele.
Ukuhleleka koku-oda ku-inthanethi nakho kungaholela ekushintsheni okusheshayo kwesidingo sabathengi, kubhebhethekise umthelela ekusebenzeni kwe-ecommerce. Isibonelo, ngezikhathi eziphakeme njengokuthengisa noma izehlakalo ezingalindelekile (isb., ukuthenga ukwethuka okubangelwa isimo esiphuthumayo), amabhizinisi e-ecommerce angase akuthole kuyinselele kakhulu ukuvumelanisa uhlu lwawo lwamagama namazinga esidingo ashintshashintshayo ngokushesha.
Sekukonke, nakuba umthelela we-Bullwhip Effect ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla ungajula, uholele kalula ekuchithweni kwempahla noma ekuphumeni kwesitoko kanye nezinye izinkinga eziphuma kokunye okuhlanganisa ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokulondoloza nokumoshakala kwezinsiza, umthelela wawo emabhizinisini e-ecommerce ungaba yingozi ikakhulukazi ngenxa yemvelo yokusebenza nedijithali ye-ecommerce.
Izimbangela eziyinhloko eziholela ku-Bullwhip Effect
Complex supply chain
Ubunkimbinkimbi bochungechunge lokunikezela kwandisa kakhulu ubungozi be-Bullwhip Effect, njengoba ikhulisa ukuguquguquka kwesidingo kulo lonke uchungechunge lokunikezela. Lapho i-supply chain iba inkimbinkimbi, ayanda amathuba okukhiqiza izibikezelo zesidingo ezingalungile kanye nokulungiswa okuyihaba ezingeni ngalinye le-supply chain. Lobu bunzima ngokuvamile busukela ekubandakanyekeni kwabalamuli abaningi kanye nokukhuphuka kwezindawo zokuthinta kusuka kumkhiqizi womthombo kuya kukhasimende lokugcina.
Ubunkimbinkimbi bungabuye buhlanganiswe ngokungeza iziteshi zokuthengisa, inani eliphezulu lama-SKU, kanye nokusebenza kuzo zonke izindawo zokugcina izimpahla. Ukuntuleka okunjalo kokubonakala kungaholela ekucabangeni mayelana nesidingo esibhebhethekisa nakakhulu i-Bullwhip Effect.
Funa amaphutha esibikezelo kanye nokuguquguquka kwesidingo sabathengi
Nakuba leli phuzu ekuqaleni lingase libonakale lingenangqondo, uma licashunwa njalo njengembangela eyinhloko yakho kokubili uhlu lwamagama olunqwabelene kanye nokushoda kwempahla, ubunkimbinkimbi bokuphathwa kwe-supply chain kuveza ubunkimbinkimbi obujulile. Kuhlanganisa ububanzi obugcwele bokuhlaziywa kokumaketha, ukuhlela ibhizinisi, kanye nokuthathwa kwezinqumo kwamasu, futhi kugqamisa ubuthakathaka kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngomsebenzi obaluleke kangaka nobalulekile. Amabhizinisi amancane, njengabathengisi be-ecommerce, abadalulwa ikakhulukazi odabeni olunjalo ngenxa yokulinganiselwa kwezinsiza.
Amaphutha ezibikezelweni zokufunwa angabuye avele kusukela ekushintsheni okungalindelekile kokuncanyelwayo kwabathengi okuholela ekuqageleni okungalungile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthembela ngokweqile kudatha yomlando kungase kuholele ekubikezelweni okunganembile kwamathrendi wesikhathi esizayo. Lawa maphutha angase futhi asuke ezinseleleni zangaphakathi kanye nengcindezi yokunikeza ububanzi bomkhiqizo obanzi, njengoba amabhizinisi elwela ukulinganisa ububanzi beminikelo nokujula kwemininingwane yesidingo sabathengi.
Ukuntuleka kokubonakala kwempahla nezinye izinkinga zokuxhumana
Ukuntuleka kokubonakala kwe-inventory kungase kubangelwa kokubili ukushiyeka kobuchwepheshe nezinselele zokuxhumana, kokubili okuqinisa i-Bullwhip Effect. Ngobuchwepheshe, ukungabi bikho kwezinto obala ekuphathweni kwempahla ngokuvamile kungenxa yokuntuleka kwezinhlelo ezithuthukisiwe zokuphatha uhlu namathuluzi okuhlaziya idatha.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, le nkinga ye-inventory iphinde ivele ekuxhumaneni okubi phakathi kwabahlanganyeli be-supply chain, okubangelwa ukwabelana okwanele kwedatha yokusungula enembile. Ngamanye amazwi, kuyinkinga yezokuxhumana, lapho ukuxhumana okungekuhle kuwo wonke uchungechunge lokunikezela ngempahla kuholela ekungaqondini nasekungaqondani kahle. Lesi simo asigcini nje ngokufaka inkimbinkimbi ukuphathwa kwe-inventory kodwa futhi sikhulisa i-Bullwhip Effect. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kungenxa yezikhala zobuchwepheshe noma izinkinga zokuxhumana, umphumela wokuncipha kokubonisa ngale kwe-inventory ukhulisa i-Bullwhip Effect, okwenza ukuvela kwawo kucace kakhudlwana futhi okubonakala kunzima ukukunqanda.
Izikhathi zokuhola ezinde nezinwetshiwe
Izikhathi zokuhola ezinde nezandisiwe, lapho umphakeli ethatha isikhathi eside ukuletha, kungaba inselele, njengoba abathengisi bangase bazithole bedinga ukugcina isitokwe esikhulu sokuphepha ukuvimbela ukuphela kwesitoko. Ngokufanayo, izimo ezihlanganisa ukubambezeleka noma izinguquko ezikhathini zokuhola umkhiqizo zingaba yinkinga ngokufanayo, njengoba abathengisi bangase bazizwe bephoqelekile ukuthi bagcine isitoko esikhulu sebhafa ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi bangakwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zamakhasimende.
Lezi zimo zenza kube nzima ukubikezela isidingo esinembile kanye nokuphathwa kwempahla. Izikhathi zokuhola ezandisiwe zethula ukungaqiniseki ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka, okwenza kube nzima kubathengisi nabakhiqizi ukuvumelanisa amazinga abo esitoko nesidingo sangempela sabathengi. Ngakho-ke, lokhu kuhluka kungakhulisa umphumela we-bullwhip, umhlanganyeli ngamunye ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka elungisa amaleveli wabo we-inventory ngokusekelwe kumasiginali esidingo ahlanekezelwe.
Ukushintshashintsha kwamanani
Izaphulelo, ukuthengisa, namaphromoshini yizici ezisheshayo ezidala ukuguquguquka kwentengo, okuphazamisa kakhulu amathrendi okufunwa kwamakhasimende kanye nezibikezelo zempahla enzima. Lokhu kuguquguquka akuthinti nje kuphela ukuziphatha kokuthenga ngokushesha kodwa futhi kubangela izinselele kubahlinzeki abazama ukuzivumelanisa nesimo sezwe esiguquguqukayo. Lokhu kuvame ukuholela kumthamo we-oda eliphezulu kuwo wonke amazinga okunikezwayo ahlukene ngenxa yokulindela kwesidingo esikhuphukayo.
Isimo singase sibe nzima nakakhulu lapho ukuthengisa noma ukukhushulwa kuphela, noma lapho amanani elungiswa ngokuvumelana nokwehla kwamandla emali, okuholela ekungqubuzaneni okuqondile phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa. Lezi zinguquko ezinkulu zentengo zifaka izinga lokungaqiniseki ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka, okwenza kube nzima kubahlinzeki ukubikezela ngokunembile amanani esikhathi esizayo kanye nesidingo sokulinganisa.
Wonke umjikelezo wokusabela ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo uyisibonelo se-Bullwhip Effect, njengoba isigaba ngasinye se-supply chain silungisa ukusebenza kwayo ngokusekelwe kumasiginali esidingo esisontekile, okuqhubekisela phambili ukuthunaza ukulingana kwe-supply chain.
Amasu okunciphisa I-Bullwhip Effect
Ukubikezela okuthuthukisiwe nokusebenzisana kwabahlinzeki
Ukubikezela okuthuthukisiwe nokusebenzisana eduze nabahlinzeki kunganciphisa kakhulu i-Bullwhip Effect, njengoba izimbangela ezinkulu zalo mphumela zigxile ekuxhumaneni, ukubonakala, nokuhlanganiswa kobuchwepheshe. Izindlela zamasu ezigxile ekusebenziseni okuthuthukile isofthiwe yokuhlela ye-supply chain namathuluzi okubikezela esebenzisa ukufunda komshini nokuhlaziya okuthuthukile kungathuthukisa ukunemba kokuqagela kwesidingo. Lobu buchwepheshe buyakwazi ukucubungula inani elikhulu ledatha nokufunda kumathrendi namaphethini ukwenza izibikezelo ezinembe kakhulu mayelana nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo.
Nakuba amathuluzi okubikezela okuthuthukile abalulekile, endabuko izindlela zokubikezela ihlala ibalulekile, ikakhulukazi ezimeni lapho idatha iyivelakancane noma izici ezingenakubalwa zibalulekile. Nakuba izixazululo eziningi zesofthiwe ethuthukisiwe zihlanganisa izindlela zobuningi ngokusebenzisa ama-algorithms okuhlaziya idatha yomlando nokubikezela izitayela zesikhathi esizayo, zingase futhi zifake izici zokuhlaziya ikhwalithi, njengokuhlaziywa kwemizwa okuvela kudatha yezokuxhumana. Izindlela zokubikezela ezisezingeni eliphakeme, njengocwaningo lwemakethe kanye nemininingwane yochwepheshe, zihambisana nalawa mathuluzi ngokunikeza ukwahlulela komuntu kanye nokuguquguquka lapho ama-algorithms angase angathwebuli isithombe esigcwele.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukugqugquzela isiko lokuxhumana ngokuvulelekile kanye nokwenza izinto obala nabahlinzeki-mpahla kuqinisekisa ukuthi zonke izinhlangothi ziyafinyelela olwazini lwakamuva. Ukwabelana ngolwazi nokuqondanisa okulindelekile kokufunwayo kungase kunciphise nakakhulu umthelela wokuguquguquka kwesidingo sabathengi.
I-inventory ethuthukisiwe nokubonakala kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka
Ukubhekana nokushoda kokubonakala kwempahla kanye nezinye izindaba zokuxhumana ezihlobene kubalulekile ekuthuthukiseni ukusabela kwe-supply chain. Ukuthunyelwa kobuchwepheshe obufana ne-Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) kanye ne-Inthanethi Yezinto (IoT) inganikeza idatha yempahla yesikhathi sangempela kuwo wonke amashaneli okuthengisa. Lobu buchwepheshe buphinde bunikeze umbono ophelele wamazinga we-inventory kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, ukunciphisa izinkinga zebhalansi yesitoko.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuqaliswa kwesoftware yokuphathwa kwempahla kungaletha imininingwane ebalulekile kumathrendi wokusungula, kwenze amabhizinisi akwazi ukuzivumelanisa ngokushesha nezinguquko zemakethe. Ngokusebenzisa lezi zixazululo, amabhizinisi angathuthukisa izinqubo zokuphathwa kwempahla, futhi asebenzise indlela yamasu enikela ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka oluqine futhi olusebenza kahle.
Ukuphathwa kwe-oda okushelelayo
Amasistimu okuphatha ama-oda e-agile angasiza izinkampani ukuthi ziphendule ngokuguquguqukayo ezinguqukweni zemakethe futhi zinciphise ngempumelelo umthelela wokubeka ama-oda amakhulu, angajwayelekile. Leli su libhekana ngqo nokuguquguquka kwentengo kanye namaphutha esimo sezulu esifunwayo ngokukhuthaza inqubo yoku-oda eguquguqukayo nesabelayo.
Ukwamukela le ndlela eguquguqukayo kuvumela amabhizinisi ukuthi agxile ekufakeni ama-oda amancane, avamile kunokuthembela kuma-oda amaningi noma amakhulu. Amabhizinisi angakwazi ukuzivumelanisa ngokushesha nezinguquko ezidingekayo futhi anciphise ubungozi bokungalingani kwempahla enkulu. Lokhu futhi kuvumela impendulo ezinzile ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo, ukuqinisekisa ukuthi amabhizinisi awenzi ngokweqile ngokusekelwe ezimeni zemakethe zesikhashana.
Ukwehliswa kwesikhathi sokuhola kanye nokuzinza kwentengo
Ukwenza lula ukusebenza kanye nokuthuthukisa ukuhlelwa kwempahla kuwukhiye wokunciphisa izikhathi zokuhola, njengoba lezi zinqubo zivumela ukuthi i-inventory kanye nokukhiqiza kuhambisane ngokunembe kakhudlwana nesidingo sangempela. Ngokunciphisa izikhathi zokuhola, izinkampani zingaqinisekisa ukuhamba kahle kwezimpahla nolwazi. Ukusebenzisana eduze nabahlinzeki ekulethweni okufika ngesikhathi nakho kudlala indima ebalulekile ekunciphiseni ukubambezeleka kokusebenza, ukunciphisa umphumela we-Bullwhip Effect ngokuvumelanisa imisebenzi ye-supply chain nezidingo zangempela zabathengi.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukusebenzisa izinqubomgomo zezintengo ezizinzile noma ukuzibandakanya ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi eside ukuze kuvikelwe izintengo ezizinzile noma izindleko kuso sonke isikhathi senkontileka kunganciphisa kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwentengo, ngaleyo ndlela kusimamise amaphethini esidingo futhi kuvimbele uku-oda okusebenzayo. Amasu anjalo avimbela izinguquko ezisheshayo ekuhleleni ukuziphatha, futhi anikele endaweni eqashelwa kakhudlwana, amelana ngokuqondile nokuntengantenga okwethulwa ukuguquguquka kwentengo.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokwenza ngcono inqubo
Eqinisweni, ukusetshenziswa kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwamathuluzi ezobuchwepheshe kuyisisekelo sazo zonke izixazululo ezihlongozwayo zokunciphisa Umphumela We-Bullwhip. Ukudidiyelwa kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokwenza kahle kwenqubo ye-supply chain kugcizelelwa lapha njengesisekelo, okugqamisa indima ebalulekile yobuchwepheshe ekuthuthukiseni ukusebenza kahle nokuqina kwe-supply chain. Izixazululo zesimanje ze-supply chain tech, njenge Izinhlelo ze-Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI)., ibhekane ngqo nezinkinga zokubonakala kohlu, izinkinga zokuxhumana ezihlobene, nezinye izinto eziyinkimbinkimbi echungechungeni lokuhlinzeka, okuhlanganisa izikhathi zokuhola ezinde nezandisiwe. Inika amandla ukuphathwa kwempahla okuzenzakalelayo, iqondanise eduze ukugcinwa kabusha komhlinzeki ngezilinganiso zangempela zokusetshenziswa ngabasebenzisi bokugcina.
Ukunyuka kwe-AI nokufunda komshini kuphinde kugqamise amandla amabhizinisi okuthuthukisa yonke inqubo yokuhlela, okubaluleke kakhulu ekuphathweni kwempahla ukuze kugqugquzelwe uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka olusabelayo noluqinile. Ukuzenzakalela kwezinqubo ze-supply chain kufanele ngakho kube okugxilwe kakhulu ekuhlanganisweni kwezobuchwepheshe, njengoba kunciphisa kakhulu amandla amaphutha omuntu futhi kuthuthukise ukusebenzisana phakathi kozakwethu be-supply chain. Ekugcineni, ukwamukela ubuchwepheshe akwenzi nje kuphela imisebenzi eyinkimbinkimbi ye-supply chain kodwa futhi kuqinisekisa indlela esebenzayo yokuhlela isidingo nokulawulwa kwempahla.
Ukunciphisa isiphithiphithi emaketangeni okuhlinzeka
Uhambo lokudambisa isiyaluyalu esibangelwa i-Bullwhip Effect kufanele luqale ngokungena ngokujulile emvelweni nemithelela yayo. Ukubonakaliswa komthelela ku-ecommerce, lapho isivinini soshintsho nokulindelwe ngabathengi kukhulisa imiphumela yako, kugqamisa isidingo esiphuthumayo samasu okuphatha asebenzayo. Umnyombo wenselele yizimbangela eziyinhloko ezifana namaketanga okunikezwayo ayinkimbinkimbi, izibikezelo zesidingo ezingalungile, ukubonakala kwempahla enganele, izikhathi zokuhola ezinwetshiwe, noshintsho lwamanani olungabikezeleki, ngakunye okunomthelela ekuntengantengeni nasekungasebenzi kahle kwemisebenzi ye-supply chain.
Ukubhekana nalezi zinkinga kudinga inhlanganisela yamasu yezixazululo, okuhlanganisa ukusebenzisana eduze nabahlinzeki, ukusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bokuthola izinto ezingcono kakhulu kanye nokubonakala kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, kanye nokwamukela amasu okuphatha ama-oda avumelana nezimo. Ukwehliswa kwesikhathi sokuhola kanye nokuzinzisa izintengo kuphinde kube neqhaza ekulungiseni izinselele zokusebenza. Ngokuhlanganiswa kobuchwepheshe kanye nokwenza ngcono inqubo, amabhizinisi anganciphisa kakhulu umthelela we-Bullwhip Effect, aqinisekise uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka oluzinzile futhi olusabelayo.
Thola ukuthi ungaqhubeka kanjani nokudambisa isiyaluyalu se-supply chain ngamasu aphambili nemininingwane. Vakashela I-Chovm.com Iyafunda ngokuvamile ngengcebo yemibono nezibuyekezo ezenzelwe indawo yebhizinisi eguquguqukayo yanamuhla.
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