- U-Wood Mackenzie kanye ne-SEIA bakholelwa ukuthi i-US iphume ku-Q1/2024 namandla amasha okukhiqiza angu-11 GW
- I-Utility-scale solar iholele izengezo ezintsha ze-PV nge-9.8 GW DC, kodwa ingxenye esabalalisiwe yelanga yehla.
- Unyaka ka-2023 ulethe ku-inthanethi ngaphezu kuka-40 GW womthamo omusha we-PV, futhi inani elifanayo lilindeleke ngo-2024 futhi.
- Umthelela wezintengo zeSigaba 301 kanye neSigaba 201 ubonakala ungabalulekile, kodwa amanani e-AD/CVD angase abe ukukhathazeka.
Imakethe ye-solar PV yase-US yayinerekhodi elingu-Q1/2024 njengoba ikhula ngamandla okukhiqiza kanye nokufakwa, ngokusho kukaWood Mackenzie kanye neSolar Energy Industries Association's (SEIA) I-US Solar Market Insight Q2 2024.
Phakathi nekota yokubika, ilethe ku-inthanethi i-11 GW yomthamo wokukhiqiza amamojula amasha, ku-26.6 GW ehlangene. Inyuke isuka ku-15.6 GW ekupheleni kwe-Q4/2023. Abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi ekukhuphukeni okuphelele, lo mthamo uzokwanela ukuhlinzeka cishe ngama-70% wesidingo sasekhaya. Kusukela ngoJuni 2023 kuya kuMashi 2024, i-US ingenise amamojula welanga angama-49 GW.
Manje, umbiko uthi amazinga e-inventory aphezulu futhi ukutholakala kwamamojula kuwukukhathazeka kwesibili uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izithiyo.
Ayikuboni ukunyuka ukusuka ku-25% kuya ku-50% ezindlekweni zeSigaba 301 kumaseli elanga elanga laseShayina namamojula kanye nokuqedwa kokukhululwa kumamojula welanga akabili ngaphansi kweSigaba 201 njengokunomthelela omkhulu embonini yelanga yase-US. Kukhona 'ukutholakala kwemojula enempilo' (bheka I-Bifacial Solar Panel Lase Section 201 Tariff Protection).
Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi bathi abakayifaki imithelela yentela engase ibe khona ye-AD/CVD ekuthengisweni kwaseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia kumbono wemakethe yase-US. Umthelela wabo usazobonakala uma sekucacile (bheka Umnyango Wezohwebo wase-US Usungula Uphenyo Lwe-AD/CVD).
Noma kunjalo, bakholelwa ukuthi kukhona amandla okukhiqiza anele ngaphandle kweNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuze asebenzele i-US njengoba u-Wood Mackenzie elandelela ngaphezu kuka-61 GW wamandla okukhiqiza amaseli okusebenza ngo-2024-ekupheleni e-India, Indonesia, Laos, Mexico, Singapore naseNingizimu Korea. Lokhu sekungaphezu kuka-3.5 GW okulindeleke ukuthi eze ku-inthanethi e-US.
UKUFAKA OKUSHA
Mayelana nokufakwa okusha, i-US ikhule ngo-11.8 GW DC ngesikhathi se-Q1/2024, irekhodi lekota yokuqala embonini kanye nekota yesibili enkulu yokufakwa emlandweni, ngemuva nje kwe-Q1/2.
Amandla elanga nawo abe nesibopho sama-75% awo wonke amandla amasha okukhiqiza ugesi angezwe kugridi yase-US kwikota yokubika. Ekupheleni kukaMashi 2024, umthamo we-solar PV ofakiwe wase-US ukhuphuke wafinyelela ku-200 GW. Lokhu kufaka ngaphezu kwama-GW angama-40 afakwe ngo-2023, inombolo abahlaziyi abayiphrojekthi nakulo nyaka.
I-spree yokufaka iqhutshwa ingxenye yesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa enikele ngo-9.8 GW DC, okwenza i-Q1/2024 yaba ikota yokuqala enkulu kunayo yonke eyake yaba khona kule ngxenye. IFlorida, iTexas, iCalifornia neNevada bekuyizimakethe ezihamba phambili.
I-solar esatshalalisiwe ayizange ihambe kahle kangako. Ingxenye yendawo yokuhlala yehle ngo-25% unyaka nonyaka (YoY) kanye no-18% ikota ngaphezulu kwekota (QoQ) ngo-1.3 GW DC, ngenxa yamazinga enzalo aphezulu kanye nokushintshela ekukhokheni ingqikithi e-California.
Ingxenye yezentengiselwano ye-solar ifake u-434 MW DC, omele ukwehla okulandelanayo ngo-38% njengoba abathuthukisi bebhekene 'nezinselele ezikhungathekisayo' ngezikhathi zokuxhumanisa, izindleko eziphezulu zentuthuko kanye nokukhula kokugcwala kwezimakethe.
I-solar yomphakathi ayizange ihambe kangcono njengoba yengeze u-279 MW DC ngokwehla okulandelanayo ngo-32%. Ababhali bemibiko bakholelwa ukuthi lesi sigaba sidinga inqubomgomo evumela ukuthi inwebeke ibe izimakethe zikahulumeni ezintsha.
ISIBIKEZELO
Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi imboni yelanga yase-US izofaka njalo cishe i-40 GW DC minyaka yonke eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo. Ngo-2024 nango-2025, abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi ukukhula kube okuyisicaba, okuqhutshwa ukwehla kokukhula kwesigaba sesikali sosizo.
Ezinye izithiyo imakethe ebhekene nazo zifaka ukuntuleka kwabasebenzi, izingqinamba zemishini kagesi ophakeme, kanye nokungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo yohwebo. Kuzoholela ekukhuleni okumaphakathi konyaka kwedijithi eyodwa kusukela ngo-2026-2029.
Umbiko ophelele ungathengwa kwaWood Mackenzie's iwebhusayithi ye $ 7,500.
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