Vula iphephandaba lebhizinisi noma ikhasi lewebhu ozikhethele lona futhi uzothola ukucabanga okuningi mayelana nokuthi isimo esisha esivamile ngemva kwe-COVID-19 sizobukeka kanjani. Futhi kuyiqiniso elingenakuphikwa: I-coronavirus yenoveli izoba nemiphumela ehlala njalo emiphakathini nasemabhizinisini - kufana nokuthi umhlaka-9/11 usilethele amazinga amasha futhi ahlala njalo okuphepha esikhumulweni sezindiza kanye nenkinga yezezimali yango-2008 yaholela ekulawuleni okusha nokuqhubekayo kwezezimali. Kepha ukugxila ngokweqile ku-COVID-19 lapho ucabanga ngalokho ikusasa elingakulethela, ngokombono wethu, kuwukucabanga okufushane. Eqinisweni, ezinye izitayela zingase zibe nomthelela obaluleke kakhulu. Ngesikhathi sohlelo lwethu “lwezimboni Zokukhiqiza 2030” esilwenzile phakathi no-2020, saxoxisana nezikhulu eziphezulu (ama-CEO) zamafemu akhiqizayo ahamba phambili. Egcizelela isidingo sombono obanzi, omunye oyi-CEO uthe: "I-COVID-19 akuwona umhlaba - yi-lens esibheka ngayo umhlaba njengamanje." Futhi omunye wakubeka ngale ndlela: "I-COVID-19 ngokwayo ayilona ushintsho, kodwa iyimbangela yezinye izinguquko ebezivele ziqhubeka."
Ungabheki emuva ngentukuthelo
Iminyaka eyishumi edlule ibe yinhle embonini yezokukhiqiza ngokukhula kwaminyaka yonke emhlabeni jikelele ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwamane, kweqa i-GDP ngephesenti elilodwa. (Bheka uMbukiso 1.) Kodwa akuzange kuqale kanjalo ekuqaleni. Ukushaqeka okuvela enkingeni yezimali ka-2008/2009 kuholele endleleni yokuqapha ebhizinisini engxenyeni yokuqala yeshumi leminyaka, nokuqinisekisa ukuqina nokuvumelana nezimo kwakusekhanda kubaholi bezinkampani - isipiliyoni nengqondo esizuzise imboni njengoba singena enkingeni ye-COVID-19. "Idijithali" kanye "nokukhuphuka kwabadlali baseShayina" bekuyimikhuba evelele yokuhambisana kwamasu. Kungenjalo, izinkampani eziningi zigxile kakhulu ekwandiseni nasekusebenzeni kahle kanye nokwandiswa kwamaphothifoliyo azo. Yize eminye imikhakha, efana nokukhiqiza i-turbine yomoya noma okokusebenza okuphathekayo, kube nokuqiniswa kwemboni, bekungesona isikhathi sokuhlangana nokutholwa kwemboni (M&A), nakuba ukuhlukaniswa kwamaqoqo ezimboni ezimbalwa ngasekupheleni kweshumi leminyaka kungabonakala njengokuhlukile noma njengokuqala komjikelezo omusha we-M&A hypothesis (futhi bheka8).
Umbukiso 1: Ukukhula kwesikhathi esidlule nesizayo komkhakha wezimpahla zezimboni
I-Global Industrial Goods Output (Ukuthengisa)1 nge-$US BN
Ubunjiniyela Nezimpahla Zensimbi (NACE: 25, 27, 28): Imikhiqizo yensimbi eyenziwe yakhiwe, okokusebenza kukagesi, imishini ne-nec yemishini
Umthombo: I-Oxford Economics
Sazibuza ukuthi, izobukeka kanjani imboni yokukhiqiza ngo-2030 - hhayi nje ngokwezibikezelo zevolumu (njengoba kukhonjisiwe ku-Exhibit 1), kodwa mayelana nezitayela ezibalulekile zesakhiwo amafemu akhiqizayo okudingeka abheke. Siqale umkhankaso oqanjwe igama elifanayo lapho sasungula khona imibono eyi-12 ngentuthuko esicabanga ukuthi ingaba nomthelela obonakalayo kulo mkhakha eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo. Le mibono yabe isivivinywa ngocwaningo olubanzi phakathi kwabaphathi futhi kwaxoxwa ngokujulile nama-CEO angaphezu kwama-20 namanye amalungu ebhodi labaphathi bezinkampani ezikhiqizayo ehlobo lika-2020.
Ukutshala kwezimboni
Ukuzuza ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuyodingeka kodwa kube nokwehlukanisa okuncane kubakhiqizi bemikhiqizo yezimboni - kodwa ukusiza abanye ukuba bangathathi hlangothi kunikeza ithuba lezigidigidi zamadola
Umhlaba ubhekile
Ingcindezi yenkundla yezokuxhumana kanye nemibono yomphakathi ihlasela amafemu ezimboni. Inani elikhulayo lama-CEO azozithola eseqanjwe futhi ehlazekile ngenxa yokuziphatha okubi kwebhizinisi kwezemvelo nenhlalo
Inkinga ye-global supply chain
Uhlu oluhlala lukhula lwemingcele ephikisanayo kanye ne-namic (njengemigoqo yezohwebo, ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki, izifo eziwumshayabhuqe, nezinhlekelele zemvelo) kuzophoqa izinkampani ukuthi zenze isikwele embuthanweni, ukuze zilawule ubungozi ngenkuthalo — futhi zihlale zivumelana nezimoBuka yonke imibono eyi-12
Nakuba indlela yethu yayiyimvelo yomhlaba wonke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi izimpendulo zazitshekele kakhulu ngaseNtshonalanga Yurophu. Imiphumela emithathu iyaphawuleka: Okokuqala, ngokwesilinganiso, amaphesenti angama-88 abaphendulile kuhlolo avumelana noma ngokwengxenye avumelana nemibono yethu. Inkolelo-mbono eyamukelwayo evusa inkanuko ethi “Ukubaluleka Okufiphalayo Kokukhiqiza” okuhlobene nokuhlukaniswa okuncintisanayo nokusatshalaliswa kwesikhathi esizayo kwezindleko ezinkulu zehle kancane. Okwesibili, izindikimba eziningi eziphezulu “zingamanani aziwayo” kodwa sezithathe izimfanelo ezintsha, ngenxa ye-COVID-19 noma ngenxa yokuhlangenwe nakho eminyakeni edlule. Futhi, okwesithathu, "I-Greening of Industry" "ingane entsha ebhulokhini," enokufaneleka okuphezulu futhi emele ithuba elikhulu lomkhakha.
Umbukiso 2: I-hypotheses 2030 ngemvume yesihlobo
Umthombo: Ukuhlaziywa kuka-Oliver Wyman
Ephuzwini lokugcina, njengendatshana yethu ehlukene (“Gibela i-Green Wave”) uyaphawula, lokhu akumayelana nokwenza kahle noma ukuthobelana. Ngokwezilinganiso zethu, yithuba lebhizinisi lezigidigidi zamadola kubahlinzeki bemishini yezimboni. Kuya ngokuthi umthetho wentengo yekhabhoni udlala kanjani kungaba yinani elikhulu labahlinzeki bemishini abangahlinzeka ngezinto zokusebenza noma ukuthuthukiswa kwezinto zokusebenza zamanje, okunciphisa i-carbon footprint yabaqhubi bemishini (isibonelo ukukhiqiza amandla, insimbi, usimende, namakhemikhali).
Ubuchwepheshe obusha bempumelelo (isibonelo mayelana nezixazululo ze-hydrogen) futhi yingakho izinhlobo ezintsha zemishini yezimboni ezizodinga ukulethwa esikalini sezimboni zinikeza ithuba lokuba amafemu akhiqizayo ahlukaniseke futhi athole isabelo sikaphayi. Iqiniso lokuthi amazwe acebile, ikakhulukazi e-Europe, cishe azoqhuba i-ajenda yesimo sezulu kusenesikhathi nakakhudlwana, linikeza abakhiqizi baseNtshonalanga ithuba lokuba ngabahambisi bokuqala, bazibeke kusenesikhathi ukuze bakhishwe emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukubuka okuvela phezulu
Amatimu amathathu alandelayo aphume njengezihloko ezihamba phambili kuzinga lethu "lomthelela ngokumelene nesidingo sesenzo". (Bheka uMbukiso 2.) Sabelana ngeminye yemibono ozakwethu bengxoxo ababelana ngayo nathi.
Spotlight 1: Impi yethalente
Le timu iphume phezulu kwezinga. Kube nesivumelwano esikhulu phakathi kwabaholi bezinkampani sokuthi imboni ibhekene noshintsho olukhulu kuphothifoliyo yamakhono kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamakhono okujwayelekile okuzayo. Amakhono amaningi endabuko azophelelwa amandla, kepha abaholi bezinkampani babeqiniseka ukuthi lolu shintsho luzokwenzeka kancane kancane futhi luphathwe ngendlela ephilayo, ngaphandle kokuthi kwenziwe imizamo emikhulu yokuhlela kabusha. Itimu evame ukuphakanyiswa bekungukufinyelela okwanele kumakhono athile, ikakhulukazi kodwa hhayi lawo ahlobene nedijithali kuphela (isibonelo, ososayensi bedatha, i-AI, noma ochwepheshe be-cybersecurity). Izindawo zezinkampani ezingakhangi kanye nesithombe "somnotho omdala" kucashunwe njengezizathu. Okunye okuphawuliwe okwabelwa kabanzi kwaba ukungabaza kwethalente labaphathi abancane abasazothatha izikhundla zokuthuthela kwelinye izwe, njengoba kwakuwumkhuba phambilini, okuholela ekuntulekeni kolwazi lwamazwe ngamazwe. Lesi simo ngokuvamile sasihlotshaniswa netimu ebanzi yokushintsha izimo zengqondo ngomsebenzi uma kuqhathaniswa nempilo. Ngasohlangothini oluhle, abaholi bezinkampani bazizwa benezikhali ezinamandla empini yethalente, njengokuqina nokuqondisa ukubaluleka (amaphuzu avele kaningi ezingxoxweni namafemu aphethwe yimindeni), ukutshala imali kubantu kanye nokuzimisela ukusebenzisa amamodeli amasha omsebenzi, kanye nokusungula izitolo ezindaweni ezihamba phambili ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zabasebenzi abasha. Abanye bakubona njengethuba lokusebenzisa izimo zengqondo eziphansi kakhulu zamabhizinisi omndeni ukuze bahehe ithalente eliphezulu (njengendlela ephikisana nezinkampani ezinkulu ezisezindaweni ezinkulu zasemadolobheni).
Umbukiso wesi-3: I-hypotheses 2030 ibalwa ngomthelela kanye nesidingo sokuthatha isinyathelo embonini yokukhiqiza
Umthombo: Ukuhlaziywa kuka-Oliver Wyman
I-Spotlight 2: Inkinga ye-global supply chain
Okuhlobene ne-COVID-19 kwakamuva ukuthengiswa kwezinto Ukuphazamiseka ngokuqinisekile kubambe iqhaza ekukhuphuleni lesi sihloko kuze kube manje ezingeni lethu. Ucwaningo lwethu lwe-Manufacturing Industry Strategy Club Pulse Survey, ngokwesibonelo, lubonise ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain ezinkampanini ezisabelayo ezingaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-50 kwaba nomthelela omkhulu ekulahlekeni kwemali engenayo, ikakhulukazi ekuqaleni kwale nkinga. Futhi lokhu naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi amaketanga okunikezwayo e-B2B yokukhiqiza ama-fir ms ngokuvamile awanawo umhlaba wonke futhi awanzima kakhulu kunalawo ama-OEM ezimoto ngokwesibonelo. Ngenxa yalokho, izinkampani ezimbalwa esazixoxisana nazo zibe nekhefu elinzima ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka obekungamisa ukukhiqiza ngokuphelele. “Ukuthenga okuvame ukugxekwa endaweni yesonto kunezinzuzo zako,” kusho omunye umqondisi ophethe womdlali wemishini ophambili wajabula. Yize bekungekho izinguquko eziphazamisayo kumasu okuthengwa kwempahla obekulindelekile, bekusobala ukuthi izinkampani zizokala ukuphepha kokuhlinzekwa - kanye nezimo eziguquguqukayo njengendlela yokwenza lokhu - ukuqhubekela phambili (bona isihloko sethu "Ukwenza Amaketanga Okunikezela Aqine Kakhudlwana”). Kuye ngemodeli yebhizinisi, lokho kungasho okungaphezulu kokuthi "indawo yendawo" (ngokwesibonelo esimweni sabakhiqizi bezingxenye) noma ngaphezulu "ukubekwa endaweni emaphakathi," okufaka phakathi ukukhishwa kwezindleko eziphansi kusuka e-Asia kuya eMpumalanga Yurophu (uma kwenzeka kuma-OEMs omshini oyinkimbinkimbi). Futhi kuzoholela, lapho kungenzeka khona ngokomnotho, ekusukeni kokukodwa kuye kwamasu okumuncu akabili. Kepha kube nokuvumelana okubanzi kokuthi ukugxila okusha ekuqiniseni amandla akumele kubize nganoma iyiphi indlela, njengoba "amakhasimende cishe ngeke azimisele ukukhokha ngaphezulu."
Esinye isici esavela ngokuzwakalayo nangokucacile ezingxoxweni zethu kwakuwudaba lokungezwani kwezombusazwe kanye nezingxabano zezohwebo, nemithelela yazo hhayi kuphela emaketangeni okuhlinzekwa kwempahla kodwa nakuyo kanye imodeli yebhizinisi yamafemu amaningi akhiqizayo athembele kakhulu ekuthengiseni amazwe angaphandle emhlabeni jikelele. Yize kungeyona into egxile kulo mzuliswano wezingxoxo sihlela ukwenza lokhu kube isihloko sezingxoxo zemboni ezizayo.
I-Spotlight 3: Inani langempela ledijithali
Kube nesivumelwano esibanzi mayelana namathuba aphezulu aqhubekayo “edijithali” ezinkampanini ezikhiqizayo kanye neqiniso lokuthi yingxenyana kuphela yaleli khono eseyenziwe kuze kube manje. Izici ezimbili ze-hypothesis yethu (amandla amakhulu angaxhashazwanga ezinzuzweni ezisebenza kahle zangaphakathi kanye nethuba elilinganiselwe lemali engenayo yangaphandle) zingaboniswa kangcono izingcaphuno ezimbili ezisekelayo. I-CEO yomhlinzeki oholayo wezinhlelo ze-intralogistics okwamanje otshala imali eningi ezinqubweni zokuphela-kuya ekupheleni ezinikwe amandla ngedijithali uthe: “Sisabona izinzuzo zangaphakathi ezingamaphesenti angama-20 kuye kwangama-30 ngedijithali. Kuthatha isikhathi ukufika lapho, kodwa nginesiqiniseko sokuthi ongafaki imali kulokhu uzoshona ngo-2030.” Kumamodeli amabhizinisi edijithali, isikhulu esiphezulu sezobuchwepheshe (i-CTO) somkhiqizi omkhulu wezingxenye zemishini sathi, “Asenzi futhi ngeke senze imali eningi ngokuthengisa imikhiqizo yedijithali njengesofthiwe noma izinhlelo zokusebenza. Kodwa idijithali izosivumela ukuthi senze imali ngemikhiqizo yethu yendabuko ngendlela entsha. " Kodwa-ke, ukuthambekela kwedijithali kuvinjelwa ngokucacile "Ukwanda Kwezingozi Ze-Cyber" (i-hypothesis 10) nayo eye yalinganiselwa phezulu kakhulu, futhi i-CEO eyodwa yaphawula ukuthi ukwamukelwa kwe-digital/Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) iminikelo yehlile ngenxa yokukhathazeka kwamakhasimende ngokuhlaselwa kwesistimu noma ukwebiwa kwedatha.
Naphezu kombono ongavumelananga wokuthi idijithali iyaqhubeka nokuba isihloko esiphezulu, i-hypothesis yethu ebambekayo bekungenye yezingxabano ezishubile. (Bheka uMbonisi 3.) Kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi lowo mdonsiswano wawubangelwa ukuphikisa kwethu ukugxeka kwethu okunonya “kwezinhlobo zamabhizinisi eziqhutshwa idatha.”
Phambili naphezulu
I-COVID-19 ingokoqobo, futhi ukubuyisela umnotho emazingeni abekiwe kuzothatha iminyaka embalwa, njengoba sibonile ekwehleni komnotho kwangaphambilini. Kodwa izilinganiso zokukhula zesikhathi eside zihlala zinjalo. Iminyaka eyishumi izoletha izinselelo ezindala nezintsha zamafemu akhiqizayo - namathuba amasha, njengoba izingqikithi zethu eziyi-12 zibonisa. Njengenjwayelo, ikusasa lizoba ngelababona imibono, abaguquguqukayo, kanye nelabalungisiwe. Manje yisikhathi esihle sokuthi abaholi bezinkampani bathathe isitokwe, babeke umkhombandlela wamasu, futhi balungiselele ama-2020s. Nakuba ikusasa lemboni lingase lingaqiniseki, kunento eyodwa eqinisekile: Ngeke ibe yisicefe.
I-Manufacturing Industries 2030 - Ngale kwe-COVID-19 (Landa umbiko ogcwele lapha)
Izimboni Zokukhiqiza 2030 - Ngale kwe-COVID-19 (isiShayina) (Landa umbiko ogcwele lapha)
Umthombo ovela Oliver Wyman
Ukuzihlangula: Ulwazi olubekwe ngenhla lunikezwe ngu-Oliver Wyman ngaphandle kwe-Chovm.com. I-Chovm.com ayenzi izethulo namawaranti mayelana nekhwalithi nokuthembeka komdayisi nemikhiqizo.
