Isikhathi se-terawatt sesifikile, futhi umhlaba awukalungeli. Njengoba imboni iqhuma ngevolumu, ochwepheshe belanga nabahlobene kufanele balungiselele, bazivumelanise - futhi basebenzise.
Embikweni wayo wakamuva we-Q2 PV Supplier Market Intelligence, i-Clean Energy Associates (CEA) igqamise ukukhula okubalulekile ekukhiqizweni kwamamojula elanga ngabakhiqizi bamamojula elanga aseChina. Kusukela emandleni okukhiqiza angama-405 GW ngo-2022, kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-114%, okuzofika ku-866 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023. Ngemva kwalokho, ukuhlinzwa okuzolandela okungu-21% ngo-2024 kuzoletha inani elimangalisayo ku-1.043 TW emhlabeni jikelele.
Lokhu kukhula okusheshayo kwedlula izibikezelo eziningi zezimboni. Noma kunjalo, abangaphakathi kuhulumeni waseShayina, ababambe iqhaza elibalulekile kulokhu kukhula, kungenzeka bakubone kusengaphambili lokho kukhuphuka.
Ukubhekisisa izinombolo kuveza ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2024, umthamo wasekhaya waseShayina ungaba nesibopho sama-terawatts acishe abe ngu-0.93 wengqikithi yawo yomhlaba wonke. I-Southeast Asia kulindeleke ukuthi ibale ngaphansi kuka-7% (0.068 TW), amazwe aseMelika angaphezulu nje kuka-2% (0.023 TW), futhi izimakethe ezingezona ezase-China zase-Asia zinganikela cishe ngo-1% (0.011 TW).
Iningi lala mandla libekelwe amaseli elanga ohlobo lwe-n. Kodwa-ke, kubonakala sengathi ukungasebenzi kahle emsebenzini wokukhiqiza. Idatha ye-CEA iphakamisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamaseli kusasele ngemuva kokukhiqizwa kwamamojula, amandla e-wafer kanye ne-polysilicon ingot elandelwa ngamakhulu ambalwa amagigawathi.
Imakethe yaseShayina egxile kakhulu emandla elanga, esekelwa ukwengamela okubanzi kukahulumeni, ingabona ukushintsha kwalezi zibikezelo. Ukuthi amandla okukhiqiza amamojula elanga azocushwa kahle yini akuqinisekwanga.
Iqondana - futhi iyadlula - lezi zibikezelo, iBernreuter Research iphakamisa ukuthi izinhlelo zesikhathi eside zaseShayina zihlanganisa kufika ku-3.5 TW womthamo wokukhiqiza ngo-2027. Okutholwe yi-PVEL kubonisa ukuthi amathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.5 zamamethrikhi angase asebenze ekupheleni konyaka ozayo. Uma kucatshangelwa amagremu angu-2.2 e-polysilicon adingekayo ku-watt yamaphaneli elanga, i-PVEL ilinganisela ukuthi izimpahla ze-polysilicon zingakhiqiza u-1.6 TW wamamojula elanga.
Uma sisakha bazofika yini?
Umbuzo usamile: uma lo mthamo wokukhiqiza utholakala, ingabe kuzoba nezifaki ezanele, umthamo wegridi, namabhethri ukuze amunce insalela yokukhiqiza emini?
Umhlaziyi uJenny Chase we-BNEF ufafaze amanzi abandayo kancane ngentshiseko yethu, eveza iqiniso lokuthi ezikhathini eziningi, umthamo wefekthri yemojula yelanga mkhulu ngokuphindwe ka-1.5 kuya kwezingu-3 kunomthamo wangempela ofakiwe. Ukusetshenziswa kancane kwamandla okukhiqiza kuyinto evamile.
Mhlawumbe i-1TW izofakwa ngo-2025, kodwa hhayi ngoba amafekthri amamojula akhona.
Jenny Chase
Izilinganiso zakamuva ze-BloombergNEF zilinganisela u-392 GW ozofakwa ngo-2023 futhi cishe u-500 GW ngo-2025. Lezi zibalo zisekelwe ekuqageleni kwevolumu ephakathi, nakuba futhi zinikeza kokubili ukuqagela kwebanga eliphansi neliphezulu.
Ukuhlanganisa umthamo omkhulu kangaka ngokuphephile kugridi yamandla kubangela izinselele ezinzima zobuchwepheshe. I-US, imakethe yelanga yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, ibe nokubambezeleka ekuxhumekeni, okunciphise ukukhuphuka ngokushesha kwelanga. Ngokukhethekile, indawo ye-PJM, endaweni ebanzi ye-United States' Eastern Interconnection, imise wonke amaphrojekthi kagesi avuselelekayo iminyaka emibili ngenkathi ibhekene namakhulu ama-gigawatts amaphrojekthi abelwela ukufinyelela kugridi. Njengoba ulayini wokuxhumana wase-US usondela ku-2 TW womthamo, kokubili isikhathi nezindleko zokuxhuma kukhuphukile.
Izimakethe zombuso nazo zibeke amabhuleki ezimakethe zazo zasendaweni zokusabalalisa. Ngenkathi kwethulwa uhlelo lwe-SMART lwe-Massachusetts, indawo yeGridi Kazwelonke yagcwala kakhulu izicelo, okubangele ukuma okungalindelekile ekuthuthukisweni. Isebenzisa idatha yomphakathi, umagazini we-pv i-USA wabikezela ukuthi indawo yeGridi Kazwelonke izogcwalisa ngokushesha ingxenye yayo yonke yephrojekthi engu-800 MW. Isibikezelo sethu sasikhona. Nokho, insiza yazwakalisa ukumangala, ithi, “sonke siyamangala indlela esifike ngokushesha ngayo kulesi simiso sezinto.” Ngenxa yalokho, bashaya phansi ngonyawo ekuthuthukisweni, babeka amaphrojekthi ezigidigidi zamadola.
Lokhu kuphenduka okungalindelekile kubangele uphenyo lombuso. Naphezu kwalokhu, ukuxhunywa kwamagridi kuhlale kuvilapha, futhi okwamanje, iziteshi ezincane eziningi esifundazweni azikwazi ukwamukela amaphrojekthi engeziwe elanga.
I-China, imakethe enkulu kunazo zonke evuselelekayo emhlabeni, ekuqaleni ibiphethe ukukhuphuka komoya kanye nelanga ngokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngokweqile. Kamuva bathuthukisa inethiwekhi kazwelonke yamandla kagesi aphezulu (i-HVDC) ukuze badlulise amandla asuka ezindaweni ezingaphakathi aye ogwini olunabantu abaningi.
Izinga lokukhula kwamandla elanga liyakhula ngokungangabazeki. Ngemva kokuthola i-terawatt yethu yokuqala yokufakwa kwe-solar ekuqaleni kuka-2022, izingxoxo zashintsha ngokushesha zafinyelela ku-1 TW womthamo minyaka yonke ngaphambi kokuphela kweshumi leminyaka. Sabe sesicabanga ukuthi i-terawatt yesibili ingase itholakale eminyakeni emithathu nje kuphela.
Kunethemba elikhulayo lokuthi singase sibone ingqopha-mlando eyingqayizivele: i-terawatt efakwe phakathi nonyaka owodwa esikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Ngempela, lokho kungaba inguquko esheshayo.
Umthombo ovela pv umagazini
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