Izikhuthazi zokukhiqiza kuMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Emali wase-US (IRA) ziqhubezele ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu e-United States, empumelelweni kubatshalizimali abaningi; abathuthukisi; ubunjiniyela, ukuthenga, kanye nabahlinzeki bensizakalo yokwakha (EPCs); nabafaki. Abakhiqizi bamamojula yibo abashesha kakhulu ukusabela ephaketheni lenqubomgomo yezenzo zesimo sezulu, bakhulisa umthamo wokukhiqiza wesigaba sokugcina sokuhlanganisa amamojula, njengoba lesi kuyisigaba esilula ukunwetshwa. Abakhiqizi bamamojula abangaphezu kweshumi nambili bamemezele izinhlelo zokusungula noma zokwandisa izimboni e-United States, ikakhulukazi okuhloswe ngazo umthamo wokukhiqiza wonyaka we-gigawatt, kusukela kumenyezelwe i-IRA.
Ngokuphawulekayo, i-First Solar ibe yimbangela enkulu yalokhu kunyakaza e-US Eqinisweni, inkampani isanda kumemezela indawo yesikhungo sayo sokukhiqiza sesihlanu, esise-Louisiana futhi izoletha umthamo wayo ophelele e-United States ku-15 GW ngo-2027, ibalwa ingxenye yesine yomthamo wemojula ephelele ezweni. Umthamo wemojula yefilimu encane ye-Solar yokuqala ubalulekile ekufezekisweni kwesidingo sesikhathi eside e-US ngoba awuthinteki esimweni somnotho nezepolitiki esiyingozi samaketanga endabuko, e-crystalline-silicon. Ayikho enye inkampani esakwazi ukunqoba izinselele zobuchwepheshe ezikhona kanye nezindleko eziphakeme zefilimu encane uma kuqhathaniswa namamojula e-crystalline, okusho ukuthi ukushintsha kobuchwepheshe ngeke kube yindlela eya phambili yokuthi i-US ihlangabezane nemigomo yayo yokuzimela kwamandla.
Okuqukethwe kwasekhaya
NgoMeyi kulo nyaka, uMnyango Wezezimali ukhiphe izincazelo mayelana nekhredithi yentela yebhonasi engu-10% etholakala ngaphezu kwekhredithi yentela yokutshala izimali ngokusebenzisa izingxenye ezikhiqizwe endaweni kumaphrojekthi. Ngokuphawulekayo, isinqumo sokufaka kuhlu lwamaseli e-PV njengengxenye ekhuphukayo esesivele siqalile ukushayela igagasi lesibili lezimemezelo zamandla okukhiqiza ezingeni lamaseli. Njengoba u-18 GW womthamo weseli usuvele uhleliwe, kulindeleke izimemezelo ezengeziwe, ikakhulukazi njengoba abathuthukisi bephrojekthi bazodinga amaseli enziwe e-US ukuze ahlangabezane nomkhawulo ophezulu wokuqukethwe wasekhaya ngo-2026 no-2027.
Naphezu kwama-GW angama-22 womthamo omusha wokukhiqiza wama-wafer, ngo-2027, ukucaciswa kwebhonasi yokuqukethwe kwasekhaya sekuyekise ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe kokukhiqizwa kwe-ingot ne-wafer. Ifomula enquma ukuthi yini okufanelekela “njengeyasekhaya” ivumela abakhiqizi beselula ukuthi bafake izindleko eziqondile zezingxenye ezincane njengokuthi “zasekhaya,” okuhlanganisa i-polysilicon, ingot, nezindleko zokukhiqiza eziyisicwecwana.
Lokhu kusebenza ngisho noma, ngokwesibonelo, i-wafer isuka kwelinye izwe. Ekugcineni, abathuthukisi bazokwazi ukufaneleka ukuthola ibhonasi yokuqukethwe kwasekhaya ngaphandle kwalezo zingxenye zasendaweni, okulimaza ibhizinisi lokusungula izindawo ezinjalo zokukhiqiza ezibucayi e-United States.
Izinkinga ze-geopolitical
I-US izokwakha isisekelo esikhulu samaseli endawo kanye nomthamo wemojula kodwa abakhiqizi abaningi basazothembela kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwe-polysilicon kanye ne-wafer evela e-China naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwemojula yekristalu, umthamo weseli uzoba ibhodlela lokukhiqiza ukuzimela, ngokusekelwe kumthamo omenyezelwe njengamanje.
I-United States izofinyelela ukuzimela okungama-68% esimweni samanje futhi isiqondiso sebhonasi yokuqukethwe kwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi iqhube amandla okukhiqiza amaseli. Ama-wafers azoba ibhodlela, uma umthamo weseli ukhula njengoba kulindelekile, kodwa azongeza kuphela umcamelo ongu-5 GW ngokomthamo ohleliwe futhi ngenxa yalokho azokwandisa amandla okuzanelisa abe ngama-76%. Kunoma ikuphi, phakathi kwekota kanye nengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yesidingo kuzoncika ekuthengisweni kwemojuli, okuyisici esiqhubeka nokusongela amanodi okukhiqiza abalulekile ngokwezomnotho.
Ngokuvamile, phakathi kuka-12 GW kanye nama-20 GW wesidingo, ngonyaka, eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo izoba ngaphansi kwengozi engaba khona evela ezindlekweni kanye nenqubomgomo yohwebo enemikhawulo, njengoMthetho Wokuvinjelwa Kwezisebenzi Ngempoqo wase-Uyghur. Lelo themba lisongela ukunikezwa okufika ngesikhathi kwamamojula kubathuthukisi nama-EPC, ngokombono wokutholakala. Ngenkathi i-United States ikhombise ikhono lokululama onyakeni onzima, ngo-2022, ubungozi obukhona bochungechunge lokuthengwa kwempahla olususelwa kwamanye amazwe bubonakaliswe ukuthi buthinta imakethe.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States ibe ngenye yezimakethe ezinkulu kakhulu zokufakwa kwamandla elanga emhlabeni jikelele, naphezu kokuthembela kwayo ngokomlando kumaketanga okunikezela kwamanye amazwe ngaphezu kuka-80% wesidingo sayo. Izici ezimbili zesikali sezinzuzo ze-IRA kanye neprimiyamu yentengo yamamojula imakethe yase-US ewayalayo, kuzoqhubeka nokwenza i-US ibe yimpokophelo eyinhloko yabahlinzeki bemojula abahlose ukwandisa umthamo nokusiza amakhasimende asekhaya. Ngisho nasesimweni samanje, i-United States izofinyelela amazinga okukwazi ukwanelisa amarekhodi azokwenza imakethe ingabi yingozi kangako.
Umthombo ovela pv umagazini
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