Kodwa ingabe imakethe ye-BEV yimbi ngempela njengoba ezinye zezihloko zibonisa?
Impendulo evela kwamanye amaklayenti ethu emkhakheni wokuphakelwa kwengxenye ye-Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) ibonisa ukuthi, ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, ama-oda evolumu ezingxenyeni ngokuvamile ayahluleka ukufeza okulindelwe kwe-OEM okwakushiwo ngaphambili futhi, kwezinye izimo, imigqa yokukhiqiza iyenziwa ingasebenzi. Kodwa ingabe imakethe ye-BEV yimbi ngempela njengoba ezinye zezihloko zibonisa?
Ngonyaka odlule imakethe yase-Europe ye-Passenger Vehicle (PV) BEV ikhule ngo-32% ngokukhula okuhle kuzo zonke izinyanga ngaphandle kuka-December, eyayisuka kusisekelo esiphakeme kakhulu ngoDisemba 2022. Ukukhula okuzuziwe kwakungcono kunezibikezelo eziningi ezikhonjiswe ekuqaleni konyaka odlule (futhi kangcono kunango-2022), kanti abanye balindele ukukhula okuthe xaxa. Inani lokuthengiswa kwe-BEV lingene ngaphansi nje kwamayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.1 okungaphezu kwengxenye yesigidi kunalawo adayiswa ngo-2022. Kuyacaca ukuthi kube khona ukwehla kwemakethe kwakamuva, kodwa kuya ngokuthi ubheka kuphi. Ezinye izinhlobo zenza kangcono kakhulu kunezinye, ngokuthandwa kuka-MG noTesla abagqama njengabadlali abaqinile ngo-2023.
Uma kubhekwa ukuthi ingqalasizinda eshajayo kanye ne-BEV uma iqhathaniswa ne-Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)/izintengo ezixubile kuseyizivunguvungu, bekulindeleke ukuthi amazinga okukhula abonakale kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2021 azokwehla, hhayi ngoba abathengi abakhanga kakhulu kubo ama-BEV (imizi ecebile, enezimoto eziningi enezindawo zokushaja ezingekho emgwaqweni.) Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazinga okutholwa obuchwepheshe obusha azovame ukukhuphuka futhi ehle ngokuhamba kwesikhathi njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwawo kungakhuli ngokufanayo kodwa athuthuka ngochungechunge lwezinyathelo eziholela ekugcineni ekungeneni okucishe kube ngu-100%. Ngokulinganayo, imakethe eminyakeni embalwa edlule ibiqhutshwa ngokwesidingo kanti ngaphambi kwalelo phuzu, i-fleet CO2 okuhlosiwe bekuyisici esikhulu kumazinga aphezulu e-BEV abonwe eshadini elingenhla. Kwamanye ama-OEM okungenani, uhlelo lwesikhathi esimaphakathi lokwakhiwa kwe-BEV olwamiswa ngasekupheleni kuka-2022 noma ekuqaleni kuka-2023 lwalufuna ukuvelela ngokweqile, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa izivunguvungu zezomnotho ezibhekene nabathengi abaningi abafinyelela inani eliphakeme lethonya labo manje ngenxa yomthelela osalele wokukhuphuka kwamazinga enzalo, kanye nomjikelezo wokushintsha izimoto.
Kuthiwani ngo-2024? Hhayi-ke, asilindele ukuthi abantu base-Europe, lilonke, bazizwe becebe kakhulu kunango-2023 nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuqhubeka ukwehla kwabaningi futhi kubonakala sengathi izinga lenzalo linyuke kakhulu. Isidingo sezimoto sisonke sibikezelwa ukuthi sizokwenyuka ngesizotha kuphela (+3%) kodwa ukukhula kwe-BEV bekulokhu kudlula ukukhula kwemakethe yezimoto iminyaka embalwa futhi silindele okufanayo ngo-2024.
Ukusiza lokhu ukuthi kwenzeke kuzoba yingcindezi ephansi ezintengo ezimaphakathi ze-BEV. Izithako zisendaweni yohlobo oluthile lwempi yamanani. Lokhu ngeke kube ngezinga elinonya elibonakala e-China lapho izintengo zezimoto ezifakiwe, kwezinye izimo, zehliswe ukuze zilingane ne-ICE, kodwa kuzosiza ukushintsha ama-BEV. Ama-OEM anobubanzi bokusebenzisa izenzo eziqondiswe phansi zentengo zisebenzisa enye yezinzuzo ezinempilo ezenziwe ngesikhathi senhlekelele yama-chip. Futhi izintengo zebhethri zisezingeni eliphansi njengoba i-lithium yezinga lebhethri nezinye izintengo zezinto ezibucayi manje sezibonwa njengasendleleni engcono - ukwesaba ukushoda kwe-lithium sekwehlile. Sibona ukuguquguquka kwe-OEM kule ndawo kunciphisa inkuthazo. Amabhrendi amaningi ashilo ukuthi azonxephezela ukususwa kwesibonelelo se-BEV saseJalimane, isibonelo.
Phezu kwalokhu, u-2024 uzobona ukwethulwa kwaseYurophu kwamamodeli e-BEV ambalwa athengekayo kubakaki wama-euro angu-20k kuya ku-€25k, okuletha abathengi abanesabelomali esiphansi kunesilinganiso esivamile sentengo ye-BEV engu-€40k ukuya phezulu. Imodeli yakwaHyundai yeCasper iyisibonelo esihle salokhu. Lezi zimoto ezithengekayo zizojoyinwa ezinye izinhlobo eziningi ze-BEV, okwandisa ukukhetha kubathengi. Ngakho-ke, sihlala sinethemba ngo-2024, nakuba silindele ukukhula okuphansi kokuthengiswa kwe-BEV kunalokho okwabonwa ngo-2023.
Al Bedwell, Umqondisi, Global Powertrain, GlobalData
Le ndatshana yashicilelwa okokuqala kuplathifomu yocwaningo ezinikele ye-GlobalData, i-Automotive Intelligence Center
Umthombo ovela Okuzenzakalelayo nje
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