Isibikezelo Semakethe Ye-GlobalData ASEAN Sibuyekezwe Phansi

Ngo-Agasti 2023, ukuthengiswa kwe-ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) kukhuphuke ngo-5% MoM kodwa kwehle ngo-2% YoY. Imiphumela ephansi yokuthengisa ibe ngenxa yemiphumela engemihle e-Indonesia, Thailand naseVietnam.

Ukuthengiswa kwe-Indonesia LV kwehle ngo-6% YoY ngo-Agasti nakuba umcimbi we-GAIKINDO Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) wawubanjwe kuleyo nyanga. Ngokusekelwe olwazini lwakamuva, ukuthengiswa kukaSepthemba kwehle kakhulu ngo-19% YoY enyangeni yesithathu ilandelana. Ngakho-ke, umphumela wokuthengisa we-Indonesia LV wehle ngo-10% YoY ku-Q3 2023 eyehle isuka ku-6% YoY, yenyuka ngo-H1 2023. Ukuthengiswa okubuthakathaka kwekota kungenzeka kube ngenxa yokuthi:

a) isidingo sidonswe phambili ukwehliswa kwentela yesikhashana ngonyaka odlule kanye nezintengo ze-LCGC zenyuka ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka.;

b) abathengi balinde inqubomgomo entsha yezimoto ngemuva kokuthi uhulumeni eveze ukuthi babebhala inqubomgomo entsha ngo-Agasti kodwa abakayimemezela okwamanje;

c) abathengi bangase balinde uhulumeni omusha njengoba ukhetho lukamongameli luzobanjwa ngoFebhuwari 2024.

Ngenxa yokuthi ukuthengiswa kukaSepthemba kungenzeka kube buthakathaka kunezilinganiso zangaphambilini, umbono wokuthengisa wase-Indonesia wango-2023 unqanyuliwe futhi manje kulindeleke ukuthi wehle ngo-2% YoY ukuya kumayunithi angama-944k.

Imakethe ye-LV yaseThailand yehle ngo-6% YoY ngo-Agasti njengoba i-Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) yahlala ibuthakathaka (-33% YoY). Kuhle ukukhumbula ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwe-LCV kwehlile kusukela ngoNovemba 2022 ngenxa yokuqiniswa kwemvume yemali mboleko yezimoto kule ngxenye kanye nesimo somnotho esingesihle. Ngokuphambene, ingxenye Yezimoto Zabagibeli (PV) ikhule ngo-8% YoY ngo-August, okuyinyanga yesishiyagalombili ilandelana yokukhula, ikhushulwa yisibonelelo semali saseThailand sokuthenga imodeli ye-BEV. Ngokobuhlakani bethu bemakethe, ukuthengiswa kukaSepthemba kuyaqhubeka ukwehla ngo-16% YoY kanye nokuthengiswa kwe-Q3 2023 kwehle ngo-12% YoY okubi kakhulu kune-H1 2023 (-5% YoY). Ngenxa yalokho, sibikezela ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwe-Thailand kwango-2023 kuzokwehla ngo-7% YoY kuye kumayunithi angama-771k. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imakethe ye-LV kanye nomnotho kusengozini ephansi ngenxa yesidingo esithambile somhlaba wonke, ukwehla kweChina kanye nezinombolo zethrafikhi yezivakashi ezibuthakathaka.

Nakuba uhulumeni waseVietnam wethule kabusha uhlelo lokunciphisa imali yokubhalisa yesikhashana kumamodeli akhiwe endaweni asukela mhla lu-1 kuNtulikazi - zingama-31 kuZibandlela wezi-2023, ukufunwa kwe-LV kusaqhubeka nokuba nzima; Ukuthengiswa kukaJulayi no-Agasti kwehle ngo-6% YoY no-17% YoY, ngokulandelana. Lo mphumela ongemuhle udalwe yimbuyiselo yohlelo lwesikhashana lwezibonelelo ngonyaka odlule, izindleko eziphezulu zezimali, kanye nokuqiniswa kwezimo zezikweletu. Okuphawuleka kakhulu, ukuzethemba kwabathengi kanye namabhizinisi kwehlile, njengoba imakethe yezwe eyake yabhebhetheka kakhulu ngemuva kokuthi uhulumeni ethathe izinyathelo zokuqinisa amandla futhi ethule imikhankaso yokulwa nokugxunyekwa. Njengoba isilinganiso sokuvuselela singakwazi ukukhuphula isidingo, umbono wokuthengisa waseVietnam uncishiswe waba amayunithi angama-417k (-12% YoY) kulo nyaka, kodwa ivolumu yokuthengisa yango-2023 isazoba eyesibili ngezindali zonyaka ezirekhodiwe.

Ngemuva kokuthi ukuthengiswa kwe-Malaysia LV kukhuphuke ngo-33% YoY kanye no-8% MoM ngoJulayi, isidingo sahlala siqinile njengoba sikhuphuke ngo-8% YoY kanye no-13% MoM ngo-August. Ukukhula kwaqhutshwa ukuthuthukiswa kwe-supply chain kanye nemikhankaso yokuthengisa enolaka enyangeni. Ukuthengiswa kukaSepthemba kwehle ngo-5% MoM. Ukwehla kwezinga ngoSepthemba kudalwe ikakhulukazi abathengi abalindele ukubona isabelomali sikahulumeni sika-2024 simenyezelwe ngomhla ziyi-13 kuMfumfu.

Naphezu kokwehla kukaSepthemba, imiphumela ibisephezulu kunalokho ebesikulindele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abaphathi beProton baveze ukuthi imodeli yesine yeProton-Geely izokhishwa ngoNovemba, ngakho ukuthengisa kungase kunyuke ekupheleni kwalo nyaka. Njengomphumela, ukuqagela kokuthengiswa kwe-Malaysia 2023 kukhushulelwe kumayunithi angama-768k (+8% YoY). 

Ukuthengiswa kwe-LV ePhilippines kusezingeni elikhulayo lesidingo. Ukuthengiswa kuka-Agasti kweqe ngo-28% YOY njengenyanga yeshumi nesishiyagalombili ilandelana yokukhula ngamadijithi amabili. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthengisa okumaphakathi kwanyanga zonke kuqhubekile nokukhula kusuka kumayunithi angama-33k ku-Q1 2023 kuya kumayunithi angama-36k ku-Q2 2023 kanye namayunithi angama-38k ngoJulayi - Agasti 2023. Ukukhula kwasekelwa ukususwa kwezingqinamba ze-sport chain, i-oda elikhulu lokusalela emuva kusukela ngonyaka odlule, ukuthuthukisa ukuzethemba kwabathengi kanye nokungena okuqinile okuqhubekayo kwezimali eziphuma e-Philippines.

Isibikezelo sokuthengisa asishintshile, ngaphandle kwezinguquko ezincane ezikhuphukayo ngo-2023-2024. Ukuthengisa manje kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule cishe ngamayunithi angu-18% kuya ku-429k kulo nyaka, okuzoba ukuthengiswa kwesibili okuphezulu emlandweni wemakethe. Ngonyaka olandelayo, silindele ukukhula kokuthengisa kube okuyisicaba (+0.8%), kulandela iminyaka emithathu elandelanayo yokukhula okunamadijithi amabili.

Ukufingqa, ukuthengiswa kwe-ASEAN LV manje kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla kancane ngo-0.3% YoY kuya kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-3.33 kulo nyaka ngokusebenza okuphansi kokuthengisa e-Indonesia, Thailand naseVietnam. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthengiswa kuka-2023 emazweni ashiwo kusengozini ephansi.

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