Ingcweti Yobuciko Bokubikezela Kwesidingo Ngalezi Zindlela Ezi-5

Abathengi banamuhla bafuna kakhulu, balindele imikhiqizo engcono nolwazi. Uma benganelisekile, bavame ukubheka kwenye indawo. Ucwaningo lwe 25,000 abathengi emhlabeni jikelele uveze ukuthi u-64% ufuna izinkampani zisabele ngokushesha ezidingweni zazo ezithuthukayo.

Indlela yendabuko yokuthi “yenza, yithengise, phinda” ayisahlangabezani nokulindelwe ngamakhasimende. Amabhizinisi manje kufanele alindele ukuthi amakhasimende afunani ngaphambi kokuthi azi futhi alethe lezo zifiso ngaphambi komncintiswano. 

Kodwa amabhizinisi angabikezela kanjani kahle ukuthi amakhasimende awo afunani? Qhubeka nokufunda njengoba sihlola izindlela ezi-5 zokubikezela isidingo sokusiza amakhasimende azizwe ezwiwa futhi eqondwa.

Okuqukethwe
Kuyini ukubikezela kwesidingo futhi kungani kubalulekile?
Izinhlobo ezi-3 zokubikezela kwesidingo okudingeka uzazi
5 funa amasu okubikezela ukukusiza ugweme lezimanga
Ukubikezela kwesidingo sesikhathi sangempela kuzoshintsha amaketanga okunikezela

Kuyini ukubikezela kwesidingo futhi kungani kubalulekile?

Isibikezelo sesidingo sifana nokuba yisazi sesimo sezulu, kodwa esikhundleni sokubikezela ukukhanya kwelanga noma imvula, amabhizinisi abikezela ukuthi ingakanani inani lamakhasimende omkhiqizo wawo azolifisa ezikhathini ezizayo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukubikezela isidingo samakhasimende kumane kuyinqubo yokulinganisa enquma isidingo sesikhathi esizayo sezimpahla noma amasevisi enkampani.

Ukubikezela okunjalo akuwona umphumela wokuqagela. Esikhundleni salokho, amabhizinisi asebenzisa izindlela zobuningi, njengamathuluzi ezibalo nezomnotho, nezindlela zekhwalithi, njengezinhlolovo zemakethe noma umbono wochwepheshe, ukubikezela ngokunembile amathrendi adingekayo. Lezi zindlela sizozihlola ngokujulile ezigabeni ezilandelayo.

Ukubikezela kwezidingo kuyisici esibalulekile sokuphathwa kwe-supply chain, futhi izinkampani zingazuza kakhulu ngokuzisebenzisa ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene:

• Ukwenza kahle ukuphathwa kwempahla: Ngokubikezela isidingo sesikhathi esizayo ngokunembile, amabhizinisi angagcina amazinga e-inventory alungile. Lokhu kungabasiza bagweme ukuphela kwesitoko, okungase kuholele ekulahlekeni kokuthengiswa namakhasimende acasukile, noma ukugcwala ngokweqile okungadingekile, okuhlanganisa imali enkulu futhi kudaleke izinkinga zokulondoloza.
• Ukunciphisa izindleko: Amabhizinisi angakwazi ukwaba izinsiza ngokuphumelelayo ngokubikezela ngokunembile isidingo sesikhathi esizayo nokwandisa noma ukuhoxiswa kwamandla okukhiqiza kanye nabasebenzi. Lokhu kungasiza ekunciphiseni ukumosha ekwabiweni kwezinsiza, ukunciphisa izindleko kanye nokwenza ngcono inzuzo.
• Ukuthuthukisa ukwaneliseka kwamakhasimende: Ukuqonda isidingo samakhasimende kuhilela ukuhlangabezana noma ukudlula izidingo zekhasimende ngokuqinisekisa ukuthi imikhiqizo efanele iyatholakala uma futhi idingeka. Izibikezelo zezidingo zivumela amabhizinisi ukuthi aqondanise amaketanga awo okuhlinzeka nesidingo samakhasimende, okuholela ekwanelisekeni kwamakhasimende kanye nezinqumo zebhizinisi ezihlakaniphile.

Izinhlobo ezi-3 zokubikezela kwesidingo okudingeka uzazi

Ukubikezela kwesidingo kubandakanya amathuluzi namasu ahlukahlukene. Kodwa-ke, ngaphambi kokuthi singene kulokhu, kubalulekile ukuthi siqale sibambe umqondo wokuhlaziya isidingo. Ulungele ukuvakasha okusheshayo? Ake sihlole izinhlobo ezintathu eziyinhloko zokubikezela isidingo:

Ukubikezela okufanelekile

Izindlela zokubikezela ezifanele zivame ukusetshenziswa uma idatha yomlando ingatholakali noma ibhizinisi lethula umkhiqizo omusha noma lingena emakethe entsha. Incike olwazini nolwazi lochwepheshe bemboni, emibonweni yabathintekayo, nezinye izici ezizimele esikhundleni sedatha yezibalo emsulwa.

Isibonelo, ake sithi inkampani yama-smartphone ihlela ukwethula imodeli yocingo entsha. Bangase basebenzise izindlela zokubikezela ezisezingeni elifanele njengamaqembu okugxilwe kuwo, izinhlolovo, noma izingxoxo ukuze baqonde ukuthi yiziphi izici abathengi abangazithanda, ukuthi bangavuma ukukhokha malini, nokuthi mangaki amayunithi inkampani engalindela ukuwathengisa. Ububi bokubikezela kwekhwalithi? I-subjective futhi ingathonywa ukuchema kwengqondo.

Uchungechunge lwesikhathi ludinga isibikezelo

Ukubikezela kwesidingo sochungechunge lwesikhathi kuyindlela yokubikezela yobuningi yokubikezela izidingo zamakhasimende zesikhathi esizayo. Le ndlela esekelwe kudatha icubungula idatha yomlando ukuze ilinganise isidingo sesikhathi esizayo. 

Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukuhlola idatha yokuthengisa edlule ukuze kukhonjwe amaphethini, amathrendi akhulayo, nanoma yiziphi izinguquko ezixhunywe ezikhathini ezihlukene zonyaka, ezingaba nomthelela ekufuneni kwesikhathi esizayo. Isebenzisa izindlela zezibalo ezifana komugqa ekuhlehleni futhi ukuhamba ngamaphesenti ukwakha lezi zibikezelo zesidingo.

Phakathi kwalezi zindlela, ukuhlehla komugqa kufana nokudweba umugqa oqondile ongcono kakhulu ngokusebenzisa iqembu lamaphoyinti kugrafu. Lo mugqa uwukuqagela okungcono kakhulu kwethrendi eyisisekelo kudatha, ngaleyo ndlela usize ukubikezela izimo zesikhathi esizayo. Uma sibona umugqa wokuthengisa owedlule uthrenda phezulu, kuyinkomba ewusizo yokuthi ukuthengisa okuzayo nakho kungase kunyuke.

Ukubikezela kwesidingo esiqhubekayo

Ukubikezela kwesidingo esingaguquki kungenye indlela yobuningi esebenzisa idatha yokuthengisa edlule ukubikezela isidingo sesikhathi esizayo. Kepha ngokungafani nokubikezela kwesidingo sochungechunge lwesikhathi, ukubikezela kwesidingo okungenzi lutho kuthathwa njengokulula kakhulu. Ngokuvamile ilungele amabhizinisi anentengiso yesizini noma ekhula kancane kancane (izinkampani ezibona iphethini efanayo ekuthengisweni konyaka nonyaka).

Ake sicabangele isitolo esincane esidayisayo Imihlobiso kaKhisimusi. Njengomsebenzi wewashi, ukuthengisa kwabo kukhuphuka ngoNovemba nangoDisemba njalo ngonyaka futhi kuthule unyaka wonke. Lesi sitolo singasebenzisa ukubikezela kwesidingo esimisiwe ngokubheka ukuthengiswa kwaso kokugcina kukaNovemba noDisemba ukuze sithole umbono omuhle wokuthi yini ongayilindela kulo nyaka. Besebenzisa isibonelo esilula, uma bethengisa imihlobiso yesihlahla sikaKhisimusi eyi-100 ngoDisemba odlule, futhi ibhizinisi likhula kancane, bangalindela ukuthengisa cishe nge-110 noma i-120 kulo nyaka.

5 funa amasu okubikezela ukukusiza ugweme lezimanga

Uhlome ngolwazi lwezinhlobo ezahlukene zokubikezela isidingo, manje sekuyisikhathi sokuhlola amasu okubikezela amahlanu aphezulu ngokujulile futhi uqonde ukusebenza kwawo kwe-nitty-gritty:

Indlela ye-Delphi

Indlela ye-Delphi iyinqubo yekhwalithi ephindaphindayo esebenzisa ukuhlakanipha okuhlangene kweqembu lochwepheshe. Le ndlela yokuphindaphinda igxile ekucwengisiseni imibono nezincomo ezivela kubantu abahlukahlukene abanolwazi ukuze benze ukuqagela okunembayo okuphathelene nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo somkhiqizo noma sesevisi. Nakhu ukuhlukaniswa kwale nqubo ephindaphindwayo:

1. Ukukhetha ochwepheshe: Hlanganisa iqembu elihlukahlukene lochwepheshe emkhakheni webhizinisi, okuhlanganisa ochwepheshe bemboni, abahlaziyi bemakethe, noma amalungu anolwazi lwangaphakathi enhlangano anolwazi olubanzi lwemakethe.
2. Ukubuza umbuzo: Umsizi uthumela inhlolovo kochwepheshe, equkethe imibuzo ehambisana nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo sebhizinisi, njengokuthi, “Iziphi izici ezizoba nomthelela ekudingweni komkhiqizo wethu eminyakeni emibili ezayo?”
3. Iqoqa imibono: Izimpendulo zenhlolovo ziqoqwa ngokuzimela kuchwepheshe ngamunye, kuqinisekiswe ukuvezwa kwemicabango okukhululekile ngaphandle kokuphazamisa imibono yabanye.
4. Ukwabelana ngempendulo: Umgqugquzeli uhlanganisa uhlaka lwemibono nemibono ebalulekile edluliselwe ezimpendulweni futhi asabalalise kabusha lesi sifinyezo eqenjini, okuvumela ochwepheshe ukuba bahlole izitayela nemibono evamile kontanga yabo.
5. Ukuhlola kabusha imibono: Ngalolu lwazi olusha, ochwepheshe bahlola kabusha izimpendulo zabo zangaphambilini futhi benze izibuyekezo ngokusekelwe emininingwaneni ezuzwe kwabanye ababambi qhaza.
6. Iphinda inqubo: Ukuze kufinyelelwe esivumelwaneni, umjikelezo wokubuza, ukwabelana ngempendulo, nokubuyekeza imibono kuyaphindwa kuze kube yilapho ukubikezela kochwepheshe kuhambisana.

ucwaningo Market

ucwaningo Market kuyinqubo ehlelekile yokuqoqa, ukuhlaziya, nokuhumusha idatha ebalulekile mayelana nezintandokazi, izidingo, nokuziphatha kwabathengi. Njengesu lokubikezela isidingo esiseqophelweni eliphezulu, lisebenzisa izingxoxo zeqembu kanye nezinhlolovo ukuze kuqondwe okuthandwa ngabathengi kanye nokulindela isidingo sesikhathi esizayo semikhiqizo noma amasevisi.

Ake sicabangele isimo lapho uhlobo oluthile luthengisa khona amabha kashokoledi amnandi. Baye baqaphela ukwehla okuqhubekayo ekuthengisweni kwabo kwebha kashokoledi wobisi. Esikhundleni sokwethuka, basebenzise amakhono abo aphezulu okuba ngabaseshi futhi benza ucwaningo lwemakethe olusezingeni eliphezulu.

Ibhrendi ihlele izingxoxo zeqembu eligxilile nabathandi bakashokoledi abavela emaqenjini ahlukene obudala, izizinda, kanye nezindawo. Bababuza ngokuthanda kwabo ushokoledi - Ingabe bayawujabulela ushokoledi wobisi, noma bawushokholethi omnyama noma omhlophe? Ingabe bafuna oshokoledi abanemvelaphi eyodwa? Ingabe bakhetha amantongomane angeziwe, izithelo, noma ezinye izithako ngaphakathi kwamabha kashokoledi?

Baphinde bathumela izinhlolovo eziku-inthanethi kuzithameli eziningi ngamakhasi abo ezinkundla zokuxhumana ukuze baqoqe eminye imininingwane yokuthi kungani beshintsha. Ingabe bakhathalela kakhulu impilo? I-Vegan? Noma ingabe bamane balandela izitayela ze-Instagram?

Lapho imiphumela isingenile, bathola isidingo esikhulayo sikashokholethi we-vegan, lapho abathengi befuna okunye ukudla okwenziwa ngaphandle kobisi. Baphinde bathola ukuthi amakhasimende abo alangazelela ubuciko - ukulangazelela izithako ezithokozisayo namaphrofayili e-flavour angalindelekile.

Ngokusekelwe kule mininingwane, umkhiqizo wethule ibha kashokoledi emnyama enobungani be-vegan enenhlanganisela ethokozisayo yolwandle usawoti kanye ne-caramel. Lesi akusona isinqumo esingahleliwe esisekelwe kuzifiso; inamasu, ibalwa, futhi yaziswa ngokuthandwa ngabathengi - konke ngenxa yocwaningo olunzulu lwemakethe.

Imodeli yokubikezela i-Naïve

Imodeli yokubikezela ye-Naïve iyindlela yobuningi eqondile esebenzisa isidingo sangempela senkathi yakamuva kakhulu ukucacisa isibikezelo esilandelayo. Le modeli isebenza ngesimiso sokuthi umlando uvame ukuziphinda, okubonisa ukuthi idatha yangaphambilini ingabikezela ngokunembile isidingo sesikhathi esizayo. Ngenxa yokuthi ayidingi izibalo eziyinkimbinkimbi noma imininingwane yezibalo ejulile, ibizwa kufanele ngokuthi 'yi-naïve.'

Ake sithi umnikazi webhizinisi usebenzisa isitolo se-e-commerce esikhethekile ngamabhodlela amanzi asebenziseka kalula asebenziseka kalula. Lawa mabhodlela athole ukuthandwa okukhulu ngenxa yemvelo yawo evumelana nemvelo, abonisa isidingo esingaguquki phakathi nezinyanga ezimbalwa.

Ngokusebenzisa imodeli yokubikezela i-naïve, umnikazi wesitolo uzoncika ekuthengisweni kwenyanga yakamuva (isb, amabhodlela amanzi angu-500) ukubikezela isidingo senyanga ezayo. Njengoba isidingo samabhodlela amanzi asebenziseka kabusha sihlala sizinzile ngaphandle kokuthintwa izinguquko zesizini noma amathrendi emakethe, ubulula bemodeli ye-naïve bubikezela ngokunembile ukuthengiswa okulindelekile enyangeni elandelayo.

Imodeli ye-Probabilistic

Amamodeli angamathuba angamathuluzi okubikezela ezibalo athuthukile ancike kakhulu kumafomula ezibalo nezilinganiso zezibalo. Zisetshenziswa lapho ikusasa lingaqinisekile. I-'Probabilistic' isuka egameni elithi 'Okungenzeka,' igama lezibalo lamathuba okuba kwenzeke isigameko.

Kumodeli ye-probabilistic, amabhizinisi asebenzisa idatha yokuthengisa edlule kanye namafomula ezibalo ukuze abikezele izimfuno ezingaba khona zesikhathi esizayo. Kusho ukuthini lokho? Kalula nje, kufana nokubheka ukuthengiswa kwangaphambili kwezigqoko zelanga ezinyangeni zasehlobo. Uma ukuthengiswa okuphezulu kwenzeka njalo ngoJuni, uJulayi, no-Agasti, imodeli engenzeka futhi ingabikezela ukuthengiswa okuphezulu kulezi zinyanga eminyakeni ezayo ngokusekelwe kuphethini eyibonayo.

"Ukusabalalisa kwe-Poisson" kanye "nemodeli yamathuba e-Bayesian" amamodeli angenzeka adumile:

Imodeli ye-Poisson

Cabanga ngokusatshalaliswa kwe-Poisson njengokubikezela imvula. Singase sazi ukuthi kungenzeka line izinsuku ezingu-10 kwezingu-30, kodwa asikwazi ukubikezela ukuthi yiziphi izinsuku eziqondile lezo ezizoba ngazo — lokho kuyazenzekela. Ngokufanayo, ukusatshalaliswa kwePoisson kusiza amabhizinisi ukuthi alinganisele ukuthi mangaki amakhasimende, angasho, angena esitolo noma kuwebhusayithi yawo usuku ngalunye.

Uma usebenzisa ukusatshalaliswa kwe-Poisson, umnikazi webhizinisi angabona ukuthi bathengisa izigqoko ezingaba ngu-100 nsuku zonke ngokwesilinganiso. Ngezinsuku ezinelanga, leli nani liyenyuka, futhi ngezinsuku eziguqubele, liyacwila. Ngemodeli ye-Poisson, isitolo singathola:

• Amathuba okuthengisa, yisho izigqoko ezingu-50 ngosuku oluguqubele,
• Noma izigqoko ezindizayo eziyi-150 ngosuku olushisayo!

Imodeli yaseBayesi

Imodeli yamathuba e-Bayesian imayelana nokubuyekeza izibikezelo njengoba idatha entsha ingena. Ake sicabange ukuthi uhlobo lwempahla luthengisa amajazi asebusika ku-inthanethi. Ngokusekelwe kudatha yomlando (izinkolelo zangaphambili), kuqashelwa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwamajazi asebusika ngoSepthemba kube kuphansi kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, umkhiqizo ungase uqale ukubikezela ukuthi leli phethini lizoqhubeka ngesizini ezayo kaSepthemba.

Kodwa-ke, kule sizini yamanje kaSepthemba, babona ukwenyuka okungazelelwe ekuthengisweni maphakathi nenyanga (ubufakazi obusha). Le datha ibashukumisela ukuba babuyekeze ukuqagela kwabo kokuqala. Esinye sezizathu okungenzeka kube ukwehla kwezinga lokushisa kungazelelwe noma ubusika obusanda kuqala ngokungavamile kulo nyaka.

Ngale datha entsha, uhlobo manje lulungisa ukubikezela kwalo kusetshenziswa imodeli ye-Bayesian, ilindele ukwanda kwesidingo esikhathini samanje futhi mhlawumbe nesizini ezayo kaSepthemba (amathuba angemuva). Ibhizinisi le-eCommerce lingagcina ngokufanele, lilungele ukuhlangabezana nesidingo esingalindelekile.

Imodeli yokufunda yomshini

Imodeli yokufunda yomshini isebenzisa ukufunda okujulile namanethiwekhi e-neural ukubona ubudlelwano obuyinkimbinkimbi. Lobu budlelwano buvamise ukuxaka kakhulu futhi akunamugqa ukuze amathuluzi ezibalo endabuko angaxazululwa. Kuzwakala kuhlaba umxhwele, akunjalo? 

Kubone ngeso lengqondo njengobuchopho bedijithali obufunda ngokungaphezi kumaphethini obukayo, lapho, kulo mongo, amaphethini kuyimikhuba yokuthenga kwabathengi. Njengendlela ubuchopho bethu obuqinisa ngayo inkumbulo ngokuphindaphinda nokubuka, amamodeli okufunda ngomshini nawo azivumelanisa futhi alungise ukuqonda ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Njengesibonelo, cabanga ngebhizinisi elithengisa imikhiqizo yokunakekelwa kobuhle besifazane. Bangakwazi ukusebenzisa ithuluzi elinjalo Isixazululo se-Chovm sika-AI. Le nkundla ilingisa futhi ihlole isidingo semakethe bese icubungula kusengaphambili idatha isebenzisa ubuhlakani bedatha kanye nama-algorithms okubikezela ochungechunge lwesikhathi.

Imodeli yokufunda yomshini ingahlonza amathrendi avelayo ngokuhlaziya amaphethini okuthenga amakhasimende. Isibonelo, ingase ibone ukwanda kwesidingo sokuvikela ilanga njalo ehlobo. Njengesinye isibonelo, imodeli ingase ibone ukuthi i-lipstick ye-edishini ekhethekile ifunwa kakhulu noma nini lapho ibhizinisi liqala ukusebenzisana okusha nomgqugquzeli womculi wokwenza izimonyo ovelele.

Ukubikezela kwesidingo sesikhathi sangempela kuzoshintsha amaketanga okunikezela

Ukuthi amabhizinisi anquma ukusebenzisa indlela yekhwalithi efana nocwaningo lwemakethe nezinhlolovo, noma indlela yobuningi ethuthukisiwe njengamamodeli okufunda komshini (noma inhlanganisela yakho kokubili), kuyacaca ukuthi ukubikezela kwesidingo kunezinguquko ezinkulu. 

Ukuvela kokuvela kwesibikezelo sesikhathi ukuya ekubikezelweni kwesikhathi sangempela kuqhutshwa ukutholakala okwandayo kwedatha esheshayo mayelana nokuziphatha kwamakhasimende. Lokhu kushesha kusho ukuthi amabhizinisi akusadingeki ukuthi alinde amasonto noma izinyanga ukuze aqoqe idatha futhi enze izibikezelo. 

Bangakwazi ukulungisa ngokushesha, bavumele ukwenziwa kwezinqumo ezinembe kakhudlwana. Ngokwenza lokhu, amabhizinisi ayakwazi ukuphendula ngokushesha kakhudlwana kumashifu esidingo, okuholela ekwakhekeni kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezinto olusebenza kahle futhi olusabelayo. Ukuze uthole amanye amasu namasu okuthi uwaqonda kanjani amakhasimende nokuziphatha kwawo, bheka isikhungo sebhulogi!