Naphezu kokululama kwakamuva, umnotho wase-US uye waba mubi ngekota yokuqala ka-2022.
Ukushoda kwezohwebo okwandayo, okugqugquzelwa ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo kokuthengwa kwempahla, kanye nokwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali kwempahla kuye kwacindezela ukukhula komnotho kukonke.
Ngenxa yalokho, I-GDP yangempela isilungisiwe lehle ngenani laminyaka yonke lika-1.4% kwikota yokuqala ka-2022, okuphawula ukwehla kokuqala selokhu kwaqala ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 (coronavirus).
Ukuphazamiseka kwe-Supply chain kube umshayeli oyinhloko wokwehla kwe-GDP njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka kwaze kwaba iminyaka engu-40 ngenkathi i-United States iqhubeka nokungenisa impahla ukuze ihlangabezane nesidingo sasekhaya.
Njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi kanye nezinga lokungasebenzi liye laqhubeka lithuthuka, i-Federal Reserve iye yagcina izinhlelo zayo zokukhuphula amanani enzalo ukuze inciphise ukusheshisa komsebenzi wezomnotho.
Nokho, lokhu kuqinise ukukhathazeka ngokuwohloka komnotho okuzayo.
Imakethe yezabasebenzi
- Isibalo semisebenzi engezona ezokulima senyuke ngezigidi eziyi-1.6 kwikota yokuqala ka-2022, sengeze eminye imisebenzi eyizi-428,000 ngo-Ephreli kuphela.
- Ukukhula kwemisebenzi kugqugquzelwe kakhulu ukukhula okuqhubekayo kulo bhubhane, okulethe imakethe yezabasebenzi ezingeni layo langaphambi kobhubhane. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kwemisebenzi kuye kwahluka emikhakheni eyahlukene, okwenza ingxube yomsebenzi yehluke kunangaphambili kwalolu bhubhane.
- Umkhakha wezokungcebeleka kanye neHospitality ube neqhaza elikhulu ekukhuleni kwamathuba omsebenzi, wengeza imisebenzi engu-78,000 ngo-April 2022. Umkhakha Wezemfundo Nezempilo ube ngowesibili ngokubamba iqhaza elikhulu ekukhuleni kwamathuba omsebenzi, wengeza imisebenzi engu-59,000 ngo-April.
- Ukusebenza okuqinile komkhakha wezokudayisa kukhombisa ukuthi ukuqashwa kwabantu ngokudayisa kwenyukile, naphezu kwesidingo esiqhubekayo sokudayiswa ngaphandle kwesitolo. Lokhu kukhula kudalwe kakhulu ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi okuqhubekayo kanye nokunciphisa imikhawulo ehlobene nobhubhane.
- Iholo elimaphakathi ngehora lazo zonke izisebenzi ezingezona ezamapulazi lenyuke ngo-$0.10 ngo-April 2022. Nokho, isilinganiso sangempela semali etholwayo ngehora esishintshe ukwehla kwamandla emali sehle kancane ngenxa yokuqhubeka nokukhuphuka kwamandla emali. Khonamanjalo, ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle njengoba kusondela emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane.

Ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi
- Izindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu (PCE) zikhule ngo-3.8% ngekota yokuqala ka-2022.
- I-PCE yonyaka nonyaka ikhuphuke ngo-9.1% ngoMashi 2022. Lokhu kukhula kwezindleko zabathengi kuye kwaqhutshwa kakhulu ukusetshenziswa kwempahla engahlali isikhathi eside, ikakhulukazi kuphethiloli nezinye izimpahla zamandla kanye nokudla okuthengelwe ukusetshenziswa ngaphandle kwezakhiwo.
- Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ezimpahleni ezihlala isikhathi eside kuqhubekile nokukhula ngekota yokuqala ka-2022, kukhuphuke ngo-5.4%. Lokhu kwanda kudalwe ukwanda okukhulu kwefenisha nempahla yasendlini ehlala isikhathi eside kanye nezimpahla zokungcebeleka nezimoto.
- Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ezimpahleni ezingabekezeleleki nakho kunyukile ngekota yokuqala, okuqhutshwa ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli nezinye izimpahla zamandla okukhuphuke ngo-19.3% ngesikhathi esifanayo. Ukwengeza, ukusetshenziswa kwemali ekudleni naseziphuzweni ezithengelwe ukusetshenziswa ngaphandle kwezakhiwo kukhuphuke ngo-4.0% ngekota yokuqala ka-2022.
- Okokugcina, ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza zezokuthutha, okukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-4.7 ngekota yokuqala yonyaka wezi-2022, kanye nezinkonzo zezokungcebeleka, ezikhule ngo-4.4% ngesikhathi esifanayo, kwenze ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwezinsiza kunyuke ngo-2.7% ngekota yokuqala.
Ukwehla kwamandla
- Inkomba yentengo ye-PCE (ngaphandle kokudla namandla), isilinganiso se-inflation esithandwayo se-Federal Reserve, sikhuphuke ngo-1.1% engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022. Ngakho-ke, ukwehla kwamandla emali konyaka ku-5.2% ngonyaka ophela ngo-March 2022, ukwanda okukhulu kusukela ngo-1982.
- Nakuba i-Federal Reserve iqapha izinkomba zamanani amaningi ukuze ilinganise ukwehla kwamandla emali, ikhetha izindlela eziyinhloko zokwehla kwamandla emali ezingafaki izinto eziguqukayo ezifana nokudla namandla. Nakuba lezi zinto zingaba nezinguquko ezinkulu zezintengo phakathi nenkathi ethile, akusho ngempela ukuthi izintengo zazo zizolandela leyo threndi esikhathini esilandelayo. Ngakho-ke, ngaphandle kwalezi zinto kuyindlela ekhethwayo ye-Federal Reserve yokuhlola izitayela zokwehla kwamandla emali.
- Ukwehla kwamandla emali, njengoba kukalwa yi-Consumer Price Index futhi okuhlanganisa ukudla namandla, kukhuphuke ngo-8.5% onyakeni ophela ngoNdasa wezi-2022. Ukwengeza, kukhuphuke ngo-3.1% kwikota yokuqala ka-2022 iyodwa.
- Izinkinga eziqhubekayo ze-supply chain ezibangelwa ubhubhane lwe-coronavirus kanye neMpi yase-Ukraine-Russia yizona ezihamba phambili zokukhuphuka kwamandla emali. Isidingo sabathengi esilindile kulandela lo bhubhane sibangele ukutholakala okulinganiselwe, okukhuphula amanani. Ukwengeza, Impi yase-Ukraine-Russia kanye nezijeziso ezalandela ezabekwa eRussia zenze ukuba izintengo zamandla negesi zikhuphuke kakhulu.
- Ukuze kuliwe nokwenyuka okungokomlando kokwehla kwamandla emali, i-Federal Reserve, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke, inyuse ama-interest rate ngo-2022.

Izitayela zokuhlala
- Ukwenyuka kwamanani ezindlu kusalokhu kuphakeme ngekota yokuqala ka-2022, kukhuphuka kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yesine ka-2021. Ngokusebenzisa lokhu kukhula, ukwakhiwa kwezindlu ezintsha kuhlale kuqinile, kukhule ngo-6.3% phakathi nekota. Nokho, ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kukhuphule izindleko zokuboleka amaphrojekthi amakhulu okwakha, okubangele ukwehla kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota edlule.
- Sekukonke, ukwakhiwa kwezindlu ezintsha kumile, njengoba kusakhiwa amayunithi angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-1.5 ngekota yokuqala ka-2022, asele ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane njengoba ukukhula kungenzeka kuqhubeke. Kodwa-ke, ukuthengiswa kwezindlu ezintsha kwehle ngo-Ephreli 2022 ngenxa yamanani aphezulu ezindlu ahambisana nokukhuphuka kwamanani emali mboleko.
- Ukwakhiwa kwemindeni eminingi kukhule ngokuqhubekayo, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yokuphela kwendiza yasemadolobheni kanye nokubuya kwabaqashi emadolobheni njengoba amahhovisi evulwa kabusha. Izindawo eziqashisayo ezifunwa kakhulu emadolobheni kuyilapho ukwakhiwa kusaqhubeka kukhuphule amanani; isibonelo, izintengo zokuqasha e-New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles nase-Boston ziphezulu kakhulu.
- Izicelo ze-mortgage zase-US zehlile ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamazinga emali ebolekiwe, ukudida kwesidingo semalimboleko yokuthenga amakhaya kanye nomsebenzi wokuxhasa ngezimali kabusha. Ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo okuzolandelwa kulo nyaka, lo mkhuba usaqhubeka nokulandela. Kodwa-ke, i-Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) ibike ukuthi I-Market Composite Index, isilinganiso sevolumu yesicelo semali mboleko yezindlu, inyuke ngo-2.5% ngesonto eliphela ngo-Ephreli 29, 2022, okumaka ukwenyuka kokuqala kwamasonto onke esikhathini esingaphezu kwenyanga. Naphezu kokukhula, akulindelekile ukuthi kuphawule umkhuba wesikhathi eside.
Amathrendi okungezona ezokuhlala
- Ukwakhiwa kwezindawo ezingezona izindawo zokuhlala kukhuphuke ngo-0.8% ngekota yokuqala ka-2022, eqhutshwa kakhulu ukukhiqiza, ukongiwa kwemvelo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kanye nezakhiwo zokuphepha komphakathi. Ukukhiqizwa kokukhiqiza sekucishe kwabuyela emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane, okwenza ukwakhiwa kokukhiqiza kuhlangabezane nesidingo.
- Ukwenyuka kwemikhiqizo yezimboni kanye nomphumela wezimboni phakathi nokusimama komnotho kulolu bhubhane kube nomthelela ekwenyukeni komsebenzi wokwakhiwa kokuphakelwa kwamanzi kanye nemishini yokonga, okuzosiza ukukhuphuka kokusetshenziswa kwamandla. Ukwengeza, ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kwakamuva kukhuthaze izinkampani zezinsiza ukuthi zibuyisele imishini ephelelwe yisikhathi. Kodwa-ke, imali ebolekiwe yezentengiselwano neyezimboni yehlile, ekhombisa ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali ezimbonini nasezintweni zokusebenza kanye nemali yokusebenza.
- UMthetho Wotshalomali Lwengqalasizinda Nemisebenzi ka-$1.2 trillion wakamuva (i-IIJA) uvuselele uxhaso lwezimali ezinhlelweni ezintsha neziwumgogodla, ikakhulukazi lezo zokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, ukulungisa amabhuloho, ukwandisa ingqalasizinda eshaja izimoto zikagesi kanye neminye imiklamo emikhulu yengqalasizinda okunzima ukuyixhasa ngezinye izindlela.

Izimakethe zezimali
- Ukungalingani kwempahla nezidingo kanye nokukhushulwa kwamaholo kuqhubekile nokuba nomthelela ekukhathazekeni kokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukuphendula, i-Federal Open Market Committee (i-FOMC) isiqalile ukusebenzisa ukukhuphuka kwezinga elinolaka, elokuqala lakhona eliqale ngoMashi 2022. Izinga le-Federal Funds likhuphuke kabili kwikota yokuqala futhi njengamanje lisebenza ku-0.33%. Lokhu kukhuphuka kwamanani kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke ngo-2022 njengoba ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine kanye nokuvalwa kwezindawo okuhlobene nobhubhane eChina kungase kubhebhethekise izinkinga zokuhlinzekwa kwempahla. Ukwengeza, i-FOMC ihlela ukunciphisa ishidi layo lebhalansi ngenani elisheshayo elihlobene nezibikezelo zangaphambilini
- Ngenkathi imakethe ekuqaleni yayibonakala ikwazi ukumelana nempi yase-Ukraine futhi ukuqhubeka nokushoda kwe-supply chain e-China kuyaqhubeka, izinkomba ezinkulu zehle kakhulu kusukela ngo-2020. Lokhu kubangelwa izinga le-Federal Funds elikhuphuka ngamaphuzu angu-50 ngoMeyi 4.th, 2022. Ngokusebenzisa imali encishisiwe emakethe, ukuntengantenga kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke ukwanda kuze kube yilapho i-Fed ingakwazi ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi iguqule inqubomgomo yayo yemali.
- Ukwengeza, ukushoda kwempahla kwenzeka njengoba ukukhiqizwa kungakwazanga ukuhambisana nokunyuka kwesidingo esisheshayo, kuyilapho ukuncishiswa kwamaketanga okuhlinzeka kuqhubekisela phambili ukukhiqizwa kwengcindezi. Ngenxa yalokho, abatshalizimali bashintshele ekutshaleni imali ezinsimbi eziyigugu, ikakhulukazi igolide, ngenxa yemakethe eguquguqukayo.
Ukusatshalaliswa kwezilinganiso zobungozi
- Izilinganiso zobungozi zango-2019 zaziseduze nokusatshalaliswa ngokujwayelekile.
- U-7% wezimboni zikalwe njengengozi ephakathi nendawo noma enkulu.
- Ubungozi ngo-2020 babugxile ekugcineni kwesikali ngenxa yokuqala kwalolu bhubhane.
- U-9% wezimboni zikalwe njengengozi ephakathi nendawo noma enkulu.
- Ubungozi ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuthi bube namandla njengoba imikhawulo idamba kakhulu.
- U-1% wezimboni zikalwe njengengozi ephakathi nendawo noma enkulu
- Umbono wobungozi kulindeleke ukuthi uthuthuke kakhulu ngo-2022, uma umnotho usuvulwe kabusha ngokugcwele.
- U-7% wezimboni zikalwe njengengozi ephakathi nendawo noma enkulu.

Izithombe ezinhle kakhulu zomkhakha
- Indawo yokuhlala kanye Nezinsiza Zokudla - Umkhakha Wezindawo Zokuhlala kanye Nezinkonzo Zokudla usuke emkhakheni oyingozi kakhulu ngo-2020 waya kweminye yezindawo eziyingozi kakhulu ngo-2022. Lokhu kuthuthukiswa kwenziwe lula ukuncishiswa kwemithetho kanye nokukhathazeka kwabathengi okuphinde kwavela phakathi nokuqala kokuhlukahluka kwe-coronavirus. Ukunciphisa imikhawulo kwenze kwaba lula ukukhula ezimbonini ezifana Izindawo zokudlela zeChain, Amabhawa nama-nightclub futhi Indawo Eyodwa Yezindawo zokudlela ezinesevisi egcwele.
- Ezokuthutha kanye Nokugcinwa Kwempahla - Ukulandela isidingo sezokuthutha esikhuphuka ngokushesha kwikota edlule, umkhakha wezokuThutha kanye ne-Warehousing uqhubekile nokuba umshayeli wokukhula komnotho. Kodwa-ke, ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain kanye nokukhuphuka kwentengo kaphethiloli kukhuphule izindleko kubasebenzisi kulo mkhakha.
- Ukwakhiwa - Naphezu kokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo ngo-2022 ezikhuphula izindleko zokuboleka zamaphrojekthi wokwakha, uxhaso lwe-IIJA kulindeleke ukuthi luqhubekisele phambili umsebenzi wokwakha okungeyona indawo yokuhlala ngo-2022. Ikakhulukazi, i-IIJA cishe izohlomula Ukwakhiwa Kolayini Wamanzi Nendle; Ukwakhiwa Kwemigwaqo Nomgwaqo Omkhulu; futhi Ibhuloho kanye Nokwakhiwa Kwemigwaqo Ephakeme
- Ukuhweba Ngezitolo- Ukusetshenziswa kwezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside kwehlisiwe phakathi nekota, okucindezela isidingo sezimboni ezibalulekile zokuthengisa kuyilapho abathengi benyusa imali esetshenziswayo ezimpahleni ezingalungiseki. Ukukhuphuka kwentengo yegesi kukhuphule imali engenayo Izikhungo Zamagesi futhi Amagalaji Kaphethiloli anezitolo Ezilula izimboni, ikakhulukazi njengoba lezi zikhungo sezidlulisele ekunyuseni amanani ahlobene ne-supply chain kubathengi. Ukunyuka kwamanani okudla kukhuphule imali engenayo Imboni yezitolo ezinkulu kanye nezitolo zokudlakuyilapho kucindezela inzuzo njengoba izikhungo zisalokhu zimanqikanqika ukudlulisela ukuntengantenga kwentengo kubathengi.
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