I-Ins and Outs of Australia's Trade in the Wake of Pandemic

Ukuthatha okubalulekile:

• Ukuphazamiseka kobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe kuya ngokuya kuyancipha, kwethule abathumeli bangaphandle amathuba okwandisa izimakethe zabo zamazwe ngamazwe.

• Sekuba lula ukuthola okokufaka phesheya futhi, kuhlomulisa abakhiqizi abangenisa impahla, kodwa kuvimbela izimboni ezibhekene nokuncintisana okukhulu kubakhiqizi bangaphandle.

• Yize kusobala ukuthi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kukunqobile ukuphazamiseka kobhubhane lwe-COVID-19, amathuba amasha nezinsongo ziye zaziveza kubathumeli abavela kwamanye amazwe kanye nabathumela ngaphandle e-Australia, kwashintsha ngokuphawulekayo ukubukeka kwendawo yokuhweba yamazwe ngamazwe.

Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 lwangazinzi izimakethe zomhlaba kanye ukunikezela ngamaketanga. Umthelela wawukabili. Okokuqala, amafekthri avala noma asebenza ngamakhono ancishisiwe enza buthaka amanani okukhiqiza, ikakhulukazi e-China, okuholela ekubambezelekeni kokulethwa kanye nobunzima bokuthola imikhiqizo. Okwesibili, ukukhuphuka kwesidingo sezimpahla kukhinyabeze amanethiwekhi ezokuthutha abebhekene kanye nemiphumela yezinyathelo zokuvikela ukutheleleka kubasebenzi kanye nemisebenzi. Umthelela ezimbonini zase-Australia wawuhlukahlukene, abanye baze bazuza emisebenzini yohwebo ephansi.

Ngenkathi okunye ukuphazamiseka kwalolu bhubhane kusaqhubeka, akungabazeki ukuthi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe omhlaba sekubuyile ekuwohlokeni kwe-COVID-19. Eqinisweni, inani lokuhweba kwezimpahla nezinsizakalo zase-Australia lango-2021-22 lidlule kakhulu izilinganiso ezibekwe ngo-2018-19. Isamba senani lezimpahla nezinsizakalo ezingenisiwe nezithunyelwe kwamanye amazwe ngo-2021-22 laliphezulu ngo-18.1% uma liqhathaniswa nowezi-2018-19, ngaphambi kokuthi ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 lushaqise ukuhweba komhlaba wonke. Okunye kwalokhu kukhula kungabangelwa ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kubuyiselwa kokuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kudalwe kakhulu ekumbozweni komuthi wokugomela i-COVID-19 okunciphisa ukwanda kokuvalwa kwezindawo kanye neminye imikhawulo ehlobene nobhubhane.

Ukungenisa

Ngo-2019-20 kanye no-2020-21, amabhizinisi amaningi okukhiqiza abhekane nobunzima bokuthola okokufaka nezinsizakalo ezidingekayo ukukhiqiza izimpahla. Ngokwesibonelo, a ukushoda kwe-semiconductor ibe nomthelela omkhulu kumafemu embonini Yokukhiqiza Izimoto. Ukushoda kwempahla efana nalokhu kuthinta imboni esheshayo ephakela izimpahla ezivela phesheya kwezilwandle, kodwa futhi kuba nomthelela omubi emnothweni. Ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kwezimoto emhlabeni jikelele kusho ukuthi abashayeli embonini yabadayisi bezimoto kanye nemboni yeMotor Vehicle Wholesaling inesitoko esilinganiselwe sokuthengiswa ezimbonini ezifana nemboni yezokuthutha ezithwala impahla emgwaqeni. Lesi isibonelo esisodwa senkambiso eyenzeka emikhakheni eyahlukene yezomnotho kulandela ukugqashuka kwe-COVID-19.

Kusho ukuthini ukubuyisela izinto ezingenisiwe emabhizinisini ase-Australia?

Ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kwezohwebo kuza njengezindaba ezamukelekayo kumabhizinisi ase-Australia angenisa okokufaka kwawo kubakhiqizi baphesheya kwezilwandle. Isibonelo, ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla yokwakha emhlabeni jikelele, njengamapulangwe, insimbi kanye nengilazi, sekushaye abashayeli Ukwahlukanisa kanzima. Ukutholakala okulinganiselwe kwalezi zinto ezifakiwe kuphazamise umsebenzi wokwakha futhi kwabeka ingcindezi ekhuphukayo ezindlekweni zokuthenga, ezihlanganisa ngaphezu kwengxenye yesakhiwo sezindleko zeDivishini Yokwakha. Ikakhulukazi, lezi zingcindezi zihlasela House Construction industry kanzima, okunomthelela ekwenyukeni kwesimo sokungakhokhi kahle phakathi kwabaqhubi.

Ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kwezohwebo kufanele kunikeze ithuba kubathekelisi ukuthi bathole okokufaka okushibhile ngokuvula ukukhetha okukhulu kubahlinzeki bangaphandle. Lokhu kukhetha okunwetshiwe kwabahlinzeki kukhulisa amandla entengo kubathengi futhi kunciphisa ingcindezi ezimbonini ezithembele kakhulu kokufakwayo okuvela kwamanye amazwe. Amafemu angakwazi ukusebenzisa lawa mandla anyukile okuthenga anganciphisa izindleko zawo zokukhiqiza futhi andise ama-margins awo.

Ngokuphambene, lokhu kukhuphuka komsebenzi wokungenisa ezweni kuzothinta kabi izimboni zase-Australia eziqhudelana nezinto ezithengwayo. Njengoba ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zezimpahla kanye nobunzima bokuthola izimpahla ezivela phesheya kwezilwandle kuhlasela amabhizinisi ase-Australia, amafemu amaningi aya ngokuya ethola imikhiqizo yasekhaya, isidingo esikhulayo samafemu ase-Australia ahlinzeka ngempahla. Izimboni ezimbalwa zokukhiqiza ezincintisana kakhulu nezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle futhi ezihlinzeka ngokuyinhloko imakethe yasekhaya ezithole inzuzo ekhulayo ngo-2020-21, okuhlanganisa:

• Ukusikwa Nokuthungwa Komkhiqizo Wezindwangu
• Ukukhiqizwa Kwezicathulo
• Ukwenziwa Kwezisetshenziswa Zezokwelapha Nezokuhlinza
• Imishini Yezolimo kanye Nokukhiqiza Izinsizakusebenza
• Ukukhiqiza Umatilasi

Njengoba ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain kuba lula, lokhu kukhululwa kwesikhashana emqhudelwaneni wokungenisa impahla kungase kunciphe. Kodwa-ke, ubudlelwano obusha phakathi kwabangenisa impahla ngaphandle nabahlinzeki basekhaya bunganikeza abahlinzeki ithuba lokuqhubeka nalobu budlelwano esikhathini esizayo ngokunikeza isevisi ephezulu kanye nemikhiqizo yekhwalithi ephezulu.

Kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe

Amabhizinisi amaningi emkhakheni wezolimo, ezamahlathi nezokudoba, ezezimayini kanye nezokukhiqiza athola ingxenye enkulu yemali engenayo ezimakethe ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Ngesikhathi sokuqala kwalolu bhubhane, izinkampani ezithumela kwamanye amazwe zazizabalaza ukuhambisa imikhiqizo ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe ngendlela engabizi futhi efika ngesikhathi ngenxa yokuntuleka kwamandla olwandle nomoya okuthutha, okucindezela imali engenayo.

Kusho ukuthini ukubuyisela okuthunyelwa ngaphandle emabhizinisini ase-Australia?

Ukuncipha kancane kancane kokuphazamiseka kanye nokuxhunywa kabusha kwamaketango okunikezwayo emhlabeni wonke kunikeza abathumeli bangaphandle ithuba lokuzuza ekudingeni okulindile kwezimpahla namasevisi ase-Australia. Ikakhulukazi, uphiko lwezezimayini luhlomule kulo isidingo esinamandla kanye namanani akhuphukayo. I-Australia ingumhwebi ophelele wezimpahla, cishe u-70% kuya ku-75% womkhiqizo wophiko lwezezimayini othunyelwa kwamanye amazwe unyaka nonyaka. Imali engenayo yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe yehlile emkhakheni webhizinisi lezolimo phakathi neminyaka emibili kuze kube ngu-2020-21. Kodwa-ke, isidingo esinamandla saphesheya kwezilwandle somkhiqizo wase-Australia kanye nezimo ezivumayo zokukhula kwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubekisele phambili ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kule minyaka emibili ngo-2022-23.

Ukwengeza ekubuyiseni amaketango okunikezela okusiza ukukhula kwezohwebo, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kungase kuzuzise abakhiqizi bezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside abangakwazi ukuthengisa imikhiqizo ngesikhathi sobhubhane. Abanye abathumeli bangaphandle bangase bakwazi ukuthengisa izimpahla ngamanani aphakeme kunalawo abebengaba nawo eminyakeni emibili edlule, njengoba ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali yasabalala kuwo wonke umnotho womhlaba.

Nakuba lezi kuyizindaba ezinhle kubathumeli bangaphandle, kungaba izindaba ezimbi kumafemu asekhaya ahlomule kubathumeli bangaphandle abahlinzeka ngemakethe yasekhaya kuyilapho ukufinyelela kwabo ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe kuvinjelwe. Isibonelo, izimboni zasekhaya ezithenga izinto zokusetshenziswa engxenyeni yezezimayini kanye nomkhakha webhizinisi lezolimo zingase ziphazamiseke, njengoba abahlinzeki bazo bethola isidingo futhi bangakhipha amanani aphezulu kubathengi baphesheya kwezilwandle. Izibonelo zalezi zimboni ezithintekayo zifaka:

• Ukuncibilika Kwensimbi kanye Nokukhiqiza Insimbi
• I-Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation
• Ukuhlinzekwa Kwgesi
• Izimboni zokukhiqiza imikhiqizo yokudla
• Izimboni zokukhiqiza iziphuzo

Ukubuya kwesidingo esivela ezimakethe zangaphandle kungase kuqhube amafemu athumela kwamanye amazwe ukuthi anyuse amanani futhi anciphise ukuhlinzekwa kwamafemu asekhaya. Lezi zinkampani zasekhaya zidinga ukulungiselela lolu shintsho futhi zihlole ezinye izinketho zazo zokuhlinzeka, njengokungenisa kwamanye amazwe kusuka phesheya.

Indawo eshintshayo

Yize kuphephile ukusho ukuthi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kwe-Australia sekubuyile, isimo samanje sohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe asikho 'esivamile'. Izehlakalo zeminyaka emithathu edlule zibe nomthelela omkhulu ekusungulweni komsebenzi wokuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe e-Australia, ngokuziphatha kwabathengi, amaketanga okuhlinzeka kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwezindawo zohwebo ezishintsha kakhulu. Amafemu kumele aqhubeke nokuzivumelanisa nezimo, njengoba ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ludale izinsongo eziningi eziqhubekayo emisebenzini yezohwebo, njengokushoda kwabasebenzi, amanani entengo aphezulu, kanye nethuba lokuqubuka kwe-COVID-19 ukuphazamisa ukukhiqizwa kwamanye amazwe, kanye nezinsongo ezintsha ziyaqhubeka nokuvela, njengokungqubuzana kweRussia-Ukraine kanye nokungezwani kwezohwebo neChina.

Ashintshe kanjani amaketanga?

Isikhathi eside, izinkathazo eziyinhloko zamafemu lapho zilawula uchungechunge lwazo lokuhlinzeka zazisebenza kahle kanye nokunciphisa izindleko. Umqedazwe we-COVID-19 uphoqe amabhizinisi ukuthi acabange kabusha leli qhinga njengoba ebona ukuthi amaketanga abo okuhlinzeka asengozini kangakanani ekuphazamisekeni komhlaba. Nakuba ukuncishiswa kwezindleko kusabalulekile, ikhono le-supply chain kanye nokuqina sekubaluleke kakhulu ukuqinisekisa ukuthi amafemu angasabela ngokushesha ezenzakalweni ezingalindelekile futhi agweme inhlekelele.

Amafemu angathuthukisa ukuqina kwawo ngokuhlukanisa amanethiwekhi awo wokuhlinzeka. Kubalulekile ukuthi ungahloli ubungozi emthonjeni oyinhloko kuphela, kodwa nokuhlola ubungozi emazingeni amaningi ochungechunge lokuhlinzeka. Ukusetshenziswa kwamanethiwekhi okunikezela ngedijithali kungasiza amabhizinisi ehlise ukuba sengozini kwamaketango awo okuhlinzeka. Abathekelisi nabathumela ngaphandle bakhulise ukubonakala phakathi kwamaketanga abo okuhlinzeka ngokusheshisa amathrendi enguquko yedijithali. Lokhu kubavumela ukuba bathole ulwazi olunembile nolufika ngesikhathi, olubalulekile ekwenzeni izinqumo ezisheshayo neziphumelelayo.

Kushintshe kanjani ukuziphatha kwabathengi?

Ekuqaleni kwalolu bhubhane, abaningi babecabanga ukuthi ukwehla kwezentengiselwano kuzoholela ekuncipheni kwembulunga yonke kanye nokwehla kwezindleko zabathengi. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, izitayela ziye zafakazela ngokuqinile ukuthi lezo zibikezelo azilungile. Ngokusho kwe-ABS, ukusetshenziswa kwezindlu kukhuphuke ngo-18.4% ezinyangeni eziyi-12 kuya kuJulayi 2022, naphezu kokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nezinga lenzalo elikhuphukayo linyusa izindleko zengcindezi yokuphila kubathengi.

I-Homehold Spending Index manje idlula amabhentshimakhi angaphambi kobhubhane kuzo zonke izigaba zokusebenzisa imali. Isidingo esinamandla sokuhwebelana kwezimpahla, ngaphezu kwemiphumela yangemva kobhubhane lwe-COVID-19, senyuse amanani entengo yempahla emhlabeni jikelele. Izintengo eziphakeme zempahla ziyaqhubeka nokubekela amabhizinisi ahweba ngamazwe inselelo, ngokuvamile okubacindezela ukuba badlule lezo zindleko zokwenyuka komfula ukuze kugwenywe ukuqinisa umkhawulo wenzuzo.

Kushintshe kanjani ukusatshalaliswa kwendawo yohwebo?

Ukusatshalaliswa kwezindawo zohwebo lwase-Australia kushintshe kakhulu. Ngo-2018-19, i-China yabalelwa ku-36.0% wezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zase-Australia, zehla zaya ku-32.1% ngo-2021-22. Ukungezwani kwezohwebo kuholele ekwenyukeni kwentela, futhi kwezinye izimo ukuvinjelwa ngokuphelele, kweminye imikhiqizo yase-Australia. Lolu shintsho luphoqe abanye abangenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe ukuthi bathole abalingani bokuhweba abahlukile.

Amazwe asesifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific abe ngabalingani bezentengiselwano abakhula ngamandla e-Australia kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, futhi lo mkhuba ukhule ngesivinini phakathi nobhadane lwe-COVID-19. Amazwe amaningi akulesi sifunda angamanye eminotho ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu emhlabeni futhi kungenzeka aqhubeke nokuba ozakwethu ababalulekile bezohwebo e-Australia kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. Abathekelisi nabathumela ngaphandle abaqondise lezi zimakethe bangakwazi ukuthola amathuba amasha okwehlisa izindleko nokusungula ubudlelwano bokuhweba obuthembekile.

Outlook

Umqedazwe we-COVID-19 ubangele izinguquko eziningi zesakhiwo ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe, futhi nakuba kungaziwa ukuthi yini ezohlala eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, kuqinisekile ukuthi isimo sezwe ngeke sibuyele kulokho esasiyikho ngo-2018-19. Ukukhula kuzohamba kancane eminyakeni embalwa ezayo njengoba imiphumela yokuphindaphindeka kwangemva kobhubhane incipha. Noma kunjalo, i-Australia kungenzeka ihlale iyizwe elithembele kakhulu kwezohwebo. Izingozi ezintsha namathuba amabhizinisi azolokhu evela ngenxa yomnotho wase-Australia ohweba kakhulu emhlabeni.

Umthombo ovela Ibisworld

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