Ucwaningo lwakamuva lwe-Fraunhofer ISE lubiza i-PV Ebekwe Ground-Mounted & Onshore Wind Ebiza Kakhulu Uma Iqhathaniswa Nazo Zonke Izitsha Zamandla
Izitoreji Eziyinhloko
- Izimangalo zakamuva zocwaningo lwe-Fraunhofer ISE zelanga namandla omoya njengamanje ubuchwepheshe obungabizi kakhulu kuzo zonke izimboni zamandla
- Ngisho nenhlanganisela yokugcina ibhethri, amasistimu e-PV akhiqiza ugesi ngenani eliphansi kunezimboni zamandla zamalahle noma ezibaswa ngegesi.
- Lolu cwaningo luphinde lubikezele i-LCOE yobuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene ngo-2045, ngokusho ukuthi i-LCOE yezinto ezivuselelekayo kungenzeka iqhubeke nokuwa kuze kube ngu-2045.
Amasistimu we-solar PV abekwe phansi kanye nezinjini zomoya zasogwini eJalimane okwamanje anenani elilinganisiwe likagesi (i-LCOE) lika-€0.041/kWh ukuya ku-€0.144/kWh, okwenza lobu buchwepheshe bungabizi kakhulu phakathi kwazo zonke izinhlobo zezitshalo zamandla okuhlanganisa namandla avuselelekayo.
Amasistimu we-Solar PV manje akhiqiza ugesi ngemali eshibhile kakhulu kunezimboni zamandla zamalahle noma zegesi, ngisho kuhlanganiswa nokugcinwa kwebhethri, ngokohlelo lwakamuva locwaningo Izindleko Ezisezingeni Likagesi: I-Renewable Energy Technologies nguFraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE.
Ngamasistimu elanga + okugcina ibhethri, i-LCOE iyahlukahluka phakathi kuka-€0.06/kWh kuya ku-€0.225/kWh, ngokokuhlaziya kwesikhungo. Ibalula ububanzi obubanzi umehluko omkhulu wezindleko zamasistimu ebhethri asukela ku-€400/MWh kanye no-€1,000 MWh, kuhlanganiswe nokwehluka kwezindleko zezinhlelo ze-PV kanye namazinga ahlukahlukene okukhipha imisebe yelanga endaweni yesistimu.
NgokoMbhali Oholayo wocwaningo kanye neNhloko Yomnyango Wokuhlaziywa Kwesistimu Yamandla kwa-Fraunhofer ISE, uDkt. Christoph Kost, i-LCOE yezinto ezivuselelekayo izoqhubeka nokuwa kuze kube ngu-2045. Ezinhlelweni ezincane ze-PV eziphahleni, i-LCOE izoba phakathi kuka-€0.049/kWh kanye ne-€0.104/kWh izofakwa ngaphakathi kwe-PV, kuyilapho kumasistimu aphansi e-PV, kuyilapho amasistimu e-PV ephansi. €0.031/kWh futhi €0.050/kWh ngo-2045.
Umcwaningi weFraunhofer ISE kanye noCo-Author wocwaningo, uDkt. Verena Fluri wengeze, “Ngisho nezinhlelo zebhethri ezincane ze-PV zingafinyelela izindleko zokukhiqiza ugesi phakathi kwamasenti angu-7 no-19 nge-kilowatt ngehora ngaleso sikhathi, inqobo nje uma izintengo zezinhlelo zokugcina amabhethri ziwela kulokho okucatshangwayo ukuthi ama-euro angu-180 kuya ku-700 nge-kilowatt ngehora.”
Ngokombiko, kusukela ngo-2024, i-LCOE yazo zonke izinhlelo ze-PV ngaphandle kwesitoreji sebhethri izoba ngaphansi kuka-€0.15/kWh.
Ngo-2045, izintengo zezinhlelo ze-PV zizokwehla zibe ngaphansi kuka-€460/kW ngokufakwa phansi, futhi zibe phakathi kuka-€660/kW kanye no-€1,306/kW kumasistimu amancane, ngokusho kwabahlaziyi.
Umbiko ufundeka kanje, “Ngonyaka wezi-2035, ukuphehlwa kukagesi ohlelweni lwebhethri ye-PV kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzobiza kakhulu ngokwesilinganiso kunasembonini yamandla kagesi ejikelezayo ehlanganisiwe. Ngo-2045, ngisho namasistimu ebhethri amancane e-PV angazuza i-LCOE phakathi kuka-7 no-19 € cents/kWh, kucatshangwa ukuthi amanani okugcinwa kwebhethri ehla abe yibanga eliqageliwe lika-180 kuya ku-700 EUR/kWh.”
Ngokusho kwababhali bombiko:
- Izintengo zezinhlelo ze-PV kulindeleke ukuthi zehle ngo-2045, okungenzeka zehle zibe ngaphansi kuka-€460/kW kumasistimu agibele phansi naphakathi kuka-€660/kW kanye no-€1306/kW kumasistimu amancane.
- Ngo-2035, ukuphehlwa kukagesi ohlelweni lwebhethri ye-PV kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzobiza kakhulu ngokwesilinganiso kunasesikhungweni samandla esiphehla ugesi esiwumjikelezo ohlanganisiwe.
- Ngo-2045, ngisho namasistimu amancane ebhethri le-PV angazuza i-LCOE phakathi kuka-€0.07 no-€1.9/kWh, kucatshangwa ukuthi amanani okugcinwa kwebhethri ehla abe yibanga eliqageliwe elingu-€180/kWh ukuya ku-€700/kWh.
Uma kuqhathaniswa, i-LCOE yezinjini zomoya ezintsha zasogwini ezakhiwe ngo-2045 zingakhiqiza ugesi phakathi kuka-€0.037/kWh kanye no-€0.079/kWh ngenxa yenani eliphezulu lamahora omthwalo ogcwele kanye nezinjini zomoya ezinkulu.
UFraunhofer usebenzisa amamodeli ejika lokufunda kubuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene, izimo zemakethe, nentuthuko yemakethe yesikhathi esizayo, ukulinganisa intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo ukuze abikezele i-LCOE kuze kube ngu-2045.
“Kunokungaqiniseki mayelana nentuthuko yemakethe yangempela engafezeka ngo-2045 kubo bonke ubuchwepheshe. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe eminyakeni ezayo kuzoncika kakhulu ekusetshenzisweni kwezinjongo zesimo sezulu saseParis. Kodwa-ke, ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe kwangempela kobuchwepheshe ngamunye kubalulekile ngesikhathi sokwehla kwezindleko kumodeli yejika lokufunda, "kusho ababhali bombiko.
Njengoba ishicilelwe kusukela ngo-2012, uhlelo lwakamuva lombiko luyatholakala ukuze lulandwe mahhala ku-Fraunhofer ISE's. iwebhusayithi.
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